HERE IT COMES!

Here is the final snow map. Heavy snow from the Mississippi and Ohio valleys up through New England. A lot of ice also from northeastern Ohio into northern and central PA. I am already getting reports the heaviest snow area is larger and is actually spreading heavier snow to the Chicago area than what I indicated.

This Is Not Good (if you want snow)

0z NAM. I am noy happy right now...

Winter Storm Watch

A winter storm watch is in effect for the northwestern 2/3 of Ohio because of the low pressure that will be effecting us Thursday night and Friday. The heaviest snow will be in northwest Ohio where up to 10" may fall. Much of Ohio should experience at least a brief period of ice, if not an extended period of snow/ice changing to rain by Friday morning.

Late Evening Update

The northern part of the squall line (which is now in Ohio) has weakened but still is producing isolated severe winds (58MPH) as there are severe thunderstorm warnings with it. The rest of the line is still pretty much intact but slowly weakening, although for the next couple hours it will remain severe. The severe thunderstorm watch has been extended until 1AM, which I think is a good move because the line is waining but any thunderstorm can mix down the 60+knot winds at 2000+ feet aloft. Also, I updated to lower my morning temperatures and wind chills tomorrow morning. Western Half: Low temps of 5-10. Wind chills of -15 to -6. Eastern Half: Low temps of 8-18. Wind chills of -12 to 0. I know earlier I was a few degrees higher with my lows, but the front has picked up a bit of steam and the colder air behind it is a little colder than I thought. Hopefully the NWS puts up wind chill advisories because these types of wind chills can be dangerous in as little as 15 minutes to exposed skin. Forecast Details: Tonight: Thunderstorms early, possibly severe, quickly changing to snow, accumulating 1-2" mainly north. Any snow will blow and drift due to wind gusts as high as 55MPH after the front comes through, and as high as 65MPH in any thunderstorms. Power outages and minor wind damage possible. Low 5-18. Wind chills as cold as -15 mainly west. Wednesday: Flurries ending in the Snow Belt. Still windy especially early. Wind chills as cold as -18 early mainly west. Becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. High 14-22. Wednesday Night: Mainly clear. Very cold. Low -2 to 8. Thursday: Increasing clouds but staying dry. A little milder. High 27-34.

9PM Severe Weather Update

The squall line has held together pretty well considering the sun has gone down and it is January, however there are still plenty of severe thunderstorm warnings along it. The tornado threat is now very low...I will say there is only a 2% chance of a tornado report in Ohio tonight, but the strait line winds will still do plenty of damage. The northern end of the squall line has weakened a bit but still could re-intensify and either way you will see wind gusts over 50MPH. The snow is moving a little farther north, so only the northern half of the state will see accumulating snow where 1-2" will fall.

Thursday Night/Friday Storm

Have been very busy this evening with severe weather possibility (and oh, it is 45-50 degrees so I had to get outside for a bit) and speaking of severe weather, much of Ohio has been put under a severe thunderstorm watch until 12 tonight. I finally got around to making a snow/ice map for the Thursday/Friday system, which the models are in great agreement on. Looks like a lot of ice is possible. Now, for extreme NE Ohio, it shows a mix but I am concerned that mixing will be limited and snow accumulations will be higher there, but that is a small detail we will work out over time. New post on Severe weather by 9PM.

Severe Weather Update

As promised this evening is VERY busy across the midwest. As you can see, temperatures are dropping 20-40 degrees with a cold front, which is causing high winds, severe weather, and even some snow. The squall line of thunderstorms is now working across Indiana, with severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings all along it. Expect those severe thunderstorm warnings to continue to be issued along the line as it moves east, but for now it looks like any tornado threat should be low and confined to southwest Ohio, but again that could change. The winds are really starting to pick up across the area. They are still only gusting to 30-35MPH, but once that front is on top of you those gusts could double, especially in thunderstorms. The winds will stay strong behind the front through tomorrow morning across Ohio. Expect tree/power line damage, and prepare for the chance of waking up with no power or heat as a lot of power outages will occur. The weather will go from severe thunderstorms to a windswept snow in about 45 minutes. The snow will accumulate 1-2" (maybe 3" in the Snow Belt) but will be very wind blown and will continue to blow around through the day Wednesday. Expect temperatures between 18-23 in southern Ohio to wake up and between 14-18 in northern Ohio. This will cause any standing water to freeze, so watch for slick spots especially on un-treated surfaces. This will also cause wind chills of -8 - 0 in northern Ohio and between -3 and 5 in southern Ohio tomorrow morning. So batten down the hatches tonight and then bundle up tomorrow!

