OHweather Blog

Thanksgiving Cool Down...Will it Really Happen or is it Model Fantasy?

2009-11-13T21:12:00.007-05:00

GFS hints at big cold and possible storm last week of November. Is it possible, or will the cool down be less severe with less of a chance of a storm?

...stratosphere still warming...still looks like this could eventually downwell into an east based -NAO, and a -AO/-EPO. However, we'll see if this warming continues and if it eventually downwells into a 500mb block...

There are two possible issues here.

1. The development (or lack there of) of a Polar Vortex. The 12z GFS develops a big one, and displaces it due to a -NAO and HUGE +PNA into SE Canada causing by far the coldest air of the young winter...

Right now though there is no sign of a PV anywhere over the western hemisphere:

And, with an overall +NAO/+EPO/-PNA pattern persisting for at least the next 10 days I'm not sure if we'll see some sort of big storm occur that forms into a PV...right now the Euro has no signs of a PV at 240 hours, and still has a very +EPO/NAO, with a neutral-negative PNA:

And, while the ECM does have a S/W over the Plains at 240 hours, it isn't nearly as deep as the one the GFS has at 240 hours...this S/W gets pulled into the GFS's PV...there is also no sign of a deep PV over the N. Pole at 240 hours on the ECM, although it's there on the GFS:

So, big model differences at 10 days out...the GFS has a huge PV with a trough sitting over the Plains that eventually deepens as the PV becomes displaced...the GFS also has a developing +PNA at day 10 although it isn't too strong yet...the Euro is vastly different with the Pac pattern...so, getting to the Pac pattern, my next big concern:

2. The Pac jet will be ripping for at least the next 10 days. The GFS slows it down by day 16, but at day 10 the ECM shows no sign of weakening the +EPO and slowing the Pac jet down...the GFS ensemble members are different from the op in this matter as well, and do not slow down the pac jet that much either, and don't have a huge PV over SE Canada either...right now, there is some tropical forcing over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This may be strengthening the Hadley cell over the central/eastern Pacific and be the reason for the raging Pac jet right now...the EWP model shows this persisting for at least 10-15 days...

If this is the case the Pac jet will not slow down and allow for a huge Turkey day cool down like the GFS is showing...note that a lot of the ensemble members still show a strong Pac jet at the end of the run (FWIW at this point), and only like 2 or 3 other members (out of 11 pertributions that are different than the GFS) show a displaced PV making it into SE Canada:

The GFS (upper left) is the most negative with the NAO, most negative with the EPO, and by FAR the most positive with the +PNA...this should throw up a red flag that the cool down the GFS is continuing to show near the end of its run is very possibly complete fantasy...what may be happening is the GFS is seeing the stratospheric warming and down welling it too quickly.

So, despite the stratosphere warming there still are no guarantees of a big cool down. While the warming continues to strengthen, we don't know when the warming may downwell into high latitude blocks, and where they may occur. FWIW, the strongest warming does appear to be over western Canada/Alaska/N. Pacific. If the strong block ends up here, over Alaska/Aleutians, this could cause the cold to end up over the west/MW when the Pac jet does relax some, especially if the we don't get a Greenland block out of this. FWIW, there is some good stratospheric warming over like the Iceland/UK area, if we get a block there it may be an east based block. Again, no guarantee for cold over the east. If we get the best tropical forcing to be focused near the dateline as this warming downwells into high latitude blocking in 2-4 weeks, then we may indeed get a Greenland block to form. However, there is definitely no guarantee of that happening, and right now the pattern doesn't look good for cold, especially over the east as we end November and head into the beginning of December.

NOTE: TO ANYONE STILL VIEWING THIS BLOG

2009-03-02T01:34:00.001-05:00

Since I see on the good ol' hit counter that a few people are still viewing this once and a while, I guess I should point you to my new site that I update more often:
http://ohweather.weebly.com/index.html
Hope to see you there

-Ohweather

Lake Effect Sunday-Sunday Night

2008-10-25T16:33:00.003-04:00

Since lake effect can be so “fun” to predict, I am not going to try and summarize a multiple day lake effect event in one map. Instead, I am going to try to be as precise as possible for the 24-36 hour out range, so I am just going to issue a map for the next day. Here is the map for snow valid from 12z Sunday-12z Monday. It should be noted that the amounts shown are the amounts I expect to fall. In most cases the accumulations will be lighter.

A cold front will sweep through the area Sunday. It will come through the western Lakes Sunday Morning, the central lakes (Huron, Erie) Sunday afternoon, and the eastern Lakes (from Buffalo east) Sunday night. It will usher in much colder air, and will set off some lake effect. However, the air will not be all that cold behind the initial front. What could set off some major lake effect is a S/W that will rotate through 12-18 hours behind the front.

By late Sunday afternoon over the UP of Michigan/far NE Wisconson H850 will range from –2 to –6C. There will also be an upper low sitting to the NE of the area. This should be good enough to get lake effect rain/snow. During the day tomorrow I don’t foresee much accumulation across the UP, and the precip should be mixed, as air temps will still be in the mid-upper 30s. There could be some light accumulations across the higher elevations in the far NW corner of the UP, but other than that there shouldn’t be any accums. However, the winds will be whipping so it will be very nasty. Over the eastern UP the 850MB temps will likely be too warm, around –3C and there isn’t too much higher terrain, so the eastern UP will probably see mainly rain through tomorrow afternoon.

Sunday night surface temps will cool to the low-mid 30s across the UP, and 850MB temps will cool to the –5 to –10C range over the UP. This should change most of the precip over to snow over the western UP, especially over the higher terrain. The snow could be somewhat intense because there will be moderate lake induced instability, plenty of moisture in place, and a high inversion layer. The only limiting factor will be a somewhat limited fetch, but still several inches of snow is likely in the higher elevations of the western UP Sunday night, except for near the lakeshore. Farther east where 850MB temps will be a little warmer and there is less higher terrain the precip will probably remain mainly a rain/snow mix most of the night, but the precip should be pretty heavy so some slushy accumulations are possible, but nothing too significant.

Over the lower peninsula of Michigan the surface temps and upper level temps should remain a few degrees too warm for snow during the day Sunday, and there will be some subsidence behind the front. So tomorrow over the LP of Michigan don’t expect any snow, and only a few showers with the frontal passage.

Late Sunday evening though a S/W will start moving through the northern LP of Michigan, so by 6z Monday there should be some lake effect starting to set up over the northern LP (in and around Gaylord) behind the S/W. Precip type will still be an issue though as air temps will fall into the mid-upper 30s and 850s will only fall to around –5C, so a rain/snow mix seems likely. The fetch won’t be particularly long, but there will be moderate lake induced CAPE and there will be some decent moisture in place, along with a pretty high inversion layer so the precip will be somewhat intense. With that said, so areas inland from Lake Michigan over the northern LP could see some light slushy accums, but nothing significant.

Farther south in MI, the S/W probably will not get there until late Sunday night, but there could still be some light lake effect rain/snow before that, but again temps will be marginal. Later at night as the S/W comes through the precip will pick up in intensity as 850MB temps fall to around –6C, and there is increased moisture and lift as the S/W comes through. Temps will still be marginal, but this looks like one of those “snow when the precip is heavy and drizzle when it’s light” situations late Sunday night over southern Michigan. There could be some light slushy accumulations over southern Michigan as well where the heaviest precip falls, but again nothing to heavy.

Downwind of Lake Erie it won’t get cold enough for snow until late Sunday evening. However, by late Sunday night a southwest flow will develop with 850MB temps of –3 to –6, so western NY (including Buffalo) should get some pretty heavy lake effect precip Sunday night. However, temps really don’t look good for snows. Surface temps still in the mid-upper 30s and 850s only down to –4 or so over western NY, so I think most of the precip will be rain in the Buffalo area Sunday night. There will be some snow/grapple mixing with the rain in Buffalo metro, but nothing should stick. In the higher elevations just south of the city there could be some more snow mixing in, and maybe some slushy coatings, but it really looks like the heaviest precip could go north of there, more towards Buffalo, so even the hill tops south of Buffalo shouldn’t get much more than a couple inches, and lower elevations near Buffalo shouldn’t get much accumulation at all, at least through Sunday night.

Downwind of Lake Ontario it could barley get cold enough late Sunday night to get some snow mixing in with any precip in the higher elevations downwind of Lake Ontario (Tug Hill).

For areas south of the lake effect zones (Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, northern PA) there could be some light mixed rain/snow Sunday night as the S/W mentioned above a few times comes through. No accumulations expected in these areas, however.

Note: S/W=shortwave, which is basically just a weak cold front.

Note: I don't expect much snow downwind of Lake Superior in Canada through Sunday night as temps will remain too warm.

The Lake effect won't stop on Monday though. It will continue through Wednesday. I will make forecasts for it one day at a time like I have done for Sunday.

New Post Coming Fairly Soon

2008-09-30T20:48:00.002-04:00

I know I haven't posted since Saturday, but I am usually pretty busy. The forecast I posted Saturday so far looks like it's going to verify halfway decently so I see no reason to sneak in an update, and there really aren't any major storms over the next couple days that need our attention, I'm not going to post because I don't have too much free time to work with...but on Friday (late in the day) I will have another detailed extended forecast.

So...Last Night I Laid out Where the Troughs and Ridges Would Be

2008-09-27T09:24:00.002-04:00

Here are the regions the forecast discusion below covers...look for your region below...regions are bolded.

So now I am going to lay out what those troughs and ridges will do to the weather each part of the country will be seeing:
NW: Remaining dry and warming up through Wednesday. Then by Thursday, as everything starts shifting east you should start seeing some cooler and wetter weather from the trough that will be building over the NW. Cool and unsettled conditions should last through next weekend.
SW: What fall? Should remain warm and dry. Next weekend however as the trough really digs off the NW coast there could be enough moisture for some rain across northern California and Nevada.
Upper Midwest: There currently is a front moving through eastern MN/IA and into WI. That is bringing some showers/thunderstorms to that area today, and will continue to this afternoon, before clearing out and cooling off tonight...the rest of the Upper Midwest should remain dry with near normal temps today and tonight, but tomorrow a cold front will start pushing through. Expect some showers with the front but nothing too heavy. Behind the front it should dry out but will be much cooler, 10-15 (50s for highs) degrees below normal. There will likely some frosts/freezes over the Midwest Tuesday morning, especially over northern Minnesota. Tuesday will remain cool and dry but Wednesday another S/W will rotate around the cut-off low over Canada, so on Wednesday expect some clouds and maybe a few sprinkles, along with some breezy conditions. Then Wednesday night after the S/W comes through the bottom falls out and much of the upper Midwest sees frosts/freezes. Thursday will be dry but cool...Thursday night the winds will be even light than Wednesday night so we will be able to radiotionally cool down better Thursday night, so widespread HARD FREEZES are very possible Friday morning...but on Friday temps should rebound back into the 50s and will be dry, but again Friday night/Saturday morning there could be widespread freezes over the upper Midwest. By Sunday, the trough over the east will begin lifting out so temps should start to moderate. But, the trough and cool weather will take the Canadian high pressure with it, so the chances for precip will increase by next Sunday over the upper Midwest.
Southern Planes/Texas: The northern portions of this region (Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas) will see some showers and a cool down as the front moves through and a trough sets up over the east. But, the ridge over the west should prevent an extreme cool down, so frosts/freezes are unlikely anywhere in this region. Farther south over Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana the ridge over the west should extend into these areas, so they will remain dry and warm through the next week.
Great Lakes: The northern Lakes will be impacted by a cold front today, which will usher in some cooler air (highs in the 60s) and may cause a few showers/storms over northern MI/WI today/tonight as it passes, but nothing huge. The southern lakes should remain seasonable and dry today and Sunday, except for eastern OH, PA, and NY where an upper low over the east should cause some showers, heaviest over NY and central PA where over .5" may fall. Then on Monday things remain interesting, as a strong cold front approaches the western Lakes. On Monday western MI and WI should see scattered showers/storms as the front comes through, and Monday night those areas will cool into the 40s, and the northern/western Lakes could start seeing some Lake effect rain setting up. The rest of the lakes Monday will be dry and seasonable. But, on Tuesday the front will clear the rest of the lakes. Again, a few showers/storms and breezy conditions will be associated with the front, but moisture and instability will be limited so they won't get out of control. So, on Tuesday MI will be seeing clouds/showers and cool conditions (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s) as some lake effect continues through the day. The eastern Lakes region (OH, PA, NY) will see scattered storms, with temps being slightly above normal in western NY/PA as the front won't come through until later, and near to below normal in Ohio as they will see a morning frontal passage. Tuesday night there may be some light lake effect rain here and there, but nothing widespread as the air mass will be drying out some...temps in the 40s Tuesday night. Wednesday a shortwave (S/W) will start coming through the northern Lakes, giving those areas a very cool day with breezy, cloudy conditions and maybe some showers. Highs over the UP of Michigan may struggle to get to 50 Wednesday. The rest of the lakes (southern MI, OH, PA, NY) will be partly sunny with breezy conditions, and with highs in the lower 60s. But, by Thursday the S/W will reinforce the cold over all the lakes...so on Thursday expect mostly cloudy skies with showers over all of the lakes...expect highs in the mid-upper 40s over northern MI, lower-mid 50s over southern MI/northern NY, and mid-upper 50s over PA/OH. Now...as for frozen precip it could be cool enough for some sleet/snow to mix in over the UP of MI Thursday morning...surface temps will be in the upper 30s so nothing will stick...Thursday night the heart of the cold air will be in place...so...the UP of Michigan will likely see some snow showers Thursday night. Temps again will be in the mid-upper 30s so little if any snow will stick...even the northern portions of the southern peninsula of Michigan could see some snow/sleet mix in Thursday night, as well as areas downwind of Lake Huron over western Canada. Now, in southern MI, northern OH/NW PA, and western NY it should be warm enough for any precip to fall as rain. But, inland areas that won't see lake effect showers/clouds (SW Michigan, inland areas of northern Ohio, northern Indiana) could clear out enough to see frosts/freezes...so in the lakes Thursday night it will be a tale of lake effect rain (or snow) or frost/freezes. Friday with such cold air aloft all of the region will see instability showers popping up, with maybe a little snow mixed in over northern MI. Highs in the 50s. Saturday the lakes will start to moderate, but there could again be some light lake effect rain/snow over the northern Lakes Saturday morning, maybe a few sprinkles over the southern Lakes, and areas that don't see precip will again see frosts/freezes Saturday morning in the Great Lakes. Saturday highs will start rebounding, 50s and maybe lower 60s over the southern Lakes. Sunday should be a nice day. Any lake effect should be gone with highs in the 50s/60s.
Ohio Valley: Should remain fairly dry and seasonable through Sunday. The eastern portions of the OV however will see some rain this weekend from the upper low over the east. A cold front will sweep through Tuesday, bringing a slight chance of rain and a cool down. Wednesday will be dry but chilly, except for the mountains in WV/PA, where the mountains could ring out some moisture coming off the lakes and produce a few showers. Thursday will be more of the same. Chilly and mainly dry with highs in the 60s. Friday and Saturday morning there will be some frost over a lot of the region, with widespread frosts/freezes over central OH/IN. Otherwise things will remain dry and a little cool through the weekend.
Southeast: The SE is currently a little rainy and chilly, this should continue through the weekend (Sunday will be a little better but still not great). Monday-Tuesday should be dry/warm. The front will also sweep through the SE on Wednesday. Maybe an isolated shower/storm but nothing extreme or too severe. The end of the week and into the weekend will be a little cool, but still pleasant with highs ranging from the 60s in TN to the 70s over much of the region, and still some 80s over southern AL/GA/FL. Things should remain dry but cool over the weekend.
Northeast/Mid Atlantic: Will remain damp through the weekend, with highs in the 60s/70s. By Monday things should dry out and the region will see highs ranging from the lower 60s over northern Maine to the mid 70s near DC, with upper 60s and lower 70s in between. More of the same Tuesday. But, Tuesday night a front will sweep through the region. Expect a few showers along the front, but nothing widespread. By Wednesday temps will be much cooler, upper 50s over New England and to the west in the GLs, and lower-mid 60s in the I-95 corridor. Things should be pretty dry. On Thursday a S/W will reinforce the cooler air, so much of the region will be in the mid-upper 50s, with some 60s trying to hang on near the coast. Friday morning there will be widespread frosts/freezes in the interior regions of the NE. Friday will again be dry but cool, highs in the 50s/60s. More of the same through the weekend. Should be fairly dry but cool with highs in the 50s/60s during the day and lows in the 30s/40s at night with a lot of frost inland.

