Clipper!

We will have a clipper cruising through late tonight and tomorrow which will bring northern Ohio 2-4" of snow, with up to 4-6" of snow across extreme NE Ohio due to some upslope enhancement. Southern Ohio will generally see only a dusting of snow than a change to rain. We will be watching next Tuesday for an outside chance of some significant snow/ice...stay tuned!

Final Maps! If You Want Snow, Then Pay Attention!

As I briefly touched on last night, the models were shifting southward, and they came oh so close to bringing the heaviest snow too far south! :o But, Greater Cleveland and points just south seem to be in the the heaviest snow, along with the snow belt where there will be some lake enhancement, but not a ton as the lake is mostly frozen. There still will be some mixing, but it will be south of a Youngstown/Mansfield line. By noon tomorrow the mix will really start to go back to snow across most of Ohio, and by tomorrow evening all of Ohio will be snow. The heaviest snow tomorrow afternoon will set up from Mansfield to northern Trumbull county, where snow rates could at times be between 1-2" an hour. Areas north of that will see snow, but it will not be quite as heavy. Then tomorrow evening, it shifts to more of a lake enhanced event, and the Snow Belt will get an additional 2-4" of lake effect tomorrow night-Wednesday morning, with a little more possible where the moisture from Lake Huron ends up...Enjoy the snow! (if you don't have to drive in it!)

Things Could be Getting Interesting!

All the 0z models that have ran so far (NAM, XNAM (stayed same), RGEM, NGM) are all bringing the storm over the Ohio river if not farther south...this could shift the heaviest band of snow into the Greater Cleveland area...we'll see what the GFS says in a little bit and what the models say tomorrow, but as I mentioned in my last few posts, things can and are changing in the models...

We're in for Some Snow!

I updated my snow maps, and upped the totals a bit especially in northern Ohio...the 18z's were a little farther south, including the operational GFS...These totals could still go up or down a few inches, because a small change in the track would have large impacts, so check back tomorrow!

One More Nice Day

Almost full sunshine across Ohio today, and most of the state will be in the upper 30s and even lower 40s. But, tomorrow night things go downhill. Looks like a mix of everything. I think Monday night, most of the precipitation across Ohio will start as rain, except for northern Ohio, where some ice/snow will be possible to start out...Tuesday morning however, it looks like we will change back to snow across all of Ohio, and some areas could see some heavy accumulations...For now, I will go with 4-8"+ across extreme northern Ohio, and 2-4" for the rest of the state, maybe a little less in the extreme southern portion of Ohio. There are still some model differences and the exact track and strength of the low are up in the air, so those amounts could go way up or way down over the next day.

Nice Weekend! But Then What?

We have seen mostly sunny skies all day across Ohio Saturday, with temps between 27 and 32 for highs...and tomorrow will be just as good, if not a little bit warmer! So, this is the perfect weekend to get out and enjoy the snow all across Ohio, as the northern half of the state has snow on the ground, and the southern half does have some, and it has been cold enough for ski resorts state wide to make snow, so get out and enjoy if you can...we have another winter storm potential for Monday Night/Tuesday...I think all of Ohio will see at least some light accums, especially behind the storm, but anything significant would be confined to extreme northern Ohio...the low looks to track right over central/southern Ohio, so the southern 75% will either see a mix or just plain rain...the northern 25% may even see some mixing but the precip will be mainly snow, and I am going for 4-8" north and west of a Orwell (southern Ashtabula County) Hudson (north-central Summit county) Findlay line...and much less farther SW...those predictions are subject to change, as the models don't have a good handle on the storm, as I think the ones that are any farther north than what I described above are trying to bomb out the storm too fast and bring it too far north...

Snow/Ice Maps and Storm Time-line!

I made a lot of maps for this up coming snow/ice event across Ohio, and much of the Midwest and Northeast...Enjoy!

Winter Storm to Deal With

We will be seeing a mix of everything across Ohio starting this evening and continuing through tomorrow evening...looks like southern Ohio will see the bulk of the mixed precipitation with up to .5" of ice possible. Northern Ohio will see much more snow with 3-6" amounts likily from this whole storm...for tomorrow's rush hours, expect the precip to start lightening up for the morning, but roads will still be slick across most of Ohio, although any snow/ice may start melting off the roads in southern Ohio as temps will climb above freezing tomorrow morning...northern Ohio expect snowy/slushy roads for the morning commute...The evening rush hour could also be treacherous, but mainly in western Ohio as another snow wave will come through with another 1-2" of snow for tomorrow evening...I will have more maps coming this evening...