A Lot to Talk About!

This will be a very active night across all of Ohio weather wise. Here is what we will be watching:
1. High wind gusts! A cold front will come crashing through this evening. With it winds will gust from 50-65MPM. Because of this the northwestern 1/2 of Ohio is under a high wind warning, and the rest of the state is under a wind advisory. Expect winds to steadily pick up this evening and start calming down tomorrow morning. Power outages are likely.
2. Severe Thunderstorms! The Storm Prediction Center has all of Ohio under a slight risk for severe storms tonight. The severe threat is mainly along the front, where a line of showers and thunderstorms already exist. Any thunderstorms will easily have the ability to allow the winds associated with a strong low level jet stream to mix down causing wind gusts easily to severe limits.
3. Large Temperature Drop! As the front comes through the temperatures will crash from the 40s to the 20s, and may even dip into the teens across the northern portions of Ohio. This could allow any water to "flash freeze" on surfaces, so untreated surfaces could be icy in the morning. The cold temperatures and strong winds will allow the wind chills to fall bellow 0 in most locations and along the lake shore as cold as -10, as the wind will be strongest there.
4. A Few Snow Showers...Any precipitation behind the front will turn into wind driven snow, which will not accumulate much but with the winds to blow it around it could make roads with the wind blowing across them to become slick. The Snow Belt has the best chance to pick up 1-2" but with the strong winds and ice on the lake the lake effect will be minimal.
5. Late Week Threat! I will have much more on that later, but all of the models are coming around to the idea of wintry precipitation over all of Ohio for at least a little bit Thursday night, with significant snow/ice over the northern portion on the state.
Here is a good regional radar.
Here are links to local radar for Ohio and surrounding areas:
Cleveland
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Detroit
Northern Indiana

GFS/DGEX

The latest DGEX/GFS. The DGEX is still farther southeast, weaker, and several hours slower than the GFS. It shows about 2-5" of all snow on Friday. The GFS is almost exactly the same as its last 8-10 runs. It shows between .5-.8"+ QPF of snow/ice before change to rain over northern Ohio on Friday morning. Again, the GFS has still been the most consistent so I will stick with it for now, but whatever model you look at it shows some sort of wintry precipitation on Friday.

Lake Erie Ice

Lake Erie has really started to acquire some lake ice over the last week or so, and since this morning we had several hours of clear skies the visible satellite could be used to determine the ice cover. The ice is starting to hamper lake effect a bit especially in the Ohio Snow Belt, as the shallower western basin as always is freezing first. Also, a note of caution: DO NOT TRY TO VENTURE ONTO THE ICE! IT MAY LOOK SOLID BUT IT IS NOT, IT HAS ONLY BEEN THERE FOR A WEEK AND A HALF AT MOST AND IT HASN'T BEEN COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE IT THICK ENOUGH FOR PEOPLE TO WALK ON IT! You can see that clearly because the ice north of Ashtabula was clinging to the lake shore but the warm south breezes we have experienced over the last couple of days was enough to push the ice out over the lake, and with a couple of warm, rainy, windy days this ice is going to become thinner and move around even more. Here is a good site to track the ice daily and see how thick it is. (Note how everything over lake Erie is classified as "Thin Lake Ice" so again do not try to go out on it)

Excitement Growing!

The chances of a significant winter storm across Ohio on Friday have increased! My snow map is based 70% on the model that has been very consistent the last couple of days, the GFS, and 30% is based on other models. The GFS, shows a low riding up through western Ohio, giving central Ohio almost .5" QPF of snow ice before a change to rain by Friday morning, and gives northern Ohio (northern 1/8th of the state, give or take) well over .75"QPF of snow and ice before a change to rain Friday morning, which would reek havoc on Friday mornings rush hour. The DGEX would also make Friday morning's rush hour interesting across much of Ohio. It shows all snow and about 2-5" of it depending on where you are for late Thursday night and Friday morning. This situation is now being monitored pretty well I would say by the NWS in Cleveland and the local stations (at least in Cleveland). I will post another update this evening.

Nowcasting with latest radar imagery!