Weather Discussion Through Next Week

2008-09-27T00:08:00.006-04:00

NOTE: SINCE BLOGGER SUCKS, THE IMAGES AREN'T SHOWING UP IN THE POST...SO YOU WILL HAVE TO CLICK ON LINKS...SORRY FOR THE INCONVINIENCE...(I removed the vulger language that once was here)...

Discussion Through Next Week

BEFORE READING: I WILL WARN YOU, THIS DISCUSSION IS VERY IN DEPTH AND MAY BE A LITTLE CONFUSING TO SOME, WHICH IS OK! IF SOMETHING CONFUSES YOU, READ MY NOTE AT THE END OF THE POST!

Large Scale Pattern:

Global Water Vapor With Stuff Drawn On It

Currently the water vapor is LIT UP with several key features that will determine the large scale pattern for this up coming week…lets look at them and see what they are expected to do:
-Upper low over eastern US. This will slowly start weakening and moving off to the NE over the next couple days as the S/W over the north central US picks it up. It will leave enough of a trough over the eastern US to allow the upper low and associated front to move through much of the Midwest/NE early next week, and really cool things off.
-The upper low to the SW of Alaska and over the Sea of Japan are going to be very important, as they are going to cause the two ridges over the Pacific to amplify. The one over the NW Pacific will continue to drift NE over the next couple days. It will take the northern branch with it, causing the ridge over the western Pacific to grow northward. The ridge building will cause the upper low to the NE of the ridge (SW of Alaska) to drift more to the south, causing a trough over the central Pacific. The upper low drifting south will amplify the ridge over the East Pac/western US, and it will be oriented more N-S. This will cause the northern Branch to blast into Canada moving SSW-NNE, so it will be tapping the Arctic air. The amplification of the ridge over the eastern Pac will coincide well with the AO and NAO going negative. This will cause the northern branch, which is moving well north into Canada and tapping arctic air to dive back to the south over the eastern US, causing a trough over the east.
-Described above is an amplified pattern…it will consist of a ridge over the western Pacific, trough over the central Pacific, ridge over east Pac and western US, a trough diving into eastern US, and the westerlies south over much of the Atlantic basin, which will impact tropical activity, which I will get to later.
-Now, this pattern will take a couple days to fully develop…but by Sunday night it should pretty much in place, and the upper low/cold front currently off the Pac NW coast will start moving through the northern US and bringing the coldest air mass of the season with it…
Here is what the set up will look like by Monday:

What the pattern will look like on Monday

Things will be starting to amplify more over North America. And, as you can see an upper low and trailing cold front will begin dropping down into the northern US, and will bring a pattern change. Now, you may be wondering: How come the S/W currently moving through the northern US isn’t going to cause a large trough in the east and cause a pattern shift?

500MB analysis for Friday evening at 9PM EDT

Well, currently the pattern is a little more zonal. So, the S/W is moving more W-E than anything. Also, the upper low over the SE US is currently amplifying the ridging over the western Atlantic/NE US, which is causing the jet to move north back into Canada. So, this S/W is just going to give the NE US a glancing blow.

As mentioned above, over the next couple days what will happen is the upper low over the east will weaken and move east some, causing the ridging over the Atlantic move more to the east. Also, the pattern over the Pacific will be amplifying. So, we will get the northern branch diving down towards the NE US a little bit, instead of being deflected more to the north, so the S/W will move farther south than the current one. Also, the S/W will be stronger than the one currently moving just north of the US…

Before we move any farther, lets time the front that the S/W will drag through early next week and discuss its impacts:
Timing the cool down:

Timing the front

Here is the timing of the front…here is what to expect with the frontal passage:
-Some clouds and showers. The front will be strong and will add lift, but there will be some ridging ahead of the front limiting moisture return.
-Some gusty winds. It is a strong front, so winds could gust as it comes through.
Here is what to expect after the front passes through:
-Temps 5-15 degrees below normal.
-Some frost in interior portions of the NE, the GLs, and Midwest.
-Partly cloudy skies. Cool air aloft will cause some instability but little moisture behind the front. Maybe some lake effect rain showers, but nothing extreme.

As we get towards Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper low that will drag the front through will likely run into the –NAO block, stall out, become negatively tilted, and strengthen into a large cut-off upper low over Hudson Bay. This will cause the trough over the east to really deepen, and will also cause weak S/Ws to rotate down through the GLs, which will bring continually cooler air and will cause an increase in lake effect rain, and maybe some mixed precip over the northern lakes. (we’ll cross that bridge when we get there). But, all you need to know is that if you live in the NE, expect cool and unsettled weather from when the front goes through Tuesday/Tuesday night into the weekend. But, by the week of the fifth the cut off over Hudson bay will finally start to shift east…as the pattern continues to change…let me briefly touch on what the pattern will do Tuesday-next weekend:

On Tuesday we will still have the same setup…ridge in western Pac, trough in the middle, ridge in the eastern Pac/western US, trough developing in the east, and some ridging over the Atlantic. But, now we need to think back to the huge upper low currently over the Sea of Japan. Currently it is amplifying the ridge over the western Pacific as it slowly moves around the ridge. By Monday and into Tuesday, that upper low will be working around the northern side of the ridge. As that happens, it will cause the ridge to flatten and spread east some. This will nudge the upper low/trough over the central Pacific east, which will shove the ridge over the western US east, and by the weekend will start pushing the trough over the east to the east. By the end of next weekend, the trough that originally will be in the central Pacific will be over the western US, and the ridge that will be building over the western US will start pushing east, although with a –NAO the trough over the east will be stubborn to get out, so the ridge will start getting flattened by the trough over the east, which will slowly start moving out next weekend…this is where I will leave off…the end of next weekend…and pick it up from there tomorrow…

Now, earlier I mentioned I would get to tropics…right now, there is Kyle. Kyle is a strong TS, and may become a minimal hurricane. It may clip SE New England and will be going into Nova Scotia. There is also a tropical wave in the Atlantic, which the NHC is giving a 20%> of developing over the next 48 hours…currently it is lacking heavy thunderstorm activity, and is being impacted by shear, that won’t be going away for a few more days. So, this system likely won’t become anything significant over the weekend. If it does happen to develop, currently the ridge over the Atlantic is strong, so the wave should continue moving to the WNW for the next few days. But, later next week as the trough digs over the eastern US, if there is anything left of this system the trough should wisp it out to sea…

NOW, I UNDERSTAND HOW SOME OF YOU MAY BE A BIT CONFUSED, AS THERE WAS A LOT OF STUFF IN THAT POST AND SOME OF IT WAS A LITTLE COMPLICATED. SO, IF YOU ARE CONFUSED, PLEASE, LEAVE A COMMENT BELOW THE POST. IF I GET ANY COMMENTS I WILL PROBABLY MAKE AN EDUCATIONAL POST AT SOME POINT TOMORROW OR SUNDAY, SO WE ALL CAN LEARN. IF YOU ARE CONFUSED, LEAVE A FRICKIN COMMENT ABOUT WHAT YOU ARE CONFUSED ON! THAT IS WHY THERE IS A PLACE TO LEAVE COMMENTS BELOW EACH POST!

Hello folks! Welcome to my Blog! A new Winter is Closing on us!

2008-09-24T19:42:00.002-04:00

During the summer I really got lazy and didn't post on here all that often...mainly because I was pissed because the format for pictures in a blog post infuriates me...anyway...I am going to start posting here much more often...now...this year I am not going to have a lot of free time...a lot of homework every night...but I should still be able to post whenever things get interesting weather wise...here are some new things I will be trying this year:
-3 to 7 day discussions, to discuss the pattern in the medium range and possible upcoming storms.
-7 to 14 day discussions, to discuss the longer range pattern, and maybe hype up a storm...maybe...
-Also, I want YOU to get involved...a lot of us who read the blog are weather enthusiasts who are still learning...which is GREAT! It's awesome that you guys want to learn more...so...if you have a question...about anything...please utilize the "comment" button below each post and ask a question if you have it...I will be more than happy to answer any questions...

So, check back often, ask questions, and enjoy reading! I will likely have my first post with real substance Friday...

Tropics Heating Up! Three Areas of Concern

2008-08-02T18:13:00.008-04:00

Sorry for the inconvenience, but blogger fucken sucks with the way you uploaded images can only be before the text...so I tried using a site to host them so I could put them where ever I wanted...but they show up as x's...so I'll post a link below each pic to where they're being hosted...sorry for this...

We have three “invests” in the Atlantic this evening, all of which may develop. Lets first focus on Invest 90L, out on the eastern Atlantic:

http://img523.imageshack.us/my.php?image=invest90dr5.jpg
Currently there appears to be a weak swirl just to the east of the heaviest convection. So, this system is not terribly well organized but if convection continues to fire as it is now the circulation will organize more and further intensification will occur. But, is the environment favorable for this?

http://img523.imageshack.us/my.php?image=eastatlanticshearsl9.png
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/winds/wm7shr.GIF
Currently, shear is fairly low over the system, 10-15 knots. This will not accelerate development but it is low enough to allow further slow development, if other factors contribute:

http://img515.imageshack.us/my.php?image=sstspp7.png
Currently, it is over marginal SSTs for development, 27-28 degrees Celsius…again…this will not cause rapid development but will not prevent it from slowly occurring if other factors fall in place.

http://img127.imageshack.us/my.php?image=saldd2.png
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.html
As you can see, Invest 90L is riding just out ahead of a very strong burst of the SAL (Saharan Air Layer). This, will also prohibit rapid development, however, this system is moving quite quickly so may stay just ahead of the SAL. So, right now all factors are marginal development, so I am calling for slow development. I believe this system may become a depression as early as Sunday and probably will by Monday.
As for where this thing will go, there is a strong subtropical ridge to the north of it. This will steer it to the WNW over the next few days. Once it gets near the Bahamas by Thursday, it will start approaching a large weakness in the ridge due to a large trough over eastern North America. This should allow this system to curve out to sea, perhaps near Bermuda but away from the US, if it does develop. More on future strength:
Down the road, it appears that this invest may encounter higher shear due to a band of sub tropical jet stream energy on the southern side of a large ridge, perhaps again slowing any development.

http://img127.imageshack.us/my.php?image=futurelowlevelsteeringstn9.png
As you can see on the above image from the GFS (which doesn’t even have the system at this point) that the flow will be very brisk from the ESE at the mid levels near where the system will be around this time. This could very well tear the system apart. Right now, the few models that have run on this are showing a strong TS/weak Hurricane by Thursday. Right now, I do not know that this will come to fruition. I am calling for slow development to a weak tropical cyclone (TD/weak TS) through Tuesday, but then a halting of development and perhaps a weakening thereafter through at least Friday. To be honest, I do not know if this will be around next weekend. So, to me this is a watch and see just incase but don’t expect anything big system.

The next invest on our list is Invest 91L in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This one is much closer to home and bears watching:

http://img127.imageshack.us/my.php?image=invest91pb1.jpg
Over the last few hours, a weak spin has been evident on the visible satellite, near or possibly under the deep convection. This system is not what I would call on the verge of becoming a depression, but is over a fairly good environment for strengthening and already has deep convection and some kind of at least mid level, if not low level circulation.

http://img515.imageshack.us/my.php?image=westatlanticshearyg5.png
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
As shown above, this system (which is associated with an old frontal boundary) is under low shear, 5-10 knots. This is favorable for development. However, it should be noted that there is an upper low near Cuba. This is causing higher shear to the southern portion of the system and may restrict outflow to the S-SE quadrants of the system.

http://img515.imageshack.us/my.php?image=sstspp7.png
Invest 91L is also over warm waters, 28-29 degrees Celsius. This is also favorable for development. There are a couple of inhibiting factors though, both of which can be seen on water vapor imagery:

http://img515.imageshack.us/my.php?image=gomwvxu2.png
The upper low mentioned above is causing some shear on the southeastern quadrant of the system. This may slow development some. This upper low may also limit outflow for the rest of the weekend. But, the upper low should get out of the way by Monday. There is also some very dry air to the north of the system. This is also limiting outflow to the northern quadrant of the system. This will likely not go away at all over the next few days. So, the environment is marginal for development currently, but will become more favorable by Monday, but some dry air may still be a problem over the coarse of this systems lifespan. So, I believe slow organization will continue through Sunday, perhaps into a depression as early as Sunday evening. After Sunday, there is no reason why slow to perhaps moderate intensification won’t occur until Tuesday, when this system will run into Texas. So, I expect a moderate tropical storm (perhaps as strong as 50-55 knots) by the time this hit Texas on Tuesday. As for where exactly it will go, there is a decent ridge to the NW of this invest. This ridge will slide east over the next couple days. This should steer Invest 91L to the SW in the short term, then to the west late Sunday through Monday, and then as the ridge becomes farther east of the system by Tuesday, a turn more to the NW seems logical. This would put landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Houston Tuesday afternoon. I will have a full projected path once this thing is named.

http://img515.imageshack.us/my.php?image=invest99bz1.png
As for Invest 99L (above) it has a well-defined LLC, but there is no deep convection, because this thing is encountering very dry air and increasing shear. No development is expected as this system continues to the WNW over the few days.

August Outlooks

2008-07-26T12:30:00.002-04:00

Note: These are my first attempt at long range forecasting. They are highly experimental, and I am trying these to see if I have any skill in long range forecasting, and if I will be making these maps monthly.
Discussion:
During the month of August, it appears that there will be a large ridge over the western US, and an occasional trough trying to dip down over the GLs/NE. It appears that from time to time, the ridge in the west may try to build east for a couple days, but nothing persistent. In the west, there will be a dry SW flow on the west side of the ridge. I have put the coast in slightly lower temps than the rest of the west due to the cooling effects of the Pacific. However, in the rest of the west, under the ridge and with a SW flow, it looks like it will be warm and fairly dry. So, I put much of the inter mountain west in above normal and fairly dry conditions. In the extreme NW, a trough may be trying to build down, so I added normal precip and near normal temps. In parts of the SW, I did not go crazy with temps and added in normal (may end up busting a little above) precip, due to the monsoonal flow. Now, you may be wondering why there is a large area of below normal on the edge of the heat ridge and well above normal precip. Well, it looks like it will be quite stormy on the northern edge of the ridge, as it usually is. Which is why I put in below normal temps and above normal precip in that area. The above normal precip I have fairly high confidence in. However, I am a little concerned that the temps may end up being closer to average instead of below average in that area, due to warmer night time minimums, even if day time maximums are below normal. In the south central states, I put in above normal temps and below normal precip. The flow around the high the majority of the time will be out of the NW, which is a fairly dry flow, so I expect fairly dry conditions in that area with above normal temps. In the NE, I added above normal precip and put in above normal temps for most of the NE, but with a small area of cooler weather noted closer to the Canadian border. This is because a trough will be effecting the area from time to time, which easily agrees with the above normal precip. However, why did I put in above normal temps? A few reasons...one of the big reasons is despite the troughiness for the majority of the summer, temps have been normal to above normal in the NE, mainly due to nighttime lows being warm. Although I really have no reason to explain it, this reason made me lean against below normal temps. Another reason is, the heat ridge may try to build east from time to time, causing above normal temps as that happens. The third reason...which may just by me going out on a limb...the models are hinting that the trough axis may try to setup a little farther west...over Ontario/the northern GLs...opposed to Quebec...this would put the NE US in a warm, moist SE flow ahead of the trough. So, on a perhaps slightly shaky decision, I went with above normal in much of the NE/Mid Atlantic for these reasons. NOTE: I CAN SEE HOW THIS CAN LEAD TO A BOUT OF MAJOR HEAT IN THE EAST. And in the SE I went with above normal temps and normal precip because the ridge will extend east into the SE.

