New Snow Map

Reassesed and expanded mix area farther south.

Ohio Weather

Not a bad day at all across Ohio, and actually, some sun! That sun will be going away however. Tomorrow we'll see some light rain (snow in the north) that will probably add up to less that .1" liquid (1" snow) but it will make things quite dreary, with highs only around 40. Friday things get more interesting, as an arctic front approaches. Expect scattered snow showers as that goes by late Friday night. Saturday and Sunday will be cold. Temperatures on Saturday will be steady in the 19-24 degree range, Saturday Night temperatures will be in the -2-8+ degree range, and Sunday temperature will in the 10-20 degree range. (across the whole state) There will also be some lake effect, possibly adding up to over a foot in the Snow Belt by Sunday evening. Forecast Summary: Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Chilly. Low 22-28. Thursday: Light rain/snow mix. High 37-42.

Two Storms

There will be two storms affecting areas east of the Rockies Thursday. Neither will be very strong, but will produce large areas of light to moderate snow. One storm will wide up the east coast. This storm could bring some ice to as far south as the mountains in north Georgia and South Carolina and as far north as southern New England. It will also spread snow to New England with amounts of over 6" possible. Big Cities...No dought here all rain for you guys.
The other storm will affect the Midwest. It will being a swath of 3-6" of snow from northwestern Missouri through Michigan and into Canada. Locally over 6" is possible in the UP of Michigan. The Midwestern storm will drag a cold front through which may bring us a little rain/snow tomorrow.

Ohio Weather

Not a bad day for most of Ohio. However, the Snow Belt (which is still under a snow advisory until 9PM tonight) did see steady snow all day and as of 340 has picked up 2-4", with another 1" possible this evening. Tomorrow will not be a bad day, with some sun and temps in the middle to upper 30s in the north, and maybe near 40 south. Late Thursday a cold front comes through. Looks like snow (maybe some rain mixed in) in the north, especially NE and NW Ohio, and probably all rain in southern Ohio. Friday will be colder, but nothing too bad with just a few snow showers. However Friday Night, the arctic front comes through. This weekend will be COLD! Saturday most of the state will hover in the 19-25 degree range. Saturday Night there will be a large spread in overnight lows...0-10 (very cold no matter what!) and Sunday the highs across Ohio will be in the 12-20 degree range. On top of this the lake effect snow machine could be cranking out a lot of snow. It looks more like a westerly wind than northerly wind so right now it looks like the primary Snow Belt east of Cleveland will see the most snow, but the whole state could see at least a few flurries. Monday next week will moderate a bit but by next Tuesday another cold shot may be coming in! A note: Models are a mess on the possible east coast storm for Thursday Night/Friday, but I will be making a snow map on it tomorrow so check back!

Extended Forecast for Cleveland and Surrounding Areas

More For the East Coast?

My first guess on east coast storm track and snow area for Friday. I think this storm is farther west than the last one and any snow is well east of cities and in mountains. Notice: coldest air of the season will be coming down with this storm!

Ohio Weather

Not a bad day across Ohio today. Temperatures generally between 30 and 35 with light snow showers across the state. I think tonight and tomorrow anyone could see at least a dusting of snow, with the highest amounts across northeastern Ohio, where a snow advisory (for Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula counties) is in effect until 4PM Tuesday afternoon. Up to 3" tonight and up to 3" tomorrow for those areas. The end of this week and weekend will be COLD. Highs may struggle to hit 20 in the north and 25 in the south. Overnight lows Sunday morning could be bellow 0 in some areas in central Ohio. Lake-effect could also be significant late Friday through Sunday, so Snow Belt get ready. If significant lake-effect does occur I will post a snow map for the Snow Belt. Forecast: Tonight: Snow showers, mainly light, especially northeast. Trace-3" of snow. Low 23-28. Tuesday: Snow showers, mainly light, especially northeast. Trace-3" of snow. High 33-39. Another entry tomorrow by 4PM enjoy the snow where you have it!

Snowfall after 10PM

Due to the lack of cold I think this storm will produce the most snow from north central New Jersey through New England. I still see those areas seeing locally over 10". The area of precipitation is very small but very intense. I took a little portion of my full snow map, the area that still has snow to come, made a couple of minor tweaks (just to the 10-14" area and 1-3" areas) due to current trends on radar. I also reduced snow totals where some snow has already fallen, so this is the additional snowfall after 10PM tonight.

Ohio Weather

Expect a rainy afternoon across Ohio today. A lot of light showers moving across the area. With temps in the upper 30s a little snow may mix in to start but don't count on any accumulations today. Tonight however we will change to mainly snow. The southern portion of the state will likily see a light dusting of snow, but the northeastern Snow Belt could see up to 3" tonight. Expect weather conditions to remain snow tomorrow especially in the Snow Belt. Highs today will be in the 40-45 degree range. Lows tonight will be in the 29-35 degree range. Highs tomorrow will be in the 33-38 degree range. Big storm possible and lots of cold likely by Friday so stay tuned!

Final East Coast Snow Map

Here is my final east coast snow map. The only major change I made was taking the heaviest axis of snow out of New Jersey. The models are not strengthening the low as quickly today which will cut down on snow a bit. Boston I am going with a solid 7-11" for you!

Coming Soon...