Widespread reports of 6-8"+ snow already over Cape Cod and portions of southeastern Massachusetts. The area of heavy snow is pretty confined to a pretty small band that is mainly out over the Atlantic but is currently impacting Cape Cod. The band is currently shrinking and moving off to the southeast, and will drop 2-5" over Cape Cod and the islands tonight/tomorrow morning where it comes through. Here is a good radar loop of the storm.

DGEX, GFS

The 18z GFS and DGEX models. The DGEX is about 6 hours faster than the GFS with the storm, and shows rain to a period of snow fore Friday morning, adding up to 1-2". The GFS shows a bit of a ice to rain to snow situation, and if I had to pick one of the two I would pick the GFS because there will be a lot of cold air in place on Wednesday and into Thursday, which may not be able to be overtaken by warm air as the DGEX shows. I will have a more complete update by tomorrow afternoon.

Cape Cod Tonight

Cape Cod has been downgraded to a snow advisory, which I slightly disagree with, because they still will see some decent snow tonight as per the snow map posted above.

I Will Post GFS/DGEX Later...

The DGEX has ran, but is having problems, so I will try to post it later. I will post the GFS with it. Just to say, they both look a little cooler than there last few runs but still show a lot of rain.

Cleveland Extended Forecast

The Cleveland, Ohio extended forecast. I will post the GFS and DGEX for Friday's storm by 7:00PM.

Ohio Weather

Still some light flurries/freezing drizzle/fog across the northern portion of the area as of noon, so secondary streets could still remain slick through this afternoon. By later today tho, this light precip will end and the sun will shine at least a bit across all of Ohio. Tomorrow with the aid of a nice south wind temperatures will rebound well into the 40s, and across northern Ohio where there is anywhere from 2-12" of snow a lot of that will melt off under partly sunny skies. Late Tuesday a cold front approaches with the threat of rain and gusty winds by Tuesday afternoon, as temperatures out ahead of the front could push 50 across the southeastern portion on the state and will fall back to near or slightly bellow normal for Wednesday. As for the potential winter storm on Friday, the latest DGEX shows an all rain event. The GFS is a little colder and shows perhaps some ice/sleet to start on Friday then about a half inch of very cold rain. Again, this forecast for Friday could change so keep checking back for more details on if the models change or not. (BTW, the NWS in Cincinnati has a likely chance of snow changing to rain, and the NWS has a likely chance of snow/ice/rain mixed) Forecast Details: This Afternoon: Light wintry mix slowly ending. A few peaks of sun late especially western Ohio. High 31-38. Tonight: Partly cloudy. Cold. Patchy fog possible. Low 15-23. Wind chills colder than 10 Northeast. Monday: Partly sunny early becoming cloudier as the day goes on. A few showers possible west by evening. Breezy and mild. A lot of snow melt and some fog especially north and in the Snow Belt. High 40-47. Monday Night: Scattered showers, otherwise cloudy. Some fog possible in the Snow Belt. Mild. Low 33-37. Tuesday: Cloudy with an increasing threat for rain as the day goes on. Windy and mild. High 46-52. Tuesday Night: Rain before 2AM, with a rumble of thunder possible, then a slight chance of snow showers. Little or no accumulation, except for the Snow Belt where 1-3" could fall. Windy with gusts past 45MPH likely. Low 15-24. Wind chills could drop into the single digits. Another update after the 18z model runs.

Cape Cod Blizzard Final Maps

Those are my final predictions for the Cape Cod blizzard starting today. Looks like temps on Cape Cod and the Islands (Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket) will range from 33-36 while it is snowing, so it will be a very heavy, wet snow that sticks to everything and could easily take down trees and power lines with the help of 60+MPH wind gusts. On Nantucket the snow will start mixing with and changing to rain by 5AM tomorrow morning, and on the Cape it will start mixing with and changing over to rain by 9AM at the latest tomorrow morning. So, on the Cape and Islands travel will be terrible late today and tonight, and will start improving tomorrow morning.

East Coast and Friday Updates

First off, northern Ohio got a good 1-1.5" of snow this evening! Now, for Friday, the 0z GFS prints out about .7" of QPF for a lot of Ohio, but shows that except for extreme northwest Ohio mainly rain. Again, we'll see on that one. I posted a very close-up map of Cape Cod for tomorrow/Monday's snow storm. I think the highest amounts will be 9 or 10". One concern, if the storm tracks any further northwest than forecasted now Cape Cod and especially the islands see more rain and less snow, and areas a little further inland could share in the 6"+ snow. I posted a usually accurate RUC's snowfall total ending Monday morning, and it is actually farther inland with the snow, farther NW with the low, and shows more rain for Cape Cod and the islands. Right now I think this model is about 20-40 miles too far NW with the storm but it is still within the realm of possibilities it actually happens. One thing I do like is the snow totals of 6" to locally 8"+, because I think where ever the heaviest snow falls that is what it will amount to. I will have a more complete update by noon Sunday!