Dolly Update: Dolly Still Threat to Western Gulf

2008-07-22T01:40:00.004-04:00

Note: 12z=8AM EDT...0z=8PM EDT
Discussion:
Dolly's interaction with the Yucatan, although brief really disrupted the circulation last night, so Dolly has spent all of today trying to develop an inner core, so it really hasn't strengthened yet. However, it looks like a small inner core has formed, and now an "eyewall" is trying to form, although up to this point it isn't very pretty yet. The reason the system is having a tough time wrapping deep convection all the way around the center is because of dry air off to the SE of the COC. However, it appears that Dolly will be moving away from the dry air, which should help convection wrap all the way around the center. Right now, outflow is good in all quadrants except the S/SE quadrant, where some dry air is getting pulled into the system. Also, wind shear is very low and is expected to remain that way. Also, oceanic heat content is moderately favorable for intensification in Dolly's path over the next day. So, over the next day, once Dolly can wrap that "eyewall" all the way around the center, I see no reason while a modest to fairly quick strengthening won't occur. After that, all factors will remain favorable for intensification, except for oceanic heat content which will become a little less favorable for intensification. It will not cause a weakening in Dolly, but will slow strengthening. This little "cooler eddy" of water as described by the NHC may save the western Gulf coast from a major hurricane, but again with modest to good conditions for strengthening over the next 36 hours while it is over water, I believe a CAT 1 hurricane will easily be reached, if not a CAT 2. (less bullish than yesterday, due to inner core taking longer to get organized) Now that you know the reasoning for the intensity forecast, here is the reasoning for the track:
The reasoning for track is similar to yesterday, but with a more westerly movement than expected today, the track has been shifted slightly to the left. Currently, a ridge is keeping Dolly on more of a westerly track rather than a NWerly track. However, this ridge is expected to break down over the next day and allow Dolly to move more WNW. The ridge breaking down will also cause Dolly to slow down some over the next day. However on Wednesday as Dolly approaches landfall, a ridge will start building to the north of Dolly. This will nudge Dolly more to the west again just before landfall. Right now, this solution is supported greatly by all models, as there is a very tight model consensus for both track and speed. Landfall looks to be very near the TX/MX border. This could pose a threat to the Brownsville area which is fairly heavily populated.
Forecast intensities:
12z Tue: 55 knots
0z Wed: 65 knots
12z Wed: 80 knots
0z Thu: 50 knots
Landfall intensity: 85 knots (~97MPH)
Not as bullish as yesterday, due to the Yucatan disrupting the circulation more than expected (not surprising, given that it was a developing cyclone), but you can't blame me for being a little bullish at first, because all the factors were/are there for intensification, but the center took a while after getting back out over water to organize. Still, far southern TX/northern MX need to prepare for a storm surge of 4-7', power outages, and perhaps some structural damage, especially to mobile homes.
NOTE: Some of the links are time sensitive, and I wrote this around midnight. I believe the NHC link, dry air link, shear link, and model link are all time sensitive, so they may not look exactly the way they did when I wrote this discussion.

HURRICANE ALERT: DOLLY POSES MAJOR THREAT TO WEST GULF COAST

2008-07-21T01:48:00.003-04:00

Right now, all other weather issues will have to be put to side, because this will probably dwarf all of them. All things are pointing to a strong hurricane moving through the western Gulf and into the southern Texas coast. This storm will make Cristobal look like a puff of wind and a squirt of rain. Based on radar and satellite imagery, it is clear that Dolly's center has relocated to just WSW of Cancun. Also based on radar and satellite imagery, it is over the southern area of deep convection, and is rapidly organizing. Also, with the re-location, the center will just graze the Yucatan, so strengthening will not be inhibited at all until landfall on Wednesday.
Full discussion/reasoning:
With the relocation of Dolly, I went north of 0z guidance. But, over the next 48 hours, Dolly will follow the flow around a high pressure over the southern US/northern Gulf. It appears the ridge will be braking down some to the N of Dolly, so Dolly will continue moving in a similar WNW direction over the next 48 hours. But, with the ridge weakening some Tuesday, the forward motion of Dolly should slow some. On Wednesday, the ridge may try to build back a little bit north of Dolly, and with Dolly being farther north than originally progged, it looks like the ridge may cause Dolly to move a little more the the south on Wednesday. However, no matter how you look at it, landfall will occur in either extreme northern Mexico, or south/central Texas. As for intensity, the ULL that is currently causing some shear to Dolly is expected to get out of the way quickly here, and may actually help the outflow which is already very good. Also, Dolly will be moving over warm Gulf waters. In summary, Dolly has and will continue to be in an environment that features good outflow, low shear, and warm SSTs so I see no reason while a fairly rapid strengthening trend will not occur until this thing hits land. Hopefully, this thing will not explode like several hurricanes have over the last few years.
Intensity forecast (could change, bottom line is this will bring major impacts to where it makes landfall):
0z Tue: 65-70
0z Wed: 85-90
0z Thu: 105-110 (near landfall).
Just a note, the area between Brownsville and Corpus Christi are pretty sparsely populated, and that is where the current track has this going. However, a slight deviation in track (which could very well occur) would bring this thing into more populated areas. In summary, everyone from northern Mexico to central Texas need to start preparing now for a hurricane making landfall. A large area of heavy rain and damaging winds accompany hurricanes, and destructive storm surges can also occur, and extend well away from the center, so do not focus on where the center will make landfall because the effects of hurricanes are felt over large areas.

Cristobal Forms; Impacts to Carolinas, and Possibly Cape Cod

2008-07-19T19:01:00.005-04:00

(Click on images to see full size)

(To avoid confusion, the Outer Banks are in the "low impacts" zone, and the shoreline of mainland NC is in the "minimal impacts" zone)

(18z=2PM EDT)

Well, the area of low pressure that was in the Gulf earlier in the week has played a trick on us. Instead of drifting through the SE US, and giving them some much needed rain, it tracked across Florida, and has since fed off the warm Gulf Stream, and has been named a tropical storm. Forecast Discussion:

Over the next day, Cristobal will continue to follow the very weak steering currents around the periphery of a high. So, a slow NE motion will continue. After that, an approaching trough will break down the high, so Cristobal will not be forced towards the coast. The trough will be bringing in a nice blast of westerlies, so an increase in foreword speed is expected. Ahead of the trough, steering currents will still be out of the SW, so as I said a NE motion is expected to continue. By Tuesday, the trough will catch up to Cristobal. This will cause a further increase in the continued NE motion, and will also cause Cristobal to become extra tropical. As for intensity, low shear and warm SSTs should allow for a little more strengthening over the next day or so. However, I do not expect a rapid increase in intensity, especially over the next 24 hours due to the center being exposed, and proximity to land. After that, the storm will move over cooler SSTs and shear will increase in association with the trough, so a weakening storm and an extra tropical transition will begin by late Monday. Intensity forecast:

18z Sunday: 50-55MPH

18z Monday: 60-65MPH

18z Tuesday: 45-50MPH

Other tropical notes: Bertha has again become a hurricane over the far northern Atlantic, but is soon to become extra tropical. It is by far the longest lived July storm on record (17 days and counting). The tropical wave in the Caribbean (Invest 94L) has not developed over the last few days, and is still just an open wave with no center of circulation. However, it is in a favorable environment for development, and may develop over the next few days as it moves over the Western Caribbean. This system is expected to effect the Yucatan Peninsula, and then the Western Gulf Coast, so all interests in those areas need to keep tabs on this system.

NOTE: This new layout which I am digging has one side affect. The warning box, blog archive and other weather links (recently added to tropical links) are all at the bottem of the page.

Invest 94 Really Starting to Disappoint; Development in Gulf of Mexico?

2008-07-15T23:47:00.002-04:00

The tropical wave in the central Atlantic that looked like it would develop a couple days ago has really looked not impressive since then. Today there have been some intermittent bursts of convection, but nothing really organized. And it appears that the low level circulation has weakened. The reason for this is some shear and the system moving through some drier air. These limitations are not killing the system completely but are preventing it from developing. Over the next few days the environment will be similar, so now I am backing off my earlier prediction of this thing developing, and am giving this thing a 50/50 chance of becoming a depression by Friday. After that, I am not going to speculate much more, but what's left of it, or potentially a developing storm will keep moving through the Caribbean. Down the road the environment may become more favorable for possible development, so this system still needs to be monitored. No matter what the Lesser Antilles will see heavy rains and gusty winds. In summary: Lesser Antilles, expect some gusty weather. Even if this system doesn't develop in the short term, it is a potent tropical wave and needs to be watched down the road in case it runs into a more favorable environment.

GULF SYSTEM: A weak low pressure has developed off of Florida's gulf coast. No imminent development is expecting, but it is in a low shear environment and is over very warm waters, so if convection can keep firing near this thing it may slowly organized. Right now, steering currents are very weak. But, with that strong, building high to the east of this system, I think this thing will slowly more to the north over the next couple days. With its proximity to the coast, and right now the lack of a a nice spin, I don't think this will turn into too much. Now, there is an outside chance at development. This thing will either move more north to NNE and go into the FL peninsula. This would not permit development, but would bring more rain to Florida. Or, the high will build faster, and the low will move more north to NNW, and hit in the Florida panhandle. This may allow some organization into perhaps a TD or weak storm, due to low shear and warm SSTs. There is a slight chance if this staying over water long enough to become a named storm, but either way this thing will bring some much needed rain to FL and the SE. After landfall over Florida, the strong ridge to the north of this will cause it to meander around over the SE the rest of the week, enhancing precipitation some. Later this weekend, as a front approaches and weakens the ridge, any residual moisture from this may enhance precip some over the NE/Mid Atlantic.

Bermuda Gets Pounded!

2008-07-14T16:33:00.006-04:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHjf3HrBikw

Bernuda has been getting pounded today by Bertha, with winds close to hurricane force, high seas and heavy rains. This will continue this evening. Today, as Bertha finally got going and moved out of the cooler pocket of water she created due to upwelling, strengthened, and will likely be upgraded to a hurricane at the 5PM advisory. The above Youtube video is from earlier today showing tropical storm conditions on Bermuda.

Invest 94 Update: Not as Impressive as Last Night, But Development Still Expected

2008-07-14T16:30:00.006-04:00

This afternoon of visible imagery there was a well defined center. However, it is just south of that northern curved band. To be honest, this thing is not looking organized right now. However, I still think it is on the verge of becoming a depression, so it is only a matter of time before we get a burst of convection over the center which would likely prompt an upgrade to depression. Now, where it goes from here and how strong it gets are still in question. The models are a little farther south than yesterday, and some of them are no longer showing this developing. Based on the rather poor satellite presentation, I am not expecting as quick of a development as I hinted at yesterday. But this thing is in a favorable environment for development and already has a low level circulation, so I still think that we will see a depression form by sometime Tuesday, a storm by sometime Wednesday, and possibly a hurricane by the weekend. Based on the above, all of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola need to monitor this. Where it goes after this week is still highly uncertain, and how strong it gets is also uncertain.

Invest 94 Named in Atlantic: Big Time Development Possible

2008-07-14T00:02:00.006-04:00

On Sunday Invest 94L was named in the central Atlantic. This evening, there has been a flair up of convection that has a clear cyclonic swirl. As of right now (around midnight) I believe this is already on the verge of becoming a depression, so I have high confidence that a depression will be named at 5AM or 11AM Monday by the NHC. The models are already plowing this thing into the Leeward islands on Thursday, and near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola around Friday. Right now there is a large ridge to the north of this future tropical storm (Cristobal) which is steering it to the WNW. All indications are that this trend will continue for the next several days, so a hit to the Leeward islands seems plausible later in the week. After that, the track is still uncertain, because of a possible weakness in the ridge caused by Bertha, but it is apparent at the moment that the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola need to watch out for a possible hit from a tropical cyclone Thursday-Friday. As for the intensity forecast, with low shear (5-15 knots) forecasted and Invest 94L moving over waters of 27-28 degrees, I see no reason why this system should not slowly intensify through Friday, and also see no reason why a strong TS or weak hurricane won't be spinning by Friday. Here is a quick look forecast:
0z Wednesday (8PM Tuesday): 13.5N, 47W with winds of 50-55MPH
0z Friday (8PM Thursday): 18.3N, 62.5 W with winds of 70-75MPH.

BERTHA NOTE: Over the last few days Bertha has been sitting and spinning in the same general area while slowly weakening. It has caused large swells and a rip current risk up and down the east coast, which should continue through the beginning of the week, but start subsiding some by Wednesday-Thursday. Bertha will also make a close pass to Bermuda Monday/Tuesday. The island can expect heavy rains, high winds, and high surf. Nothing major to the island, and if anything some beneficial rainfall.

Tuesday Night Bertha Update:

2008-07-09T01:00:00.003-04:00

For the whole 5 days, I basically looked at the location of features like ridges and troughs to determine steering currents, which is how I determined which direction the storm would be moving on each day, and looked at the models for guidance on how fast the thing will be moving.
Discussion:
On Wednesday there will be a high to the east of Bertha, and a weakening high west of it, and a bit of a trough between them. Since Bertha is a deep storm, the upper level steering currents will be the main factors that will steer her. So, with the 500MB charts for Wednesday showing a high just of Bertha, Bertha should follow the backside of the high to the northwest. However, since Bertha will be moving into another high that will be in her path tomorrow, I kept Bertha slightly farther left than the model consensus. On Thursday, the setup will be similar. But, with Bertha a little farther north, the anticyclonic flow around the high to the ESE of her at that point will curve her a little more to the north. However, with a high still directly in the storm's path, the storm still cannot escape strait NNE out to sea yet, so I continued with a general NW motion Thursday. On Friday the high to Bertha's north that for the next couple days will keep the storm from racing NE out to sea will weaken and start moving off to the east as a S/W approaches this. This should allow Bertha to slowly curve even more to the north. And next weekend the ridge should be east of Bertha, and Bertha should continue to slowly follow the flow around the ridge to the N. This whole time steering currents will be weak and Bertha will be moving very slowly.
As for intensity on Wednesday shear will be modest, at 10-20 knots which should allow Bertha to hold her current strength and maybe get a little bit stronger, but after that shear will increase which should weaken Bertha.
0z Thu: 85-90
0z Fri: 75-80
0z Sat: 65-70
0z Sun: 55-60
0z Mon: 50-55

Bertha Update: BERTHA NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE!

2008-07-07T14:59:00.005-04:00

Last night an eye was attempting to show itself. Today the eye has become well defined, with an extremely organized eye wall, and an extremely organized, symmetrical storm. As of 11AM Bertha had 90MPH winds, but since then Bertha appears to have strengthened very rapidly, and the latest Dvorak intensity estimates are now placing Bertha at a category 3 hurricane. The most of the latest models continue to indicate a curve out to sea, however some are showing the storm stalling out somewhere between the US and Bermuda, so, the US and especially Bermuda need to watch this. While I still think the chances of a US landfall are low, I still cannot rule it completely out. I will have my full updated forecast this evening.

Monday/Monday Night Severe

2008-07-07T02:05:00.003-04:00

I am about to crash so I will make this kind of quick:
Areas of special note:
-Slow moving thunderstorms may cause localized flash flooding in the east.
-A MCS may move through WI Monday night with an enhanced wind damage threat and a small flood threat.
-A few tornadoes are possible in the 30% risk area.

Daily Bertha Update

2008-07-06T22:32:00.005-04:00

18z=2PM EDT

Since I wrote this discussion earlier in the day, I will update that microwave imagery shows a developing eye and improving inner core, and the IR/water vapor are also showing an eye trying to form, so I have upped the intensity forecast.