Tomorrow I will again post about the Ohio forecast, and the storm along the east coast starting tomorrow night, with my final forecast and maybe a radar analysis tomorrow evening. Depending on how the models look (0z GFS looked impressive) I may post on the storm on the 18th.

Specific Forecasts: Bergen County, NJ

This post directly addresses northern New Jersey, mainly Bergen County. I think the heaviest snow will fall at the highest elevations. Now, several people think I should extend the 12"+ area on my map into Bergen county. I think differently. Most of the county is at a very low elevation, so sleet mixing in due to proximity to the ocean is likely. This will significantly cut down on snow accumulations quite a bit. So, I will put a closeup of my snow map over an elevation map to show what I mean. Here is my snow map for all of northeast.
Here is my closeup of northern New Jersey. So, right now my guess for Bergen county is 6-10". maybe 11" the extreme NE corner of the county.

0z's and my Snowmap

The 0z NAM and GFS support my snow map beautifully, so I will stick with it tonight. Tomorrow probably after the 12z's run. Tomorrow evening I will probably analyze a couple of radar images and RUC model runs to give a short term forecast for the storm.

Saturday evening thoughts and snow map

My latest snow map. I shifted the 12"+ area a little farther southwest, but still is confined to mountainous areas. I cleaned up the 3-6" area a bit, trimming it back in PA and WV. I think the max out of this storm is 15" somewhere in northern New Jersey. I also showed some of the heavier snow in the lakes better. Downwind of some of the lakes up to a foot is possible! Big cities: Boston will get 5-8", with some sleet mixed in. NYC will see 3-5" with sleet and rain especially to start. Scranton will get 3-5" at most. Albany may see 4-7" of snow. Philly will sea 4-6" of snow, with some rain possible to start. DC will get 1-3" with a lot of rain until the very end of the storm. Erie PA could see up to a foot of snow due to a slow moving low and lake Erie. Another quick update after the 0z's run.

Mostly Sunny!!!

This afternoon's visible satellite from accuweather.com shows a lot of sun! What a change for the better! However, tomorrow will be cloudy with rain (maybe mixed with snow).

Newest Snow Map

Here is my latest snow map. I still think the heaviest snow will be in the mountains in New Jersey towards Massachusetts due to the mountains helping to ring out moisture from the storm. I think as the storm bombs out off the New Jersey shore those mountains could see 2" of snow an hour easily for a few hours. Boston, I did put you in the 6-12" range. It looks like you will see mainly snow with a little of sleet mixed in. New York City, I am still not convinced. I am thinking 3-5" because there will be some rain/sleet mixed in especially to start, and I still think the models may still bring the storm slightly more westward. Philly, you will see mainly snow as you are well inland. Expect 4-7" as the storm will be at its worst after it passes you. Baltimore and Washington DC temps will be near 40 at least to start the storm so only 1-3" for you guys. Another Note: The Great Lakes will be affected by another low pressure that could dump widespread 3-6" amounts over a couple of days, maybe 4-8" in the Snow Belts downwind of the lakes. Another update after all the 18z's run. Questions? jim0992@sbcglobal.net

Ohio weather...

Today across Ohio it will be very quite. A lot of clouds with highs in the lower 40s north and middle to upper 40s south. There may be a few peaks of sun by afternoon! Sunday, a weak clipper will move slowly through the area, producing a light rain/snow mix. Tomorrow night and Monday, scattered snow showers will continue, amounting to up to 1". However, by late Monday some lake-effect could develop dumping possibly over 6" in the favored lake-effect areas by late Tuesday. By late Wednesday a strong front coming in from the north and a developing low in the Gulf of Mexico will likely cause a very large storm to develop. However, it looks like this one may go towards the east coast, but we will be left with the coldest air so far this winter in place and lake-effect zones keep monitoring this cause you may get dumped on late Thursday and Friday. By next Saturday another storm will be impacting the eastern portion of the country, but its track and strength are very uncertain at this point.

East Coast Storm (EARLY in the morning)

Latest snow map. Just a few adjustments. Trimmed back a bit on the 12-18" range. The 0z NAM is actually very similar to what I am thinking. The heaviest snow will be from NW Jersey towards north central Mass. due to the storm bombing out just off shore and the moist flow off the ocean hitting the mountains enhancing snowfall. I chatted a little with someone who lives in the mountains in norther New Jersey who said they usually don't pick up that much snow in that situation, so tomorrow when some of the high resolution short range models come out I may adjust the heavier axis of snow...but for Tonight I'm sticking to my guns! On the mixing scenario...the 0z NAM indicated that NYC and Boston would see rain at least to start and then change to a short (less than 6 hour) period of moderate/heavy snow for both cities. Just outside both those cities, especially above 600-700 feet it will be mostly snow. Another note: with temperatures so marginal for snow, the snow will be wet and heavy, which could bring down some trees and power lines. Also, the Great Lakes and northwestern Appellations will be affected by a weak clipper slowly moving through which will put down a general coating to 2". However, late Monday into Tuesday we will have a bit of a lake effect situation, so favored lake affect zones could see over 6" out of this whole thing. Tomorrow: Long range...specific Ohio forecasts. (I am OHweather!)

Coming soon...

Tomorrow morning (by noon) I update the snow map and actually talk about Ohio weather!