The Latest DGEX and Friday Storm

As I expected, the 18z DGEX was faster and farther west as was the GFS. It indicates mostly rain for the storm, and a lot of it. I just posted that temperature map because it paints a very rich meteorological picture. You have temperatures ahead of the system in the 40s/50s and temperatures behind the system bellow 0, which is why the DGEX shows such a strong storm. Again, no reason to write this one off yet we still could be seeing a major winter storm on Friday. I will continue to post model images as they come in...(All model images from NCEP/NOAA)

The Latest GFS is In!

The 18z GFS (NCEP/NOAA) has spoken and indicates more of a rain event for our area. However it is only one run of one model, so I still am paying attention to the models because we still could see significant wintry precipitation Friday! I will post the 18z DGEX when it comes in, but I have a feeling it will be very similar to the GFS because it just always seems to go like that...

Updated Snowmaps!

My updated snow maps. I don't expect to make any changes. Cape Cod and the Islands will see a blizzard, but NYC will at the most see around an inch of snow. The biggest change I MAY have to make is expanding my 1-3" zone just a little to the southwest, but not a whole lot. Just a note: The New England closeup is HUGE.

Ohio Weather

As expected most of Ohio saw a light dusting of snow last night, with the most being in the Snow Belt where some areas saw a little over an inch. As of 3:45PM most of the snow is done, except for you know where, the Snow Belt where some light snow showers are still falling. This evening, another batch of light snow will affect mainly the northern half of the area, with most areas seeing around a half an inch with some areas in the Snow Belt seeing up to 2" by morning. As mentioned in previous posts I am still watching the threat for significant wintry precipitation on Friday. Forecast Details: Tonight: Light snow, mainly north. Around 1" northeast Ohio, a dusting at most elsewhere, with no accumulation southern 1/3rd of the state. Low 21-27. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, but some sunshine will break through! Flurries possible in Northeast Ohio early. High 31-37. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a breeze picking up out of the south making wind chills fall bellow 10. Low 14-22. Monday: Partly sunny and WARMER! High 40-47, thanks to a strong southerly breeze!
NOTE: My next east coast snow map will be posted around 6:00PM, after the 18z GFS finishes running.
Models used for this post:
Same as yesterdays "Another Boring Couple of Days" post.

And Yet Another Computer Model Image!

The latest NAM on tomorrow's Cape Cod snow storm. I think Cape Cod and the islands will see a full blizzard tomorrow afternoon, with winds easily gusting past 60MPH. I think when everything is counted, Cape Cod will see 6-10", and even though the islands will start seeing the snow first they will also start mixing with rain first, so only a little more for them, 7-11". Boston will see 2-4", and NYC will still only see a dusting at best. I will post my next snow map after the GFS runs (by 6:00PM). That model image is from NCEP/NOAA.

DGEX on End of the Week Snow Threat

Those were both from the DGEX for Friday afternoon. The model never changes the precipitation to rain in the northern half of Ohio but changes everything to sleet and freezing rain for a time, after a few inches of snow. At this point am going to say that where this storm goes is anyone's guess at this point but based on today's models think the threat of significant wintry precipitation is still there for Friday here, and even in parts of the NE, so keep checking back here as I will continue to post model images and eventually forecasts as we head through this upcoming week. All the model images I have used in today's entries are from NCEP/NOAA.

End of Week Snowstorm?

Here is the latest GFS run, showing moderate snow over parts of Ohio, but rain for southeastern portions of the state...
I know yesterday, I kind of wrote off the snowstorm threat at the end of the week. I still dought we will see a ton of snow, but today's models do bring the storm closer to us. Another limiting factor could also be the chance of rain/ice mixing with the snow do to a lack of arctic air in place. I will post the DGEX's view on the storm in the next post...

Small Area of Heavy Snow

I am hoping I won't have to change this snow map a ton today...Not many people get heavy snow out of the winter storm that looks a lot like a subtropical storm. I am only concerned about heavy snow and very high winds for the immediate area surrounding Cape Cod and Cape Cod itself. My next snow map will hopefully be posted by 6:00PM today...

Another boring couple of days...