Discussion:
This afternoon Bertha may have re-formed a little farther northward under the deepest convection, and appears to be getting stronger. Now, for my path, I continued the general brisk WNW motion it is on now for the next couple days because there will be nothing to really change the direction of the storm, as it will continue tracking along the southern side of the mid-level ridge. However, late Tuesday a S/W will be moving well north of the system. It will weaken the ridge a little and may increase shear a little over the system Tuesday, so starting Tuesday I will show a slightly more north component in the path. On Thursday another S/W will move off the east coast. This will again weaken the ridge, and pull Bertha even more to the north. Now, there are a few questions here. Will the S/W be strong enough to wisp Bertha safely out to sea? Or will the ridge build back quick enough to trap Bertha just off the SE coast until the next S/W breaks down the ridge? The answers to these questions will depend on the strength of Bertha, the strength of the S/W, and the exact location of Bertha. A weaker Bertha would likely be trapped by the ridge building back, but a Bertha that is stronger and maybe a little farther NW would probably go out to sea without getting trapped by the ridge. But again, the answers to those questions are uncertain, so on my track I showed a slowing of Bertha towards the end of the week and a turn to the N. But again, after Wednesday things are a little uncertain. However, the threat to the US has gone down, because Bertha either goes out to sea safely, or if it does get trapped, which has a lower chance of happening there will be ridging off the SE coast and over the GOM, which should keep Bertha from drifting into the US. So, I will put the chances of Bertha hitting the US at 15%, and the chance of it impacting Bermuda at 50%.
For the intensity forecast, over the next couple days warmer SSTs and low shear should allow for a gradual strengthening. However, there will be a couple S/Ws tracking north of the storm (as mentioned above) after Tuesday, which will occasionally increase shear. While the current indications are the shear shouldn't tear Bertha apart, it may slow or even halt development.
18z Mon: 75-80MPH
18z Tue: 85-90MPH
18z Wed: 90-95MPH
18z Thu: 85-90MPH
18z Fri: 85-90MPH

Saturday Night Bertha Update

2008-07-05T22:56:00.005-04:00

Since my discussion was written at around 5PM, I will update, that since then another burst of convection has fired over or just north of the center of circulation over the last few hours, and you can see that on the IR satellite image that I posted above. Now for my full forecast discussion: (18z on the projected path is 2PM EDT):

Discussion:

Today, Bertha has continued to move slightly north of west, at 20-22MPH, and has gotten a little better organized, as it has moved west of the drier, African air that had been choking it yesterday, the modest shear let up, and it is starting to move over warm sea surface temps (SSTs). This general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 or so hours, as Bertha continues to move south of a mid level ridge over much of the northern Atlantic. However, in 2-3 days, a trough will move north of Bertha. This should not be enough to re-curve Bertha out to sea, but it should bend Bertha a little more to the north. Than, in 5-7 days a S/W will start moving off the east coast, and should create enough of a weakness in the high to start steering Bertha more to the NW, and could be enough to re-curve her out to sea. I am still not going to rule out a US landfall, or close brush from Bertha, because the trough may end up missing Bertha or being weaker, but it is starting to look like the chances of a US landfall have gone down a little. I am not going to put the chance of a US landfall, or a very near miss at about 30% now, which is down a little from what I though earlier today and yesterday. I am holding the chance of Bertha passing within 100 miles of Bermuda at 40%.

As for the intensity forecast, low shear and favorable SSTs should support a gradual strengthening to a weak CAT 1 hurricane by some time on Monday. After Monday, some shear will start impacting Bertha. Not as much as models like the GFS earlier advertised, but probably around 20 knots, which should keep Bertha from getting too strong, and may even weaken the storm a little bit. Here is my intensity forecast:

18z Sun: 55-60MPH

18z Mon: 70-75MPH

18z Tue: 75-80MPH18z

Wed: 70-75MPH18z

Thu: 65-70MPH

In summary, this storm bares watching, especially for Bermuda, but is not cause for panic at all, because a direct hit from a destructive hurricane is NOT EXPECTED.

Update on Bertha: Long Term Track Still Uncertain

2008-07-04T23:57:00.007-04:00

Well, here is your daily scoop on tropical storm Bertha. (on the projected path, 18z is 2PM EDT) Before I get to the brief forecast discussion, lets look at what Bertha is going through now. The first image is microwave imagery, showing the center is not as well defined and that most of the deep convection is getting sheared to the north of the center. This also shows up on the IR, as the storm has a sheared, a-symmetrical storm. Now for the forecast track and intensity discussion:

Over the next few days a strong mid-level ridge over the northern Atlantic will continue to steer Bertha to the west-northwest. However, late Monday a weakness will develop in the ridge. The models cannot decide how strong this weakness will be and how Bertha will respond to this. A stronger Bertha responds more and re-curves out to sea much quicker. However, it looks like wind shear could be doing a number on Bertha by the time this weakness in the ridge develops, and this could keep Bertha from being strong enough to respond to the ridge, thus, the vast majority of the models are showing Bertha taking a more southern track, perhaps towards the US east coast or Bermuda. Considering the models continue to trend towards a southern track, I have shifted my projected path southward to the models. If my track verifies I give the storm a 40% chance of coming within 100 miles of Bermuda, and a 40% chance of coming very close to or hitting the US before curving out to sea. So basically I think this thing could go either way, and needs to be watched. As for intensities, over the next day dry air off of Africa, around 15 knots of shear, and marginal Sea Surface Temps (SSTs) will keep Bertha around the same strength she is now. However, later Saturday though Sunday and into Monday, Bertha will experience warmer SSTs, lower shear, and more moisture in the air. This should allow for a gradual strengthening to a strong TS or weak CAT 1 by Monday. But, starting Monday it appears Bertha may feel the affects of some wind shear. The models are undecided on much shear there will be and how much it will weaken Bertha, but considering this is an early season Cape Verde storm, with marginal SSTs I believe the shear will have a negative impact on Bertha, especially if the shear is as strong as some models indicate (30-40 knots). Here are my approximate forecast coordinates and intensities for the next 5 days:

18z Sat: 37.5 W, 17N. 50-55MPH

18z Sun: 46 W, 19N. 60-65MPH

18z Mon: 51.5 W, 20.8N. 70-75MPH

18z Tue: 58 W, 22.5N. 60-65MPH

18z Wed: 63.5 W, 24.5N. 55-60MPH

Fourth of July Thunderstorm Outlook:

2008-07-04T00:15:00.003-04:00

There will be a lot of fireworks Friday, with quite a few of them coming from Mother Nature. The map above shows where thunderstorms are possible, and the severe weather risk. (the percentages are for severe wx) If you live in the shaded in areas rain/thunder may affect your fireworks so check your radar throughout the day in case storms do fire!

Bertha Info

2008-07-03T21:08:00.004-04:00

On Thursday morning at 11AM EDT, tropical storm Berth was named. This is the first storm to be named this far east this early in the hurricane season. As of this evening Bertha is looking pretty healthy via the satellite image I posted above. So, it looks like it is slowly intensifying. I also posted my "projected path" of Bertha for the next 5 days. (18z is 2PM). The main determining factor to the future path of Bertha is a ridge of high pressure sitting over much of the northern Atlantic, and how much it breaks down and allows Bertha to re-curve. How much this ridge breaks down and allows Bertha to re-curve depends on how strong Bertha gets. The stronger it is the faster it re-curves. Forecast models like the GFS and GFDL are strengthening the storm fastest, and have the fastest curve out to sea, while models like the EURO and UKMET are much weaker and much farther south. Based on the sea surface temps (SSTs) that the storm will encounter over the next couple days, I believe the storm will not strengthen as much as some models are showing, so I do not think it will curve north as far north as the GFS and GFDL are advertising. So, for my path I went just south of the model consensus for the re-curve out to sea. This storm may come close to Bermuda down the road, but I do not believe this storm poses a threat to the US or Canada for that matter.

Thursday Severe

2008-07-03T00:53:00.002-04:00

I do not see a huge outbreak Thursday, but in the NE ahead of the front there will be some morning sunshine and moisture in place, which will allow CAPEs to approach 1500 and LIs to range from -2 to -4. This will allow widespread convection to fire in the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Instability will be by no means great, but with a lot of shear in place I believe some storms will become severe. I know Matt and the SPC mentioned supercells due to the shear, but with instability pretty low I believe the threat for supercells is low. However, I believe that storms will try to organize into line segments, with slightly enhanced wind damage threats due to the stronger winds aloft. But again, with limited instability in place only a few storms will get strong enough to tap the stronger winds aloft and produce damaging winds. I cannot rule out a little bit of hail in the stronger storms but nothing huge hail wise is expected. In the morning if things look slightly more unstable I may need to add a 30% risk area, but at this time I give that a small chance of happening. Thursday I will have a in depth analysis of the two invests in the Atlantic, which may develop into tropical cyclones.

I Foregot What Day of the Week it is! This is for WEDNESDAY'S SEVERE

2008-07-02T01:30:00.003-04:00

Wind shear, moisture, instability appear to be all favorable for a decent bought of severe wx on Wednesday into Wednesday night. MI is a bit of a question as moisture will be lagging there a bit, but it appears that by late in the day dews will be well into the 60s, which will allow CAPEs to increase to 1000-2000 over MI, and 2000-4000 over southern WI, IA, IL, and parts of MO, and LIs will also be -3 to -6 over MI, and -5 to -9 or lower over the rest of the higher risk areas for severe. This should allow widespread storms to develop and quickly become severe, and with decent shear in place damaging winds appear to be a large threat with many of the storms tomorrow. With the strong flow aloft I believe the storms will organize into squall lines with an enhanced damaging with threat. These areas of storms could organize into a MCS or two, which is indicated by the latest NAM and GFS. The SPC goes along with this adea as of the Day 2 outlook (I will probably be out cold by the new Day 1 outlook comes out). With the amount of instability, shear and slightly cooler air aloft, hail may also be a threat along few tornadoes. However, I do not foresee a large tornado outbreak.
NOTE: I am going to hold off on the moderate risk.
NOTE: I am going to again post all my forecasts that I usually post on the accu wx forums here, along with coverage of other major weather related events.

More Details Come Out About Boy Scout Camp, KSU Tornado, and Chapman Tornadoes

2008-06-12T10:27:00.003-04:00

Remains of a ranger's house at the Little Sioux Scout Ranch can be seen after a tornado ripped through the Little Sioux Scout Ranch in the remote Loess Hills, Iowa Wednesday June 11, 2008.

(AP Photo/Loren Sawyer - Onawa Sentinel)

By TIMBERLY ROSS, Associated Press Writer 7 minutes ago

BLENCOE, Iowa - Boy Scouts who came to the aid of their colleagues after a tornado that killed four of their comrades and injured 48 people were hailed as heroes Thursday for helping to administer first aid and search for victims buried in their flattened campsite.

Iowa rescue workers cut through downed branches and dug through debris amid rain and lightning Wednesday night to reach the camp where the 93 boys, ages 13 to 18, had huddled for safety through the twister. They and 25 staff members were attending a weeklong leadership training camp.

Lloyd Roitstein, an executive with the Mid America Council of the Boy Scouts of America, reminded reporters at a news conference Thursday that the Boy Scouts motto is "Be Prepared."

"Last night, the agencies and the scouts were prepared," he said. "They knew what to do, they knew where to go, and they prepared well."

Iowa Gov. Chet Culver praised the boys for "taking care of each other."

Tornadoes also raked Kansas on Wednesday, killing at least two people, destroying much of the small town of Chapman and causing extensive damage on the Kansas State University campus.

The tornado through the camp killed three 13-year-olds and one 14-year-old, Roitstein said. A tornado siren went off at the camp, but the scouts had already taken cover before the siren sounded. There was no time to remove them from the isolated retreat, he said.

The boys had been in two groups when the storm hit the Little Sioux Scout Ranch in the Loess Hills. One group managed to take shelter, while the other was out hiking.

At least 42 of the injured remained hospitalized Thursday morning, with everything from cuts and bruises to major head trauma, said Gene Meyer, Iowa's public safety commissioner.

Four were hospitalized in serious but stable condition, officials said.

All the scouts and staff were accounted for, Meyer said, adding that searchers were making another pass through the grounds to make sure no one else was injured. The camp was destroyed.

Thomas White, a scout supervisor, said he dug through the wreckage of a collapsed fireplace to reach victims in a building where many scouts were seeking shelter when the twister struck at about 6:35 p.m.

"A bunch of us got together and started undoing the rubble from the fireplace and stuff and waiting for the first responders," White told KMTV in Omaha, Neb. "They were under the tables and stuff and on their knees, but they had no chance."

The nearest tornado siren, in nearby Blencoe, sounded only briefly after the storm cut power to the town, said Russ Lawrenson of the Mondamin Fire Department.

Taylor Willoughby, 13, said several scouts were getting ready to watch a movie when someone screamed that there was a tornado. Everyone hunkered down, he said, and windows shattered.

"It sounded like a jet that was flying by really close," Taylor told NBC's "Today" on Thursday. "I was hoping that we all made it out OK. I was afraid for my life."

Ethan Hession, also 13, said he crawled under a table with his friend.

"I just remember looking over at my friend, and all of a sudden he just says to me, `Dear God, save us,'" he told "Today." "Then I just closed my eyes and all of a sudden it's (the tornado) gone."

Ethan said the scouts' first-aid training immediately compelled them to act.

"We knew that we need to place tourniquets on wounds that were bleeding too much. We knew we need to apply pressure and gauze. We had first-aid kits, we had everything," he said.

Ethan said one staff member took off his shirt and put it on someone who was bleeding to apply pressure and gauze. Other scouts started digging people out of the rubble, he said.

The injured were taken to Burgess Health Center in Onawa, Alegent Health Clinic in Missouri Valley and Creighton University Medical Center in Omaha.

The 1,800-acre ranch about 40 miles north of Omaha includes hiking trails through narrow valleys and over steep hills, a 15-acre lake and a rifle range.

The tornado touched down as Iowa's eastern half grappled with flooding in several cities. The storm threatened to stretch Iowa's emergency response teams even further.

Iowa Homeland Security spokeswoman Julie Tack said officials were confident the state's emergency response teams could handle the crisis because western Iowa had been largely unaffected by the recent flooding.

Along the Mississippi River in Missouri and Illinois, the National Weather Service was predicting the worst flooding in 15 years. Outlying areas could be inundated, but most of the towns are protected by levees and many low-lying property owners were bought out after massive flooding in 1993, officials said.

Meanwhile, a line of tornadoes cut a diagonal swath across Kansas, causing widespread damage.

Chapman, a Dickinson County town of about 1,400, appeared to be hardest hit.

Brad Homman, director of administration and emergency services for Dickinson County, said Thursday morning that about 100 homes were destroyed or damaged when the twister struck around 10:30 p.m. Wednesday.

"We have no electricity or water or gas at this point," Hammon told reporters in a briefing. "It may be days before it's restored."

Three critically injured residents were at Geary Community Hospital in nearby Junction City, while dozens of what Homman called "walking wounded" suffered cuts, bruises, scrapes and broken bones.

One victim was found in a yard in Chapman, said Sharon Watson, spokeswoman for the Kansas Adjutant General's Department. The other Kansas victim was found outside a mobile home in the Jackson County town of Soldier, Watson said.

The tornado that struck Kansas State University's campus in Manhattan destroyed a wind erosion laboratory and heavily damaged a fraternity house. Debris littered the campus, and classes were canceled, but the university reported no injuries.

___

Associated Press writers Henry C. Jackson in Des Moines, Iowa; Anna Jo Bratton in Onawa, Iowa; and John Hanna in Chapman, Kan., contributed to this report.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/severe_weather;_ylt=AnhbfJhkyMxHrtfTkIW09zys0NUE

This Evening Has Already Been Devestating...But Wait? Did A Heavily Populated Area Just Get Hit?