Blood on the Moon!

The skies went mostly clear which gave me perfect conditions to watch this evenings luner eclipes! It looked like the moon was completely red, and tomorrow evening when I have some more time to update this I will give an explanation for this, and I will give a hint it deals with our atomosphere!

We Have Snow!

Almost all of Ohio has seen at least a coating of snow over the last couple of days, just to remind us that it is indeed February, as we have been fairly warm and stormy over the last few weeks. The big question though, is will we see more snow? And the answer is YES! A storm will be affecting us starting Thursday Night and lasting through Friday night. (see snow map above) The details still have not been completely worked out, but as a guess the northern half of Ohio could see widespread 2-5" of snow out of this snow event...but the southern half of Ohio could see more of a mix of everything as some warm air will be pulled north by the storm...this weekend we will be pretty dry and a bit mild, and it will be a good weekend to get out and enjoy the snow state-wide! Monday and Tuesday we will have another storm to deal with, and that one may have more of a rain/wintry mix than snow, but things can still change...I will have more detailed final maps for the Thursday night/Friday storm by tomorrow.

Rainy and Warm Sunday

Today a strong low pressure center is moving northwest of us, and we are seeing scattered showers, and even some thunder across Ohio today...we are also very warm with temperatures into the 50s...There is a minor flood threat, as rain totals could approach an inch, and there is snow/ice on the ground and rivers, expecially in northern Ohio. Tonight the rain will start changing to snow across NW Ohio, with little if any accumulation. Tomorrow through Tuesday, expect snow showers and gusty winds with some light snow accumulations especially in the Snow Belt, where a few inches might fall...Thursday and then next weekend, it looks like some storms may just miss us to the south, and I will have more on those storms tomorrow...

Spring is Right Around the Corner...

We are only about half way through February, but when looking at the long range models I am already starting to sense that spring is not that far off...but before then: There will be a very strong area of low pressure that will track west of us Sunday/Sunday night. It will spread rain across the area Sunday, as we will be well in the warm sector of the storm. Monday however, we will change back to snow across most of Ohio, and we could see light accumulations, but no more than a couple inches, maybe locally 2-4" in the Snow Belt as there may be a little lake enhancement. Tuesday will remain cold with highs in the 20s state wide, with some light residual lake snows possible in the Snow Belt. Wednesday will be tranquil and seasonable temperature wise. And then enters the next system Thursday. There will be some warm advection rains along a warm front, as temps will be in the 40s on Thursday. Friday a low pressure system emerges into the Planes, and we remain damp but will warm well into the 50s for most of the state and southern Ohio may even see 60. Next Saturday it looks like a cold front will come through, and we will go from 60s to 30s, but the cold air will not be truly arctic and we likely won't get heavy lake effect with it. It then looks like the rest of February will be a bit spring like with some warmer air and less snow. It looks like after next weekend through the rest of February there may be no chances for heavy snow, but as always that could change...

Snow and VERY COLD AIR!

