Weather Discussion Through Next Week

NOTE: SINCE BLOGGER SUCKS, THE IMAGES AREN'T SHOWING UP IN THE POST...SO YOU WILL HAVE TO CLICK ON LINKS...SORRY FOR THE INCONVINIENCE...(I removed the vulger language that once was here)...

Discussion Through Next Week

BEFORE READING: I WILL WARN YOU, THIS DISCUSSION IS VERY IN DEPTH AND MAY BE A LITTLE CONFUSING TO SOME, WHICH IS OK! IF SOMETHING CONFUSES YOU, READ MY NOTE AT THE END OF THE POST!

Large Scale Pattern:

Global Water Vapor With Stuff Drawn On It

Currently the water vapor is LIT UP with several key features that will determine the large scale pattern for this up coming week…lets look at them and see what they are expected to do:
-Upper low over eastern US. This will slowly start weakening and moving off to the NE over the next couple days as the S/W over the north central US picks it up. It will leave enough of a trough over the eastern US to allow the upper low and associated front to move through much of the Midwest/NE early next week, and really cool things off.
-The upper low to the SW of Alaska and over the Sea of Japan are going to be very important, as they are going to cause the two ridges over the Pacific to amplify. The one over the NW Pacific will continue to drift NE over the next couple days. It will take the northern branch with it, causing the ridge over the western Pacific to grow northward. The ridge building will cause the upper low to the NE of the ridge (SW of Alaska) to drift more to the south, causing a trough over the central Pacific. The upper low drifting south will amplify the ridge over the East Pac/western US, and it will be oriented more N-S. This will cause the northern Branch to blast into Canada moving SSW-NNE, so it will be tapping the Arctic air. The amplification of the ridge over the eastern Pac will coincide well with the AO and NAO going negative. This will cause the northern branch, which is moving well north into Canada and tapping arctic air to dive back to the south over the eastern US, causing a trough over the east.
-Described above is an amplified pattern…it will consist of a ridge over the western Pacific, trough over the central Pacific, ridge over east Pac and western US, a trough diving into eastern US, and the westerlies south over much of the Atlantic basin, which will impact tropical activity, which I will get to later.
-Now, this pattern will take a couple days to fully develop…but by Sunday night it should pretty much in place, and the upper low/cold front currently off the Pac NW coast will start moving through the northern US and bringing the coldest air mass of the season with it…
Here is what the set up will look like by Monday:

What the pattern will look like on Monday

Things will be starting to amplify more over North America. And, as you can see an upper low and trailing cold front will begin dropping down into the northern US, and will bring a pattern change. Now, you may be wondering: How come the S/W currently moving through the northern US isn’t going to cause a large trough in the east and cause a pattern shift?

500MB analysis for Friday evening at 9PM EDT

Well, currently the pattern is a little more zonal. So, the S/W is moving more W-E than anything. Also, the upper low over the SE US is currently amplifying the ridging over the western Atlantic/NE US, which is causing the jet to move north back into Canada. So, this S/W is just going to give the NE US a glancing blow.

As mentioned above, over the next couple days what will happen is the upper low over the east will weaken and move east some, causing the ridging over the Atlantic move more to the east. Also, the pattern over the Pacific will be amplifying. So, we will get the northern branch diving down towards the NE US a little bit, instead of being deflected more to the north, so the S/W will move farther south than the current one. Also, the S/W will be stronger than the one currently moving just north of the US…

Before we move any farther, lets time the front that the S/W will drag through early next week and discuss its impacts:
Timing the cool down:

Timing the front

Here is the timing of the front…here is what to expect with the frontal passage:
-Some clouds and showers. The front will be strong and will add lift, but there will be some ridging ahead of the front limiting moisture return.
-Some gusty winds. It is a strong front, so winds could gust as it comes through.
Here is what to expect after the front passes through:
-Temps 5-15 degrees below normal.
-Some frost in interior portions of the NE, the GLs, and Midwest.
-Partly cloudy skies. Cool air aloft will cause some instability but little moisture behind the front. Maybe some lake effect rain showers, but nothing extreme.

As we get towards Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper low that will drag the front through will likely run into the –NAO block, stall out, become negatively tilted, and strengthen into a large cut-off upper low over Hudson Bay. This will cause the trough over the east to really deepen, and will also cause weak S/Ws to rotate down through the GLs, which will bring continually cooler air and will cause an increase in lake effect rain, and maybe some mixed precip over the northern lakes. (we’ll cross that bridge when we get there). But, all you need to know is that if you live in the NE, expect cool and unsettled weather from when the front goes through Tuesday/Tuesday night into the weekend. But, by the week of the fifth the cut off over Hudson bay will finally start to shift east…as the pattern continues to change…let me briefly touch on what the pattern will do Tuesday-next weekend:

On Tuesday we will still have the same setup…ridge in western Pac, trough in the middle, ridge in the eastern Pac/western US, trough developing in the east, and some ridging over the Atlantic. But, now we need to think back to the huge upper low currently over the Sea of Japan. Currently it is amplifying the ridge over the western Pacific as it slowly moves around the ridge. By Monday and into Tuesday, that upper low will be working around the northern side of the ridge. As that happens, it will cause the ridge to flatten and spread east some. This will nudge the upper low/trough over the central Pacific east, which will shove the ridge over the western US east, and by the weekend will start pushing the trough over the east to the east. By the end of next weekend, the trough that originally will be in the central Pacific will be over the western US, and the ridge that will be building over the western US will start pushing east, although with a –NAO the trough over the east will be stubborn to get out, so the ridge will start getting flattened by the trough over the east, which will slowly start moving out next weekend…this is where I will leave off…the end of next weekend…and pick it up from there tomorrow…

Now, earlier I mentioned I would get to tropics…right now, there is Kyle. Kyle is a strong TS, and may become a minimal hurricane. It may clip SE New England and will be going into Nova Scotia. There is also a tropical wave in the Atlantic, which the NHC is giving a 20%> of developing over the next 48 hours…currently it is lacking heavy thunderstorm activity, and is being impacted by shear, that won’t be going away for a few more days. So, this system likely won’t become anything significant over the weekend. If it does happen to develop, currently the ridge over the Atlantic is strong, so the wave should continue moving to the WNW for the next few days. But, later next week as the trough digs over the eastern US, if there is anything left of this system the trough should wisp it out to sea…

NOW, I UNDERSTAND HOW SOME OF YOU MAY BE A BIT CONFUSED, AS THERE WAS A LOT OF STUFF IN THAT POST AND SOME OF IT WAS A LITTLE COMPLICATED. SO, IF YOU ARE CONFUSED, PLEASE, LEAVE A COMMENT BELOW THE POST. IF I GET ANY COMMENTS I WILL PROBABLY MAKE AN EDUCATIONAL POST AT SOME POINT TOMORROW OR SUNDAY, SO WE ALL CAN LEARN. IF YOU ARE CONFUSED, LEAVE A FRICKIN COMMENT ABOUT WHAT YOU ARE CONFUSED ON! THAT IS WHY THERE IS A PLACE TO LEAVE COMMENTS BELOW EACH POST!