2008-06-12T00:17:00.002-04:00

First, more details on the Boy Scout Camp that was hit:
"By Kay Henderson
DES MOINES, Iowa, June 11 (Reuters) - Four people were killed and at least 20 injured when a tornado tore through an Iowa boy scout camp on Wednesday, where dozens of scouts were gathered for a summer retreat, state officials said.
The deadly twister was one of more than 30 that roared through four U.S. Midwestern states on Wednesday. It hit the Little Sioux Scout Ranch in western Iowa about 6:35 p.m. CDT (2135 GMT). More tornadoes were feared for the region Wednesday night.
Ninety-three campers and 25 adults were attending the Little Sioux camp when the tornado struck, said Tina Potthoff, spokeswoman for the Iowa Emergency Operations Center. Potthoff said in addition to the four dead, at least 20 and possibly up to 40 people were injured.
Injured campers were taken to five area hospitals as parents of campers gathered Wednesday night in a nearby church awaiting news and search and rescue teams continued to sift through debris at the camp.
Iowa officials said the state National Guard had been mobilized to assist in search and rescue operations, work that was complicated by the heavily treed area where the camp was located and continued lightning strikes and heavy rain.
The scouts had been attending an annual "Pohuk Pride" weeklong junior leader training event at the 1,800-acre ranch, which has four cabin shelters, a 15-acre lake, a rifle range and six hiking trails.
"We are profoundly saddened ... our heart goes out to all of the families and the children affected by this horrific tragedy," said Gov. Chet Culver.
At least two tornado warnings were issued for the Little Sioux area before the twister struck. State officials said they did not know if there were any warning sirens operating at the camp, however.
The tornado was one of more than 30 reported late Wednesday moving across eastern Kansas into Nebraska, Iowa and into Minnesota, according to Storm Prediction Center.
The tornadoes were accompanied by baseball-sized hail and vicious winds, and came in addition to rampant flooding that has forced hundreds from their homes in Iowa.
Culver has declared 54 of Iowa's 99 counties disaster areas due to damage from the flooding and tornadoes.
Violent weather continued to wrack the region late Wednesday night with tornado watches issued for areas of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri, Iowa and Kansas, the Storm Prediction Center said.
"We still have a threat of tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging wind gusts," said Storm Prediction Center meteorologist Steve Weiss.
"We do have severe weather in the U.S. and we do our best to alert people but sometimes it can be tragic," Weiss said. (Additional reporting by Carey Gillam in Kansas City; editing by Philip Barbara) "
(http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN1133603920080612?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true)

Also, a nursing home was hit on the south side of Salina, KS but ATTM no injuries have been reported.

Also, Chapman, KS reportedly experienced major damage and injuries.

It also looks like Manhattan, KS, where the KSU campus is located (I believe) just took a major hit.

Again, a lot of these stories are still developing, and more may come out. But it is after midnight local time and I have to get up early so I will resume coverage on this devastating evening tomorrow morning.

Also...IA Area Experiencing Flooding

2008-06-11T23:37:00.003-04:00

As you can see a bad flood situation as storms develop in the circle area and continue to train to the NNE, bringing lots of heavy rains. This could be another flooding disaster in a week full of them in WI, IL, IN, MI, and now IA. This has been a very bad severe wx season.

-Also a tornado reportedly hit a nursing home near Salina, KS. Damage and injuries unknown...this is a nightmare severe weather outbreak this evening with a tornado potentially hitting a nursing home full of helpless people and another tornado hitting a camp full of Boy Scouts.

Boy Scout Camp Hit By Tornado

2008-06-11T21:57:00.004-04:00

"DES MOINES - The National Weather Service has received reports of injuries and possibly fatalities from an apparent tornado that struck a Boy Scout camp in western Iowa.
Meteorologist Jim Meyer says law enforcement officials had called the weather service Wednesday evening and reported injuries and damage at the Little Sioux Scout Ranch.
Meyer said: "We believe there were some fatalities and injuries."
A dispatcher with the Harrison County sheriff's department in Iowa says first responders are at the camp and more are en route. She isn't confirming reports of injuries."
(Associated Press)
I apologize for being away from my computer for several days now, but I knew there would be a bad tornado outbreak today and when I got on I heard terrible news. A tornado struck a Boy Scout camp, doing heavy damage and ATM the sketchy details point to at least 4 deaths and 20+ injuries. This is very saddening news considering I was a Boy Scout just a couple years ago and will have more updates if not later this evening than tomorrow morning.

Correction: Dozens of injuries, at least 20 serious, and 3 of them traumatic. This is an extremely bad situation and the news continues to get worse.

Radar of Chicago Area Tornado(s)

2008-06-07T21:05:00.034-04:00

I have saved all the radar images of the tornadic storm that tore through the south side of Chicago this evening. The tornado war reported to be a multiple vortex that at times was a half mile wide or greater. Early reports are sketchy but this tornado went through very heavily populated areas and reports are indicating that homes have been destroyed. More on this shortly.

South Side Getting Rocked

2008-06-07T19:08:00.003-04:00

I have not been able to monitor the severe wx much over the last few days, but I am coming back to a very dangerous situation:
A storm is churning through the heavily populated south side of Chicago. A large and damaging tornado has been reported off and on for half an hour before this post. I will have another update as more info comes in.

Brief Update

2008-06-05T06:21:00.002-04:00

I have been very busy this week, and have one more day of it, so I have not been able to update nearly as much as I would like. So today instead of whipping up a quick, potentially bad outlook I will direct you to the SPC site, where you can keep track of their severe outlooks and all the watches. I would recommend this because a severe weather outbreak is expected in the Planes. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Wednesday/Wednesday Night Severe

2008-06-03T23:14:00.002-04:00

More significant severe weather is possible tomorrow, and Chicago has moved into the threat zone for this one. It looks like things will be getting very unstable tomorrow in the moderate risk zone, with super cells developing there starting in late afternoon, and shifting east tomorrow night with another MCS possibly developing. I will have an update on this tomorrow afternoon.

PS: This evening I have heard possible reports of major damage/injuries from tonight's tornadoes. Due to a lack of time I haven't gotten a good chance to look at that and won't until late tomorrow, but I'm sure that your local news stations may be covering it if there are deaths/major damage reported.

Huge Severe Outbreak Ongoing

2008-06-03T21:39:00.005-04:00

As expected, a huge severe weather outbreak with tornadoes has developed this evening, however it is farther south than outlined this morning. So, this evening and tonight storms will continue over the same areas they are now, with a flooding and severe threat throughout the night. Tomorrow, the front will drift a little farther north, with more severe weather possible on this. Forecast for that coming soon.

Tornado Outbreak Followed By Derecho Late Today

2008-06-03T06:20:00.002-04:00

A moderate risk for severe storms has been issued by the SPC today. I have and still am extremely busy, so cannot cover these storms like I would like, but it looks like in the western and central moderate risk storms, likely super cells with a tornado threat will develop by early evening, and move east across the rest of the moderate risk this evening, while transitioning into more of a derecho with a damaging wind threat. Another update late this evening.

Monday Severe

2008-06-01T21:51:00.005-04:00

There have been some problems with the models updating today, so I will not be making my own severe weather outlook. There are other sources of information that I use like, different severe weather parameters like "significant tornado parameter" and stuff like that to supplement my outlooks, but considering I have only been using those parameters to supplement my outlooks for a couple of months, it would not be a good idea to use them to make an outlook, without the original model data. I do expect to make an outlook for Tuesday tomorrow evening, hopefully.

Saturday: Severe Shifts Into the Northeast

2008-05-30T23:50:00.001-04:00

Before my discussion, here is what the numbers on the map mean. The %'s are the chances of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point. That means if you pick a point, that is the probability that severe weather will occur within 25 miles of it. Here is my discussion:
A cold front will continue to push south, now into the Northeast, southern Planes, and the Ohio Valley. Instability will be growing south of it, and moisture will be plentiful. The question is, where will the best instability be and best wind shear will be. I believe that from the Ohio river and points SW along the front, instability will be pretty high with CAPEs of 1500-2500. LIs will also be below -5 in that area. So in the risk zones from the Ohio river points SW, hail and locally damaging winds will be possible with any of the stronger storms. Wind shear will not be that high here so tornadoes are not a big threat. In the Northeast/Mid Atlantic, the set up is a little more complicated with questions to where the extensive cloud cover will be and where the best shear will be. I believe that most of the NE, from central PA/central NJ northward will have mostly cloudy skies most of the day from tonight's leftovers. This will really limit instability. However, south of that area, there will be more sun, dew points will be in the upper 60s, which will allow CAPEs of up to 2000, and LIs of as low as -6. These numbers will allow storms to bubble up in the moderate risk area, and with the wind shear damaging winds and tornadoes, along with large hail are all threats in this area. I believe that the storms will fire along the cold front in mid Afternoon, and become severe fairly quickly. These storms will fire in SE PA, MD, and western VA and move ENE quickly. There could very well be an organized line of storms along the cold front with discrete super cellular storms ahead of it. Farther north, instability will be lower, so the severe threat will be lower. If those areas can get some sun in the afternoon, scattered storms will develop along the front, but moisture will be a little lower, instability will be lower, and shear will be slightly lower, so farther north the severe threat is there but not as high as the mid Atlantic.

Severe Outbreak Getting Going

2008-05-30T15:38:00.002-04:00

A tornado watch has been issued from MO-IL-IN. Storms are already firing in it, and will likely grow in size and strength this evening. Tornadoes are a big threat, along with damaging winds, and hail. As I have been saying the storms will be more super-cellular in nature early in the evening, but by late evening will organize into a complex of storms that will rapidly move east overnight with a damaging wind threat.

If You Are in a Severe Risk Area Today...

2008-05-30T06:18:00.002-04:00

Another large severe weather outbreak is expected today. If you live in an area outlined in my previous post, of by your local weathermen keep your eyes to the sky late this afternoon and this evening. You can also check the warning box on the right side of my blog or your local news stations to see if severe weather is moving your way. I will not be able to update around 4, but stay safe until then.

More Severe WX Expected Friday/Friday Night

2008-05-29T21:15:00.003-04:00

On Friday/Friday night another major severe weather outbreak is expected in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, lower Great Lakes, and parts of the Ohio valley. Here is what I expect to happen:
Tomorrow destabilization will occur in the warm sector south of a cold front. CAPEs will be 2000+ (good for severe), LIs will be -6 to -10 (good severe) and wind shear will be high. This will allow storms to explode in northern MO, SE IA, IL, southern WI, and western IN. With high wind shear and instability huge hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be big threats. Tomorrow late afternoon/early evening as the storms are just initializing, super cells are very possible, especially in the moderate risk with tornadoes. Tomorrow evening, the storms will organize into a MCS over IL/IN, and rapidly move east through extreme southern Michigan, Ohio, and into PA with a damaging wind and flood threat as it goes along, due to the strong low level jet. Tomorrow night the MCS will weaken some as it moves into an area of much less instability. The severe threat will persist in the Ohio Valley/NE/Mid Atlantic Saturday.
FYI: My next post will be Friday around 4, analyzing tomorrows outbreak, and forecasting Saturday's outbreak.

Parts of northern KS (Glen Elder area) may have just gotten hit by a strong tornado. Unfortunetly I will not be able to look into this more until Friday afternoon.

Alma Named in East Pacific Late Last Night

2008-05-29T20:30:00.003-04:00

Last night the organized area of low pressure in the eastern Pacific was named TD 1, and quickly become TS Alma. It is moving into Central America now, and will likely become disorganized over land. It will likely not move back out into the East Pac over the next few days. Flooding and gusty winds are likely over Central America as it slowly moves to the N and then NW.

As Expected, Severe WX Outbreak Ongoing, HIGH Risk Even Issued

2008-05-29T20:03:00.005-04:00

A large severe weather outbreak is ongoing in the central Planes, and with extreme instability and wind shear lots of storms are quickly developing, and a lot of them are trying to drop tornadoes. This will continue this evening. Here is my forecast:

The organized clusters of super cell thunderstorms in northern KS, eastern NB, and getting into parts of west IA will continue to bring a tornado threat, especially with newly developing storms. Some strong tornadoes are still possible through the evening. However, as time goes on the storms will organize into a complex of severe storms, or a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). This will rapidly move ENE throughout the night, through IA, southern MN, northern MO, and into IL and WI. It will pose a damaging wind and flooding rain threat throughout the night. With the strong moist southerly flow persisting over the Planes from the Gulf, storms will continue back building over night, so parts of KS, MO, and southern IA, and SW NB could see hours of heavy rain along with a severe threat over night, as the storms continue to train. I will have tomorrow's outlook soon.

Friday/Friday Night: Special Advanced Release Map

2008-05-28T21:36:00.004-04:00

Here is my Friday-Friday night severe weather outlook. This is still a couple days away, but here is my best guess as to what will happen: The morning MCS will affect MI/northern PA/NY. This will limit instability in these areas due to the cloud cover and rain it will bring with it. However, south of those areas, and behind the cold front, in IN, IL, southern WI, MI, and IA should see some sun and moisture will be building throughout the day. This will allow instability to increase with CAPE values in a lot of areas of 2000+ (favorable for severe), and LIs of less than -6 (favorable for severe). This will let scattered storms explode in those areas (western 2/3 of moderate risk). This, along with the strong wind shear will cause an enhanced damaging wind and tornado threat, and the high instability will also cause a large hail threat on Friday. Late Friday afternoon/early evening, as the storms are initializing in the areas mentioned above super cellular storms are possible, especially as the storms are initializing. The storms will rapidly start moving east due to the fast flow aloft, and organize into a MCS during the evening over eastern IL/eastern WI/NW MI, and rapidly race east with a pronounced damaging wind threat and flood threat, especially due to the strong southerly flow in the lower levels, which will enhance the wind threat and bring up plenty of moisture to allow for heavy rains. Late evening into the overnight the MCS will race east through eastern IN and Ohio. By late Friday night the MCS should move into PA. Instability will be marginal but a 850MB (5,000 feet above sea level) jet will be roaring at 60 knots out of the SSW should allow the storms to continue with a heavy rain and damaging wind threat much of the night through PA. By Saturday morning the MCS should be approaching the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England. It should begin to weaken by then as it will be moving into even more stable air and the low level jet will weaken some.

FYI: I am not happy about this but I will not be able to get on my computer until late tomorrow, but at 8-830pm Thursday I will post my normal daily forecasts. Stay tuned for that, and feel free to reaf Thursday's forecasts below.

Thursday/Thursday Night Severe

2008-05-28T19:07:00.003-04:00

A low pressure will be developing in the western Planes tomorrow, bring heat and humidity northward and strengthening the upper level winds, which will increase wind shear. Down in west TX, OK, and eastern NM, and SE CO a dry line will be the focal point of isolated storms tomorrow. Wind shear will be high enough so some severe storms, with tornadoes will be a threat along that dry line. Farther north, heat, humidity will be building all day, which will allow instability to also get high. Also, wind shear will be increasing in the western Planes. So, late tomorrow evening instability will be very high and things will likely explode in SE SD, eastern NB, western IA, and SW MN. Wind shear will also really be increasing tomorrow evening, so I believe that the areas mentioned above (the moderate risk zone) will see widespread storms developing by early evening tomorrow, with large hail, an enhanced damaging wind potential, and an enhanced tornado potential will exist with the storms, as wind shear will be high and instability will be very high. Late in the evening, the storms (which may be super cellular early in the evening) will likely organize into a complex of severe storms, or a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). Once the storms organize into an MCS high winds will be the biggest threat along with flooding. The MCS will race east overnight, likely getting into Michigan by Friday morning.

Thursday Forecast

2008-05-28T18:37:00.001-04:00

Mild weather will dominate the northeast. It will be cool to start with more frosts/freezes in the interior, but it will rebound nicely to near normal conditions by afternoon with mostly sunny skies. Day 1 of a 3 day severe weather outbreak will take place tomorrow in the Planes, with a storm threat along with warm and humid conditions. The NW will chill down a bit with a north flow developing behind this system, with some rain also possible in the NW. Tomorrow's severe map will be out by 7-730PM EDT.