Not much weather to talk about over next couple of days. Late tonight and tomorrow will feature snow showers across the state, with locally up to 1.5" in the northern portions of the state. Areas on the east coast will be watching for a storm, but as of now is looks like the heaviest snow will be confined to areas around Cape Cod (see map above). Our weather pattern gets more interesting after Monday (which will feature temps in the 40's for the whole state Monday into Tuesday). Tuesday Night, a cold front will come through with rain and maybe a quick blast of snow. Rest of next week will be cold, but I don't see any major lake effect threats through next week. Next storm to watch around Friday, however it looks like we may get grazed by it if anything. That storm could be interesting for the east coast and New England. After next week, we will be in a stormy weather pattern so the threat is there for large scale storms (whether it's rain or snow) and maybe even some lake effect. Climatological midpoint of winter was Thursday! Forecast Details: Tonight: Snow showers developing. Expect a dusting of snow. Low 13-19. Saturday: Snow showers. Expect a dusting of snow. High 29-34. Saturday Night: Leftover flurries. Low 20-28. Sunday: Mostly cloudy. High 30-37.
NEW: Forecast models used to make this forecast:
GFS
NAM
NAM Quick-cast
DGEX

Ohio Weather

IT WAS COLD THIS WEEKEND! If you didn't need to be outside this weekend, consider yourself lucky! Temperatures struggled to reach highs of 8-16 on Sunday! There was a lot of lake effect, but it was very isolated. A lot of reports of 12"+ from the Snow Belt. The highest total from Ohio is 22" in Thompson (northeastern Geauga County). We saw snow over almost all of Ohio today, and most areas got an inch or so. It looks like the northeastern and north central portions of the state are going to get another coating to an inch this morning as the cold front comes through. Tomorrow and especially Thursday morning there will be some lake effect, but not a ton as the lake is starting to freeze over. Forecast details: Tonight: Snow, especially in the north, mainly before midnight. Lows 14-21. Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Snow flurries northeast. High 24-29. Wednesday Night: Snow showers, especially late. Accumulations of 1-4" (highest Northeast). Cold. Lows 14-22.

Midwest Snow

Some snow will fall over a lot of the midwest over the next couple of days. No one will get a ton, but almost the entire midwest will see at least a coating of snow. A little ice is possible to the south where warmer air aloft will be moving in. NOTE: this does not include the lake effect falling now.

Southeast

Snow map for additional snow fall after 2:30PM.

Southeastern Snow

The southeast is seeing an unusual blast of snow and cold. As of about 10AM this morning here is how much addtional snow I think will fall.

Ohio Weather

It is cold in Ohio today, and will be colder tomorrow. Some areas will be bellow 0 tonight and tommorow night, especially inland northern Ohio. Lake effect starting to ramp up out over lake, and lake effect snow warnings in effect for Lake, Geauga, and Ashtabula counties through tomorrow afternoon. I think a lot of areas will see in the 4-7" range of snow, and local areas will see locally a foot of snow.

Here are links to radars and satilite images:
Lake Effect not too impressive except for a couple spots. Southeast of Lake Erie, Northeast of Lake Ontario and east of Lake Huron currently. I trimmed back a little in the UP of Michigan, and made a couple of other tweaks to my map yesterday to come up with the Great Lakes Snow Map.
Here are links to all the Great Lake Radars:Cleveland Buffalo Mantaugua/Syracuse Fort Wayne Detroit Gaylord/Alpena UP of Michigan London, Ontario Ottawa, Ontario Sudbury, Ontario Montreal River, Ontario (near Sue Sainte Marie) Regional Radar (Accuweather) Regional Radar (NWS) Regional Radar II (NWS) Michigan Vis. Sattilite Michigan Inrared Sat. New York Vis. Sat. New York Infrared Sat. Snow Matrix (to report your snow amounts)

Snowy in the Northeast Tonight!

Snowfall after 4:15PM today. A lot more colder air involved than though yesterday. Widespread 4-7" amounts have been reported in the Appellations, and I think up to 10" locally in New England. Even DC and Baltimore saw 1-3" of snow. Expect the snow to be coming to an end there pretty soon, if it hasn't already turned to rain in those locations. NYC will even see a brief period of snow and sleet, adding up to .5-1" before changing to rain. Here is a good radar off of weather.com: http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/?from=wxcenter_maps
You can pan, zoom in, and do almost anything you want with it! If you do get snow feel free to leave a comment!