Tropical Development in Caribbean or Eastern Pacific?

2008-05-28T15:39:00.004-04:00

An area of low pressure has developed just off the Central America coast in the Eastern Pacific. Right now, it is just drifting around and not going anywhere. Right now, it is near land and not in a faverable spot to develop into anything named. It is expected to remain that way for a while. Now, will this low head into the Atlantic side of Central America and perhaps threaten the US? I dought it. There is a lot of ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and the southern US, so this should keep this system out of the Atlantic. However, in 8-10 days the ridging will weaken and the pattern will remain favorable for the possibility of another low spinning up near Central America, so in 10-14+ days we may need to monitor for another possible tropical system near the US or Mexico. So, to sum it all up, here is my forecast: An area of low pressure has spun up near Central America over the Eastern Pacific. This low is drifting around, and is expected to continue to drift N-NW over the next few days. Wind shear is low enough for tropical development, and water temps are warm enough, but this system will remain close to Central America and Mexico, so there is less than a 25% chance in my opinion of a named storm coming out of this. Even though this low may not be named, its close proximaty to land and slow movement will cause possibly deadly flooding over Central America and eventually Mexico. Down the road (10-14+days out) another low may spin up near Central America, and may eventually threaten the US. I will have a more detailed look at tomorrow's severe by 6-630PM EDT.

Preview of Late Week Severe Storms

2008-05-27T22:43:00.007-04:00

For now this is just a brief preview, but later this week, Thursday-Sunday there could be a major severe weather outbreak, with tornadoes being a threat. I posted the GFS forecast for Thursday evening, showing some activity in the Planes. I also posted the SPC outlooks for this time period, and large areas are outlined, especially for Friday-Saturday. Now, what the setup is going to be: Late Thursday, a low pressure will develop in the southern Planes, and move NE towards the southern Great Lakes by later Friday, then through New England on Saturday. Now, there will be plenty of instability south of the low, and there will be high amounts of wind shear in the warm sector as the low tracks NE. This could spark severe weather all along the track of this low. I will have more details on this over the next couple days, as if this pans out we could see another significant severe weather outbreak.

FYI: I will not be able to update this blog until about 4PM on Wednesday. But I will go into more detail about the late week severe weather outbreak, update the forecasts for Thursday, and cover any more breaking weather news. Still feel free to read the posts below for forecasts for Wednesday, a brief look at the late week severe weather outbreak, and info on the weekend tornadoes. The Parkersburg tornado was rated an EF5 (see that post below).

Wednesday/Wednesday Night Severe

2008-05-27T21:45:00.003-04:00

Here is my severe weather outlook for tomorrow and tomorrow night. The cold front that slid through the NE/Mid Atlantic today will still be affecting the deep south. There won't be much wind shear with this, but there will be plenty of moisture and high instability, which should lead to scattered to widespread storms tomorrow in the deep south, with a hail/high wind threat with the stronger storms. The tornado threat will be low, except for in TX/NM. An area of low pressure will begin to organize in that region late tomorrow, so wind shear may pick up some in that area, adding a small tornado threat. Other then that I believe that the TX/OK/NM area will see scattered storms developing tomorrow, with a hail/damaging wind threat in the stronger storms.
I need to step away from the computer for a bit, but over the next hour or so expect a post previewing the severe weather outbreak(?) that may occur later this week into the weekend, and if I have time I will detail the possibility of a tropical system developing within the next few days in the Caribbean.

Wednesday Forecast

2008-05-27T21:27:00.003-04:00

Here is a look at Wednesday's forecast. In the Great Lakes/Northeast, it will be a very chilly start in the wake of a cold front. Frosts/freezes are possible, so if you happen to be under a frost advisory/freeze warning, heed it and cover up any tender vegetation. In the areas behind the front tomorrow, it will recover some in the afternoon under partly to mostly sunny skies, but highs tomorrow will be 5-15 degrees below normal behind the front. The same front will bring more showers/storms to the south, along with warm and humid conditions south of the front also. The west will continue to warm, but in the Pac NW there will be a west wind, which could bring some showers to the NW, and with some cooler air aloft there could even be some thunder in the afternoon there. I will have the severe wx forecast for tomorrow by 10:10PM EDT.

Current Severe WX Situation

2008-05-27T20:22:00.004-04:00

We have a couple areas of severe concern this evening, western TX/maybe SE OK, and parts of the NE/Mid Atlantic.

Western TX/SE OK: As I said yesterday there is plenty of moisture and instability in this area, which is fueling storms, with large hail and damaging winds. However, wind shear is rather weak in this area so as I said yesterday just a very small tornado threat in this area. So, this evening scattered to at times widespread storms will continue in the same general area they are in now, perhaps spreading east-southeast a bit. The threats will continue to be large hail, damaging winds, isolated flooding, and maybe a renegade tornado. The storms will continue through this evening, but will slowly diminish later tonight.

Southern Northeast/Mid Atlantic: A cold front is sliding south through the area. As I said last night instability is marginal and wind shear is very low. But, with a strong cold front coming through storms have fired along the front this afternoon, with heavy rains, gusty winds, and dangerous lightning. But, severe weather with the front in the NE/Mid Atlantic has been very limited up to this point, and is expected to remain very limited this evening. The storms will continue to push SE tonight as the front pushes south, but should really weaken after sun down.

I will update tomorrow's forecasts soon.

Parkersburg Tornado Officially an EF5

2008-05-27T19:55:00.005-04:00

An aerial view of a residential neighborhood in Parkersburg, Iowa, is seen a day after a tornado struck the town, Monday, May 26, 2008. This year is already the deadliest for tornadoes since 1998 and is on track to break records for the number of twisters too, the National Weather Service says. (AP Photo/Kevin Sanders)

The National Weather service survey team made it official today, the tornado that devastated Parkersburg, IA was a EF5 tornado on the Enhanced Fujita scale, meaning it packed winds of 200+MPH. This is the first F5 tornado in Iowa since 1976. Earlier, there were some rumors saying that the town of Parkersburg would be bulldozed over. Those rumors are not true, according to Parkersburg city officials. Here is a video taken of the tornado by storm spotters, including what they saw when rolling into Parkersburg: Video
Here is the official release from the NWS in Des Moines, IA.

Check Back Tomorrow Evening

2008-05-26T23:08:00.004-04:00

Unfortunetly I will be away from my computer until 8 Tuesday evening, so I will not be able to post until then. Still, feel free to read the posts below. There is a wealth of links to important information, stories, pictures, ect of Sunday's deadly tornado outbreak. There are also forecasts for Tuesday. Tuesday evening I do expect to post:
1. Any new info about Sunday's deadly tornadoes
2. The forecasts for Wednesday
3. Preview the possible outbreak this weekend
4. If I have time, I will preview the possible tropical system later this week. That's right, it's that time of year again!

Tuesday/Tuesday Night Severe

2008-05-26T22:23:00.002-04:00

Well, tomorrow looks like things will really calm down tomorrow severe weather wise. We have some areas where there is a small risk of severe weather. In the northeast, there will be a cold front coming southward. To me, this really looks non-impressive severe wise for the NE. That slight risk is a very low end slight risk in my opinion. Instability tomorrow will be OK, with some peaks of sun expected, and moisture will be OK with dew points in the lower to maybe middle 60s. So, with the front coming through in the afternoon some showers and storms will develop, but I do not think many of them will get severe. Again, instablity will be OK, but not great, and there will really be no wind shear in the Northeast tomorrow. So, maybe some small hail and gusty downdraft winds with the strongest storms in the northeast tomorrow. In the south, a wave of low pressure will be riding along the same cold front. However, things in the south are also not great for severe weather. There will be almost no wind shear, however, moisture and instability will be plentiful in the southern Mississippi Valley area slight risk. So, I think that scattered showers/storms will develop in that area in the afternoon, with hail and isolated damaging winds in the stronger storms in the south. So tomorrow, everyone will get a chance to catch there breath with really no threat for tornadoes anywhere in the continental US.

Tuesday Forecast

2008-05-26T22:09:00.002-04:00

Here is a quick look at tomorrow's forecast. A cold front will be moving through the NE/Mid Atlantic, and some strong storms could develop. Another wave of low pressure, the one bringing severe weather tonight to the southern Planes will move east, sparking some more rainy/stormy conditions. Some storms in the deep south could get strong tomorrow afternoon but it will not get out of control. The west will remain a little bit unstable so some showers are possible, but it will be getting a little warmer in the west.

Severe Weather Ongoing in OK, KS, TX, and AR

2008-05-26T19:51:00.006-04:00

We have quite a few severe thunderstorms in the southern Planes this evening. There have been several tornado warnings but so far none of the storms have looked like they have produced severe damage, although the one that is now near Ponka/Newkirk, OK at the moment looks like it may as it looks impressive on radar and is moving through populated areas. More on that later if anything comes out of it. So, you can see above where the storms are now, and where the watches and warning are. But where will the storms threaten later this evening and tonight? Well, it looks like over the next 2-4 hours, there will be isolated storms in SW TX with a hail, wind and tornado threat due to a dry line in that area. Now, in far north TX, western and northern OK, and south/central Kansas is the big threat zone. Wind shear is much high in that area, and that area has more moisture and is more unstable. So, widespread storms will continue to affect that area, with all modes of severe, including the chance of some strong tornadoes will be possible in that area. Later this evening, as the storms become more organized and jet stream energy continues to strengthen, these storms will organize into a complex of storms or a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). This will move ESE through SE Kansas, eastern OK, and maybe skirting far northern TX. This complex of storms may also end up in far SE MO/western AR later tonight. These storms will bring a tornado threat through the evening, but as the night goes on the threat with these storms will transform into more of a damaging wind threat. Flooding is also possible with this complex of storms. Of less concern is an area of storms in AR along an old outflow boundary. Wind shear is not that high, but with very high instability some hail/strong winds are possible with any storms. These storms should slowly dissipate late this evening. There is also a cold front moving through the lower GLs/NW New England. Some storms are trying to fire but the severe threat along this front this evening remains rather low.

Coon Rapids, MN Tornado an EF1...Hugo, MN Tornado and EF3

2008-05-26T19:25:00.004-04:00

"A path of destruction is seen after a severe storm swept through Hugo, Minn. on Sunday, May 25, 2008. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)"

The preliminary damage survey is done in the Twin Cities area, and it appears that there were two tornadoes spawned from the same storm north of the Twin Cities. The first tornado affected the Coon Rapids area. Here is part of the NWS statement regaurding the tornado: "THE FIRST TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN COON RAPIDS AND LIFTED IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF BLAINE. THIS TORNADO PRODUCED EF1 DAMAGE...LIKELY CAUSED BY WINDS BETWEEN 86 AND 110 MPH." The second tornado was longer tracked, stronger, and was the one that took the life of a 2 year old toddler. This was the Hugo, MN tornado. Here is part of the the NWS regarding this tornado: "THE SECOND...AND MOST DAMAGING...TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF LINO LAKES...CONTINUING THROUGH THE COMMUNITY OF HUGO. THIS TORNADO PRODUCED EF3 DAMAGE...LIKELY RESULTING FROM TORNADIC WINDS IN THE 136 TO 165 MPH RANGE. THE SURVEY TEAM HAS NOT YET DETERMINED WHERE THIS SECOND TORNADO TERMINATED...AND FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF DAMAGE REPORTS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL BE UNDERTAKEN TOMORROW...TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE TORNADO CONTINUED INTO THAT AREA." Again, if there is any more new info tomorrow I will post it here.

Storms in KS, OK, NW TX Only to Get Worse This Evening

2008-05-26T17:23:00.002-04:00

A piece of energy will ride along the cold front this evening, sparking more severe storms in TX, OK, and KS. There is a growing amount of wind shear, so severe weather is very possible in the areas outlined above. I expect large hail, damaging winds, and yes, even the threat of more possibly destructive tornadoes this evening, especially in the red shaded area.

PS: Sorry about not posting this sooner and not being more detailed in my discussion, but I have been busy today still posting info on yesterdays deadly twisters and have just been busy otherwise with family/friends/what not on this holiday.

Prelimanry Rating For Parkersburg Tornado: EF3+

2008-05-26T17:00:00.003-04:00

"A tattered American flag sits atop a mound of debris at a destroyed convenience store in Parkersburg, Iowa, on Monday, May 26, 2008, a day after a tornado struck the town.(AP Photo/Kevin Sanders)"

A preliminary survey from the NWS in Des Moines, IA concluded that the tornado that affected the Parkersburg, IA area was at least an EF3 on the Enhanced Fujita scale, possibly higher. The tornado's path was 43 miles long and up to 1.2 miles wide. Prilimanry fatalities stand at 7, preliminary injuries stand at around 70. At the end of the NWS preliminary statement it said: "ADDITIONAL DETAIL WILL BE ADDED TO THIS REPORT ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH FINAL EF SCALE RATING RESULTS." So, that basically means that tomorrow we will know the exact details regarding track and strength.

I found the AP slide show of storm damage from the Parkersburg IA, and Hugo, MN area tornadoes, and the pictures are truly devastating. You can view all 50+ pictures at this location:

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Storms-hit-Iowa-Minn/ss/events/us/052508tornadoeskan;_ylt=AkpO5ZeNTe77ktcnwE7C14Gs0NUE#photoViewer=/080526/photos_ts_afp/a7eea6d72cf32bb4c4d1db54335274d8

Total Stats So Far From This 4 Day Outbreak

2008-05-26T16:22:00.006-04:00

The outbreak still is on-going, with a severe threat still for today/tonight, but how has it added up so far? Well, so far there have been four pretty active days, with yesterday by far having the most severe reports. So far, since Thursday we have had 172 tornado reports and 952 wind/hail reports (not including today). So, this has been a widespread, long lived severe weather outbreak that has brought thousands of severe reports. I will update these stats later this week after this outbreak concludes (we have to get through tomorrow first).

Some More Info on Hugo, MN Tornado

2008-05-26T10:24:00.007-04:00

Here is a link to some areal coverage of the Hugo tornado (near the Twin Cities). Some houses were heavily damaged. One death has been confirmed from this tornado. Unfortunately it was a two year old toddler.

http://kstp.com/article/stories/s455844.shtml?cat=63v=1

This story I posted last night in its entirety, but it has been updated. According to the story about 50 homes have been destroyed in Hugo, MN.

http://wcco.com/weathernewsstories/severe.thunderstorms.minnesota.2.732463.html

Before barreling through Hugo, MN, the storm brought a tornado to the Coon, MN area. Two people were injured.

http://www.kare11.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=512067

Here is a video report from that site:

http://www.kare11.com/video/player.aspx?aid=72067&bw =

Here is another article. According to the article, one death has occurred and 8 injuries have been reported because of the tornado. It is estimated that at least 50 homes were destroyed and another 100 were seriously damaged. Read the whole article below. There is also a link to a photo gallery on this site:

http://www.startribune.com/19246464.html

Here is the story from the Fox station in the Twin Cities. It has information including damage statistics, and links to photo galleries from the storm.

http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/myfox/pages/Home/Detail?contentId=6625596&version=3&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=1.1.1

Here is a related story from the Associated Press:

http://www.thedickinsonpress.com/ap/index.cfm?page=view&id=D90T084O3

The storm also reported gulf ball-baseball sized hail and damaging straight line winds along with the tornadoes.

More Details Come Out About Parkersburg, IA Tornado

2008-05-26T08:31:00.012-04:00

AP Photo/Kevin Sanders
The above picture is what is left of a house in Parkersburg. Nothing left, just a foundation. You can't even tell where the rest of the house is. There isn't even a pile of debris. The tornado was just that strong.

The above picture is from a home video shot as the tornado approached Parkersburg, Iowa yesterday evening. The full story and video can be read and watched by clicking the below line. But, the story says that as of this morning "A tornado killed seven people and injured at least 50 others as it pushed through the town of Parkersburg near Cedar Falls Sunday night.
Five of the deaths were in the town of Parkersburg and two were in New Hartford. Unfortunately it says "officials are still searching damaged properties, and that the death toll and injury numbers could climb." So, it does not look good out of the Parkersburg area this morning. From everything I have looked at, it unfortunately appears that the southern half of town was wiped out, which is just terrible. Again the link immediately below this text is to the whole story and video of the tornado and damage.

http://www.kcci.com/news/16391215/detail.html

The next link is to some very revealing areal shots taken by a chopper yesterday evening over Parkersburg. It shows that this tornado was truly devastating.

http://www.whotv.com/global/video/flash/popupplayer.asp?ClipID1=2524497&h1=13Raw%3A%20Chopper%2013%20Video%20--%20Parkersburg%20Flattened&vt1=v&at1=News&d1=285067&LaunchPageAdTag=News&activePane=info&rnd=34160051

Here is the related story from the news station that had the chopper shots in the link above:

http://www.whotv.com/global/story.asp?s=8378124

The next link below has another video showing the extreme damage, and has another related story, including a couple of witness accounts of what happened.

http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/19252984.html/

This next story is a bit brief, but it shows that this tornado was fairly long tracked, and that the damage was not limited to Parkersburg. It also has a few damage pics.

http://www.kwwl.com/Global/story.asp?S=8378690

This next story goes into detail about the damage near Dunkerton, IA. That city was hit by a deadly tornado back in 2000. There are also some damage pics and a link to a video report in the upper left corner.

http://www.kwwl.com/global/story.asp?s=8378707

Here is a video report out of North Waterloo, IA.

http://www.kwwl.com/global/video/flash/popupplayer.asp?ClipID1=2525048&h1=Waterloo%20Storm%20Damage&vt1=v&at1=News&d1=48034&LaunchPageAdTag=News&activePane=info&rnd=11312563

Here is a detailed story from the Associated Press, along with a few damage photos:

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jW-BndswWuhgPAPXOK4Q6TCQsANQD90TANJ80

Here is another detailed story. I posted it in its entirty yesterday evening, but it has been updated and is now much more detailed.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080526/NEWS/805260324/-1/SPORTS0808

This storm not only produced large, damaging tornadoes, but there was also a 93MPH straight line wind gust measured at the Waterloo Airport, and softball-grapefruit sized hail was also reported with this storm.

Chicago Under the gun Tonight?

2008-05-25T23:26:00.001-04:00

It could get interesting in Chicago in a couple of hours:
There is a small bow echo rapidly moving ESE across northern IL, with a damaging wind threat. If it continues on its current corse and holds together Chicago could see some severe weather in a couple of hours. However, bow echos like this sometimes dive toward the south, so the brunt of the severe may be just south of Chicago. There is another batch of t-storms in central IA that is moving ENE, which may impact eastern IA, NE MO, and central IL over the next few hours. High winds are also the biggest threat there.

So, if I lived in or near Chicago, what would I do? Keep my weather radio ready, and be ready to act if any warnings come in in the middle of the night.

Monday/Monday Night Severe

2008-05-25T23:01:00.002-04:00

The same system will bring severe weather to the same areas tomorrow, just shifted a little farther southeast. The biggest area of concern is in Kansas, where a little stronger jet streak will move through tomorrow evening. If storms can fire, which is likely in that area there could be some significant severe weather once again. In Texas, there will again be a severe threat along a dry line. There will also be a severe threat along the same cold front that brough tons of severe today from Missouri into southern Michigan, but tomorrow will be different than today. There will be clouds to limit instablity some, and not nearly as much shear as today. This will keep the severe threat relativly small, however if some sun breaks out there will be scattered storms, some of which severe developing tomorrow afternoon along the cold front. Hail, high winds, and isolated tornadoes will all be threats. On a side note, I would not be surprised to see some high winds, or even a tornado or two in upstate New York, with the same jet max that brough all the severe weather today moving across that area. But, due to limited instablity it would not get out of hand like it did today.

Memorial Day Forecast

2008-05-25T22:29:00.002-04:00

It has been a very active weekend, with lots of severe weather in the central US. For the holiday, is looks like that will continue, with severe weather possible from parts of NY back to Texas. It could rain on a lot of people's parades tomorrow, with at least a 30% chance of rain for much of the nation (anywhere colored is a 30%+ chance of rain). It will be warm in the south, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast, but cooler in the upper Great Lakes and Midwest behind a cold front. The southwest will warm some but it will not get too hot. The Rockies will remain cool with a chance of showers, and the northwest will also warm a little to seasonable conditions with only small rain chances.

Some Links for the Twin Cities Area Tornadoes

2008-05-25T22:05:00.002-04:00

http://wcco.com/
http://www.kstp.com/
http://www.kare11.com/
http://www.channel4000.com/index.html
http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/myfox/
http://www.startribune.com/local/19246464.html?location_refer=Taste
http://www.thedickinsonpress.com/ap/index.cfm?page=view&id=D90T084O3
http://www.kxmb.com/News/241809.asp
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jW-BndswWuhgPAPXOK4Q6TCQsANQD90T03E00

Some Links to Info on Waterloo, IA Area Tornadoes

2008-05-25T22:00:00.003-04:00

I do not want to be posting each story in its full context as they come out so, here are some links:
http://www.wcfcourier.com/articles/2008/05/25/news/top_story/doc4839f26069e5c347098257.txt
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080525/NEWS/80525003/-1/BUSINESS04
http://www.gazetteonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080525/NEWS/326681311/1006
http://www.kcci.com/news/16391215/detail.html
http://www.kcrg.com/
http://www.kcrg.com/news/streaming/10476432.html?video=pop&t=a (streaming live, for now)
http://www.kwwl.com/
http://www.kimt.com/news/local/19250124.html

Damage Reports Out of Parkersburg Don't Look Good

2008-05-25T21:47:00.004-04:00

I have been searching and Google News finally showed a story out of Parkersburg, IA. It does not look good. Unfortunetly no pictures accompany story but the article below does paint a pretty desestaiting image. Story below:

"Tornado takes out Parkersburg high school

A tornado about a mile wide left behind extensive damage, injuries and possible fatalities in northeast Iowa early this evening, officials said.The tornado ripped off the roof of the high school in Parkersburg and took out sections of the building, said Superintendent Jon Thompson.The high school will never be used again, he said.Houses to the south of the high school were also flattened, Thompson said.The parking lot at the high school was turned into a triage center, and district officials this evening opened up the middle school in Aplington and an elementary school in Parkersburg as shelters.The tornado moved between 5:30 and 6:15 p.m. from Aplington to New Hartford to the north side of Waterloo and then into Dunkerton, according to Miles Schumacher, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.Schumacher said more than one tornado probably touched down, but most of the damage was caused by the mile-wide tornado.The Waterloo airport reported wind speeds of 93 mph, Schumacher said.This storm system caused the most damage in Iowa so far this year. Tornadoes hit southern Iowa on April 10, causing damage but no injuries.Gary Frank, an elder at First Congregational church in Parkersburg also offered up shelter.“You can’t even tell anything has happened here, but just two blocks up the street its total devastation,” he said.The major damage occurred on the south side of the town’s main strip, Frank said. Downed power lines, roofless buildings and emergency vehicles filled the street this evening while residents remained inside. “I think people are still in a state of shock,” he said.Power lines have also been knocked down in the area, leaving many residents without power.This evening, Iowa State Patrol troopers are blocking the entrances to Parkersburg.A dispatcher with the Butler County sheriff’s department said authorities were investigating damage to a grain elevator that may have caused an anhydrous ammonia leak.
The Associated Press contributed to this article."
Source: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080525/NEWS/80525003/-1/SPORTS0806

A Quick Forecast For the Rest of Tonight's Severe Weather

2008-05-25T21:13:00.002-04:00

STORMS IN WISCONSIN, AND STORMS IN IOWA HAVE BOTH DEVELOPED INTO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO CHARGE EAST WITH HIGH WIND THREAT, AND POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
The super cells that have and still are producing tornadoes across Minnesota and Iowa are developing into big complexes of storms, which could produce straight line wind damage. The complex that is now over north-central Wisconsin will charge east to maybe a little south of east over the next couple of hours. It will weaken as we loose day time heating and as the storms reach lake Michigan. The other complex of storms, in NE Iowa, NW IL, and far southern WI will continue to slide ESE, and the storms will continue to back build and train through the rest of the evening. This will bring a continued severe threats the areas I mentioned above, and increase a flooding threat. Due to very high wind shear there will be a high damaging wind threat for the next several hours, and also a tornado threat for the next couple of hours. This complex of storms has had a history of producing devastating tornadoes. I think this complex will bring some storms to Chicago. Will they hold together and still be severe? That is definitely a possibility. There is another area of storms, possibly tornadic at times in southern IL, eastern MO, and northern AR associated with a MCV. These will continue to drift ENE, with high winds, hail, tornadoes and flooding rains continuing to be threats as the night goes on. There is another MCS in Kansas along the cold front, which will bring a high wind, hail, and flooding threat as it moves east into Missouri, eastern KS, and even SW Iowa. There is another line of storms in the Texas Panhandle, along the dry line, with all modes of severe being possible. These should continue to be severe through around midnight, but after midnight the loss of day time heating should let these storms SLOWLY die down. Again, it has been such a busy evening, that is why I was not a little more detailed in my reasoning, and just said where I think these storms will go. I just don't have time, essentially. I am going to try to also squeeze in tomorrow's forecast within the next couple hours.

Another Deadly Tornado in Minnasota

2008-05-25T21:01:00.007-04:00

These are just three of the pictures of the devestation in Hugo, MN, that was hit by a tornado on Sunday afternoon. More pictures can be seen by clicking on the slideshow link below.

Here is the story from WCCO in the Twin Cities: (link to the site I got it from below)

"2-Year-Old Killed, 20 Missing In Hugo Tornado

Slideshow: Overhead Images Of Hugo Devastation

HUGO, Minn. (AP) ― A town official says a 2-year-old child has died and 20 are missing after a severe storm swept through a St. Paul suburb.Hugo Fire Chief Jim Compton says another child in critical condition and transported to Regions Hospital in St. Paul and another eight people were taken to area hospitals with injuries.Hugo City Administrator Mike Ericson says at least one dozen homes were destroyed and another three dozen damaged.Residents reported a tornado touching down in the area, but that has not been confirmed by the National Weather Service."It's horrible," Ericson said. "The citizens are very shook and scared."Dozens of emergency crews descended on the town to look for those who have not been located and assess the damage. About 15,500 customers in the northeast metro area were without power, Xcel Energy Company said.Hugo Public Works Director Chris Petree said his family took shelter in the basement before the storm lifted his house off the ground and completely wiped out the second floor of the home."I put my daughter down first, my wife on top of her and then I bear-hugged on top of them," Petree said.The storm system started northwest of the Twin Cities and quickly spread across the north metro area from Albertville through Coon Rapids and Hugo to the northeast. The National Weather Service confirmed a tornado touched down in Coon Rapids, downing power lines and uprooting trees.Earlier in the afternoon, the most damaging effects of the storm system came from large hail, ranging from nickel-sized to baseball-sized as it pelted Monticello, Maple Lake and Albertville, where some windows in houses and car windshields were shattered.Almost 800 were powerless in the St. Cloud-Monticello area as well, Xcel said.Hugo appeared to be the hardest hit, with residents saying a tornado touched down near the city's downtown late Sunday afternoon. They reported large hail, high winds and torrential rains as the system blew through the town.As he huddled in his basement against a foundation wall with his wife and 2 1/2-year-old daughter, Petree said they heard the thunderous sound of their house coming off the ground."All you hear is glass breaking and wood tearing and breaking in half," Petree said.A tornado watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.Several counties are under the watch. They include Anoka, Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Dodge, Faribault, Fillmore, Freeborn, Goodhue, Hennepin, Houston, Isanti, Kandiyohi, LeSueur, Martin, McLeod, Meeker, Mower, Nicollet, Olmsted, ramsey, Renville, Rice, Scott, Sherburne, Sibley, Steele, Wabasha, Waseca, Washington, Watonwan, Winona and Wright counties."

Source: http://wcco.com/weathernewsstories/severe.thunderstorms.minnesota.2.732463.html

Waterloo, IA Area Hammered

2008-05-25T20:20:00.017-04:00

This evening I have been tracking a long track, large, and destructive tornado that touched down near Parkersburg, IA, tracked just north of Waterloo, near or over Oelwien, Dunkertown, Cedar Falls, Fairbank, near or over Strawberry Point, near or over Hazeltown, near or over New Hartford, near or over Manchester, and now as of this writing Dyrsville has just got hammered, and now the possible tornado is coming close to Debuque, IA. (Pardon any misspellings of city names) There have been other tornadoes times near the main tornado, and other smaller communities not mentioned above have been impacted. There has been heavy damage reported all along the path of this storm, with the heaviest damage reported in Parkersburg, IA where "you can't tell that homes were ever there" in parts of the town. As of around 8:30PM there have been a lot of injury reports and so far one un-confirmed fatality. I will update this later.

Evening Severe Discussion

2008-05-25T18:30:00.003-04:00

HIGH TORNADO THREAT TO PERSIST THIS EVENING IN EASTERN IOWA, EASTERN MINASOTA, WESTERN WISCONSON, AND WESTERN ILINOIS. As was feared earlier today, storms have fired in Iowa and Minnasota this afternoon. So far they have only been isolated super cells, but some major damage reports have come out of them. More storms are expected to develop in this area this evening, as the stronger streak of wind shear continues to affect that area. Tornadoes, hail, and damaging straight line winds will continue to be possible through 3z in eastern MN, eastern IA, and getting into western WI and IL. Later this evening, this activity will likely organize into a MCS, or complex of storms with a continued damaging wind threat through the night as they blast east through Wisconson and northern Illinois through late this evening. I will post a forecast for areas farther SW later, but right now I am paying close attention to a tornado in NE Iowa which has and still is doing heavy damage.

An Overview of all the Watches

2008-05-25T17:03:00.002-04:00

A whole line of watches from TX to MN. The ones in MN and IA are Particularly Dangerous Situations (PDS) I will post a discussion soon.

Wow This is Going to be a BAD Evening...

2008-05-25T16:58:00.002-04:00

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (50%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (60%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (50%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)
Another PDS tornado watch has been issued, this time it is for Iowa. As I said earlier Iowa and MN are going to see the worst severe weather this evening.

PDS Issued For MN/Northern IA

2008-05-25T15:44:00.004-04:00

As I said about an hour ago this area looks to get hit hard this afternoon/evening. Here are the probablities for this watch:
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (50%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (60%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (50%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

Severe Weather Not Bad Now...But More Coming Later

2008-05-25T14:45:00.003-04:00

Only two watches now and only a handful of warnings scattered across the severe risk areas at this time. However, the sun is out and is destabilizing the atmosphere in the threat areas at this time, and it is only a matter of time before storms start exploding from Wisconsin to Minnesota down to Texas to Arkansas. There are two tornado watches as of 2:45 EDT. One along the dry line for far western KS, OK and TX. Instability continues to build and there is a bit of a jet streak moving across that area, so storms will continue to pop in that watch through the afternoon and evening with a tornado, high wind, and hail threat. For the other watch there is some convergence in that area adding lift. That lifting mechanism (MCV) will only cause storms to fire faster the rest of the afternoon/evening, as it is very unstable in that area. The MCV could enhance the tornado threat in that area. So, I believe that area will see high wind/hail threats with the threat of a few tornadoes also. There is another area that will likely be put under a tornado watch by 3 or 4PM EDT. From Iowa into Minnesota. There is strong wind shear in that area, and instability is growing. It appears that as of 2:45PM EDT storms are getting ready to fire in western MN. With all the wind shear, any storms are going to quickly become severe, with hail, high winds, and tornadoes all being distinct threats. If I had to bet money I would say most of the tornadoes will come out of this region. Elsewhere along the front, Kansas, there is a severe threat because instability is extreme. However, wind shear is not that high. So for Kansas I think storms will develop with hail and high winds being the biggest threats, with isolated tornadoes being possible. Later this evening the whole package will shift east some. The biggest severe threat will be from eastern MN/NE IA/NW IL where the strongest shear will be. Tornadoes and strong winds will be the biggest threats here. It looks like this activity may organize into a MCS later tonight in WI/northern IL and blast east. The dry line in Texas/OK/KS will move east a little, but not too much. The severe threat there will continue through the evening but slowly diminish as the sun goes down in that area. The activity along the rest of the cold front in KS will shift east into MO, with a continues high wind/hail threat along with maybe an isolated tornado. The MCV will continue to bring a severe threat for southern MO/NW AR/eastern OK the rest of this afternoon. This feature will likely become less defined this evening. I will have another update in a few hours to discuss the severe threat.

Warm Up Still Coming!

2008-05-24T22:24:00.005-04:00

A ridge of high pressure will slide east and bring warmth with it. It will only be warm for a couple of days, as a cold front will come sliding south Monday-Wednesday. Here are the forecast highs for this warm up.

Sunday-Sunday Night Severe Weather

2008-05-24T18:27:00.005-04:00

Another active severe day tomorrow. Here is what I expect to happen:

-Setup: A low pressure system will be tracking across the US/Canadian border, trailing a cold front south through much of the central US. Warm, humid air will be building ahead of the cold front, with cooler drier air coming in behind it.

-Severe Ingredients: Dew points will reach into the 60s, as far north as MN, and will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s from IL/IA points south. CAPEs will be above 2500 into MN/WI, and will reach 4000+ in western IL, IA, and northern MO. LIs will also be anywhere from -7 to -11 in the warm sector from MN/WI down to near the Gulf Coast. These are all very good for severe WX. But, there will be a couple of limiting factors: A cap, especially farther south of the moderate risk, and little wind shear south of the moderate risk. This will keep things from getting out of control south of the moderate risk zone, but in the moderate risk the cap will be weaker and wind shear will be much higher so organized severe weather is expected in the moderate risk area.

-Forecast: Not too much convection is expected be ongoing tomorrow morning in the risk areas, maybe some weak convection along the cold front. However, tomorrow afternoon as further destabilization occurs in the warm sector, storms will start firing along and ahead of the cold front. With the high instability, severe weather is possible anywhere in the warm sector, especially near the cold front. The main modes of severe will be large hail and damaging winds. However, near in in the moderate risk, wind shear will be higher, so storms will be more organized and the tornado threat will be higher than elsewhere in the warm sector. In the moderate risk area the storms may organize into organized complex(s) or storms, or an MCS tomorrow evening which will rapidly track east tomorrow night. Again, south of the moderate risk just scattered strong to severe storms and nothing too organized.

NOTE: I really haven't been able to cover severe weather over the past few days due to being very busy, but hopefully will be able to cover it slightly better over the next couple of days.

Sunday Quickcast

2008-05-24T18:04:00.002-04:00

More severe weather will slowly spead east, as the east warms and the west slowly cools. The east will be mainly dry, the west will see some scattered showers, and the central US will see storms, some of which will be severe. A more detailed severe outlook is being made now.

HYPE: Tropical Storm This Week? Seems Possible!

2008-05-24T14:19:00.001-04:00

Here is my early discussion on this possible tropical system:The setup is one favorable for Tropical cyclone in the western Carribean or the East Pac. There will be a huge ridge of high pressure in the northern Atlantic, which will act to keep the westerlies, (which prevent tropical development) to the north of the possible storm. The steering currents around the high would cause anything that developes in the region in question to move towards the NNW-NNE (northerly dirrection). Also, water temps in that region appear to be warm enough for possible development. Now, are the models crazy in spinning up a low down there out of no where? Probably not. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will be running through that area, which often brings convection and lower pressures. And, it is not unusual to get little spin ups along that, especially as we get into Monsoon season, which is when there is a change in the prevailing winds. These spin ups can develop into a tropical system either in the Atlantic or East Pac, so what the models are saying is not unreasonable. Now, if this storm develops, where will it develop, and how strong will it get? At this point in time there is equal opertunity for this to develop in the Atlantic or East Pacific. We will just have to see. And, if this low pressure does indeed develop like the models show, there is nothing to stop it from at least developing into an organized tropical low, if not a depression or weak storm. Early indications are wind shear over the possible storm will not be extreme, as the westerlies will remain well north of the system. Water temps also will be warm enough. But, the sub tropical jet stream (it is weak, but still a factor) could cause enough wind shear to preven this system from getting very strong. Also, potential land interactions will also likely prevent this system from getting too strong. And down the road, once this strom gets north of about 35-40 degrees latitude, it will run into the westerlies and become extratropical if it isn't obsorbed by another system.

Summary: A low pressure will likely spin up in the western Carribean of East Pac later this week. Conditions may be favorable for this system to develop into a weak tropical system, that will move off towards the north.

Saturday Quickcast

2008-05-23T23:23:00.002-04:00

The only real area of active weather will be in the central Planes, northern Planes, and NErn Rockies, and Florida. The showers in New England will be limited, and the showers in the west will also be limited but they will be scattered about.

TGIF! Quickcast:

2008-05-22T22:06:00.003-04:00

Friday a ridge will continue to slide into the east bringing some drier, warmer weather (finally) and a trough will bring cool and damp weather in the western and central US. In the central US, the same storm that brought a severe outbreak today will bring more severe weather tomorrow. I really don't have time to make a severe weather outlook but you can always view the SPC's outlook here.

HIGH RISK Issued by SPC for Today's/Tonight's Outbreak

2008-05-22T20:09:00.003-04:00

I did not get a chance to cover this outbreak nearly as well as I would have liked, as I was away from my computer from 6AM to 8PM, but when I walked in was not surprised that several super cell storms had developed over the front range of the Rockies and parts of the Planes, with already a lot of tornado reports and more storms forming. Please, if you are in the risk zones I or the SPC or any of your local news stations have specified for today/tonight, please keep your eye on the sky because this severe outbreak will continue through this evening. I have added a warning box to the upper left for all active severe or tornado warnings. Also feel free to visit my other weather website that me and another forecaster update at: http://weather-live.piczo.com/?cr=2

Extended Range Severe

2008-05-21T21:10:00.004-04:00

I do not usually do this but this evening I will issue preliminary severe WX outlook maps for Friday and Saturday. There will be one long lasting outbreak that has already started today and will last through next Tuesday, effecting areas from the Rockies to the east coast. I will have more detailed maps for each day as we go on through this outbreak.

Thursday Quickcast...We're Getting Closer!

2008-05-21T20:52:00.002-04:00

A trough will remain in the east, keeping things well below normal, with maybe even a little snow in the higher elevations downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The ridge will be continuing to move east, drying out the upper MW, upper GLs, and the SE and also starting to bring some mild air northward a little bit into the MW/SE. A trough will continue to push into the central US, bring a rain and severe threat. South and central TX will remain hot. The NW will still have the same trough in place for a couple more days, so things there will remain cool and a bit damp.

Thursday/Thursday Night Severe

2008-05-21T20:03:00.002-04:00

Disscussion: For this map did not take any gambles, took what the models and SPC said and went with it since everything the models are showing look pretty straight foreward and in agreement with the SPC, so my outlook is close to the SPC outlook...A cold front will be pushing ENE into TX, OK, KS, and Nebraska. This, along with high CAPEs, dew points, and LIs should get activity going along the cold front tomorrow afternoon. This could get severe with hail and high winds. Tomorrow evening, the jet stream looks to stregnthen across the region in question, and this will enhance the damaing wind and tornado threat. The area where the moderate risk has been painted in is where I believe that the stongest wind shear and instability will best coincide. This area will probably see scattered strong to severe storms starting late tomorrow afternoon, with all modes of severe weather possible.

Early Look at Memorial Day Weekend

2008-05-20T22:21:00.002-04:00

A long weekend awaits while we struggle through another long workweek. Yes, memorial day is already closing in, a day that signifies the un-official start to summer and a day to remember those who fell serving our great nation. So, what will the weather be like for all those barbecues, beaches, pools, and other outdoor activities that will be taking place during this 3 day weekend? Well, the ridge of high pressure that has been bringing a dry heat to the west over the last few days will continue to slide east, and should keep the eastern third of the country dry and will bring moderating temps. A trough will be digging into the west to start this weekend, but it will slide east into the central US, continuing the warmth and humidity in the Planes but also bringing a growing rain threat to the central US, which will start to slowly spread towards the east on Monday. In the west, the trough will exit by Monday, but on Saturday and Sunday some cool and possibly showery conditions will persist in the west, especially in the Rocky Mountains. By Monday things should dry out pretty nicely in the west and temps will return to near normal. Many more details coming up this week for the holiday weekend.

Tuesday Quickcast...1 Down, 4 to Go!

2008-05-19T20:04:00.003-04:00

The ridge that has brought heat to the west over the last few days will start slowly moving east towards the central US as a tough digging off the west coast forces it east. This will bring the sunny skies and warm weather east for tomorrow, and areas in SE TX and into the four corners will get hot! A area of low pressure will slide through the Mid Atlantic bringing periods of rain, but elsewhere in the east the cold air will take a break for a day, and with any luck most of the eastern US could see some peaks of sun (outside of the Mid Atlantic) and near normal temps (finally).

Monday :( Quickcast

2008-05-18T21:08:00.002-04:00

As you can see a ridge will persist in the SW, causing more dry heat, while a trough still keeps the east cold and damp. In the upper Great Lakes frosts and freezes will be a concern tomorrow morning, and in parts of New England and downwind of the lower Great Lakes, some snow flurries mixed into some rain showers will be a concern. Accumulations will be very light and at higher elevations if they do occur.

Cold Air Aloft Brings Severe Weather and Snow

2008-05-18T11:48:00.004-04:00

A busy day today as very cool air moves in place, causing severe storms today and snow tonight. What is causing this unsettled weather is a series of short waves that will be rotating through the NE/GLs. Today these shortwaves will cause showers/storms to fire, and with VERY cold air aloft will cause any showers/storms to bring the threat of hail/high winds. Late tonight, as a shortwave comes through the lower Great Lakes, it will be cold enough that some of the light precip caused by that shortwave could be in the form of snow. Any accums would be very light.

PS: Sorry about not being able to post much the last couple days, but I should now be back to a more regular posting schedule.

PSS: A showers that only showed up as about 35DBZ on radar just gave me a few minutes of pea sized hail here just outside of Cleveland.

But First, We Have a Huge Cooldown to Deal With!

2008-05-16T23:22:00.002-04:00

A huge trough is expected to really dig into the east over the next few days. This, will bring the east more unseasonably cool air and damp weather in the East starting Sunday and lasting most of this coming work week. For a lot of areas in the GLs and the NE could be stuck in the 40s/50s for highs Sunday-Thursday, with frosts/freezes in some areas at night. Friday, warm air will start surging into the southern GLs/southern Mid Atlantic, but it will take until Sunday for the warm air to completely move into northern New England. And, not only will these areas have several days of very chilly temps, the models raise the question: Will it snow Monday morning downwind of Lakes Erie/Ontario? Possibly. Surface temps will dip into the upper 30s and 850MB temps will range from -1 to -5, so maybe some wet flakes will mix in...So, before we get a brief preview of summer next weekend, we have to get a harsh reminder that it is still spring.

Warm Up Coming! 200 Posts!

2008-05-16T23:13:00.002-04:00

A trough has been persistent in the east, with a ridge dominating the west, leading to rainy and cool weather in the east and dry and hot weather in the west. How would you like to see that pattern switch? For Memorial Day Weekend? Well, early indications on the GFS ensemble and EURO look like a ridge may build in the central US with a trough in the west. If this verifies, the eastern half of the country (may take a little longer in the eastern NE) sees some warm and drier weather for the holiday, and the weekend before it. Stay tuned because this is what we have been waiting for.

Saturday Quickcast: Finally!

2008-05-16T20:05:00.004-04:00

The weekend is finally here. And pretty quiet weather will dominate most of the country. The exception will be the Northeast and Great Lakes where several troughs will rotate around an area of low pressure south of Hudson Bay. This will keep the threat of rain for the whole northeast through the weekend, with some cooler weather spilling SE, especially by Sunday. In the west things remain HOT!

TGIF! Quickcast:

2008-05-15T20:36:00.002-04:00

Basically cool and rainy in the east, hot and dry in the west tomorrow. For more detail, the Quickcast map has been posted above!

NE Rainfall Map:

2008-05-15T19:35:00.002-04:00

This is my rainfall map for 7pm Thursday through Saturday AM. There is just a ton of dry air to the north. The block is weakening some but with the dry air in place the block should be able to keep the storm to the south, so as I said yesterday the NAM and EURO look reasonable, so those models and the current radar are what I based my rain map off of. The only area that could see over an inch is where the rain could become a little convective tomorrow afternoon/evening. Otherwise this storm is quick moving and not that rich with moisture so one inch amounts elsewhere will be hard to come by.

Thursday/Thursday Night Severe

2008-05-14T21:36:00.002-04:00

Pretty much in line with the SPC, as this isn't a really tough forecast. A cold front will be pushing south, with a low pressure riding along the northern portion of it. There will be a ton of moisture pooled in the south, with some day time heating, and a piece of jet stream energy moving through. This will get storms going, some possibly severe. Hail and high winds appear to be the highest threats with maybe some isolated tornadoes. Not a great severe set up overall as instability will be lacking some, and there will only be some shear in place, but still some severe storms tomorrow afternoon/night in the SE.

Thursday Quickcast

2008-05-14T20:27:00.003-04:00

Here is Thursday's quickcast, for an accurate, easy to read forecast for every location in the nation.

Wednesday Severe Map Verification

2008-05-14T17:53:00.005-04:00

Tuesday evening I issued a bit of a bold severe weather outlook. How did it verify? Well, there was a large bust area, due to cloud cover. However, most other forecasts also had that area in a moderate risk, including the SPC. The part I gambled on was extending the risk zones into central and northern IL. However, that area actually had the highest concentration of severe reports, so I say that part of the forecast verified. Farther south in OK/TX the forecast was OK, so in general my overall grade for this forecast is a B-...not bad but it could have been better...

Wednesday/Wednesday Severe Discussion:

2008-05-13T22:03:00.002-04:00

Tomorrow a low pressure will be tracking across the deep south, and there will be a few focal points for severe weather with this:
TX Dryline:
-Dew points in the 60s/low 70s, CAPEs of over 2500, and LIs of -6 to -10 will all contribute to a Texas severe threat tomorrow. Normally, this may constitute a moderate risk, but there will really be a lack of low level jet stream energy (wind shear) and there may be a cap in place to limit the severe weather. So, for now only a slight risk. However, tomorrow evening when some isolated to scattered storms develop, some could be highly severe, so even though this is a slight risk all modes of severe weather, some of it significant will likely occur along a dry line in TX tomorrow evening. Warm front advancing NE (rest of the slight risk, it could move through a lot of states):
-Dew points will be rising into the high 60s/low 70s south of the warm front, and there will be CAPEs of into the 1000-2000 range throughout the night along and just south of the warm front, LIs of -4 to -8 along and south of the warm front, and some shear will combine to create a ongoing severe threat along the warm front starting late tomorrow across AR/LA and advancing ENE throughout tomorrow night. It appears that hail will be the biggest threat, but with the added shear I cannot rule out some tornadoes and straight line wind damage with the warm front convection tomorrow/tomorrow night.

Wednesday Quickcast

2008-05-13T21:14:00.003-04:00

The Wednesday Quickcast forecast map. I will post a severe weather map soon, as some severe weather is expected, and post a forecast verification map for yesterday's map soon.