It has been a pleasant day across most of Ohio today, and at times interesting. The whole state is in the 40s, with isolated rain, SLEET, AND SNOW showers, despite temps in the 40s. Here, just outside of Cleveland, it went from mostly sunny and 45 to light snow and about 40, then back to partly skies with temps around 43, all in about 20 minutes. These showers are popping up because we are slightly unstable, with temps a couple thousand feet up below freezing, but at the surface where the sun is out we are in the 40s. Tonight a strong cold front will be coming through. The southern 2/3 of Ohio may see a rain (maybe mixed with snow) shower, while the northern portion of the state will see a period of snow, adding up to a couple inches possibly because the snow will be enhanced a bit by Lake Erie. The front will also bring with it strong winds. Winds are already gusting to 35MPH, and those gusts will only increase tonight and tomorrow, and could reach 55MPH at times. Along with winds and snow, the front will bring in the coldest air of the season. Temperatures on Sunday will start in the 10s and possibly end up in the lower single digits, especially in NW Ohio. These will combine to bring wind chills to well below 0 from tomorrow morning through Monday morning across all of Ohio. Expect wind chills, especially in inland northern Ohio Monday morning to be close to -20. Those types of wind chills are dangerous to be outside in, so expect some school closings/delays Monday morning.
Although there ice on Lake Erie, there will be a moderate Lake Effect event on Sunday and Sunday night in the Snow Belt. The strong, warm winds and temps above freezing for several days have really acted to break up the ice and push it out over mainly northern Lake Erie, and the warm temps have really thinned out the ice, so with a lake/850MB temp differential of -25+, degrees C, even with some lake ice and dry air in place there will be lake effect snow showers, and possibly squalls. I don't think the snow totals will exceed 10" anywhere in the Snow Belt, but there will probably be a lot of reports of 4-7" across the Snow Belt. The snow should be really winding down by Monday morning.
Forecast Details: Tonight: Snow north, scattered rain/snow mix south. Windy. Up to 3" of accumulation north. Wind gusts to 50+MPH. Colder. Low 8-15 NW half of Ohio, and 15-28 SW half of Ohio. Sunday: Lake Effect snow showers NE, partly cloudy elsewhere. Windy and COLD. Temps falling into the single digits northern Ohio and into the lower teens southern Ohio. Wind chills as low as -15 by evening. Wind gusts as high as 50MPH. 3-6" of snow in the Snow Belt.
Sunday Night: Lake Snows starting to wind down, but 1-3" is possibly in the Snow Belt. Mostly clear outside of Snow Belt. Lows -3 to +3. Wind chills between -15 and -21 northern Ohio, and -12 and -15 southern Ohio. We could have a wintry system to deal with on Tuesday, more on that later.
Note: First map in entry is for frontal snow tonight, and second map is for lake snow Sunday-Sunday night.

Calmer on Friday

No more severe weather and wind and flooding rains. Just a flurry or so tomorrow across the state, maybe changing to sprinkles in the afternoon, as a weak cold front comes through. Saturday evening a strong cold front comes through with strong winds and very cold air. Also 1-3" of snow with the front in northern Ohio, and maybe a rain/snow mix for the rest of the state. Then on Sunday it will be very cold with highs struggeling to hit 20. Wind chills below 0. There will be some lake effect snow late Saturday night and Sunday in the Snow Belt. Not a lot, as the air is dry and the lake has a lot of ice. Looks like 2-4" of additional lake effect across the primary and seconday Snow Belts, with up to 8" of lake effect where a lake Huron band sets up. Those amounts may change.

All The Impressive Radar Images Saved on my Computer...No Less Than 13!

A very large, devastating tornado outbreak. So far, 80 tornadoes (2 today) and 54 deaths. Sorry about the top two pictures being the same...

Snow Map

I have really neglected to mention the midwest/NE snowstorm, as my main focus has been severe weather. (see previous post for torndao outbreak summary) Areas from Iowa through New England will end up seeing snow totals of over 12" in some areas. That map is for additional snow after 7PM Wednesday.

The Day After a Deadly Tornado Outbreak

Yesterday was a very large tornado outbreak. As of about 7PM the death toll was at 54. By state, the death totals are: Tennessee: 30. Arkansas: 13. Kentucky: 7. Alabama: 4. This is the deadliest tornado outbreak since May, 31, 1985. This was a very tragic evening and night across the Mississippi, Tennessee, and Southern Ohio Valleys, and hopefully we won't see such a large tornado outbreak for a long time. There have been 80 tornadoes so far (including 2 today). From what I've heard one EF-4 tornado has been classified. Those pictures above are just 2 out of 137 amazing pictures from the AP and Yahoo News, and all 137 can be seen at this location. BTW, Nashville did aviod possible disaster yesterday evening, as the hook echo on radar (posted in last post) and/or possible tornado weakened just before hitting downtown Nashville.

Downtown-Bound

The severe threat is starting to move east, but is still extremely high. Check out the last image...that thing is due to hit Nashville head on around 10:30...A tornado missed Memphis, TN by a few miles earlier today and damaged the out scirts of the city, and they are due to get more severe weather very soon.

About 25 Miles ESE of Hopkinsville in Kentucky

This storm is being warned for.

This just missed Memphis about 45 minutes ago.

Severe damage has been reported.

Severe Weather Outbreak Underway!

Latest regional radar images, warnings, severe threat, ect. Good news is I started chopping off the severe threat area on the western edge. Bad news is we still have a long way to go. I think there will be a lot of tornado warnings over the next 3 hours in the area outlined in the 2nd image. I will post some of the most impressive local radar images shortly.

A Lot to Talk About!

We have a major severe weather outbreak and the chance of flooding to talk about this evening. Thunderstorms are already developing over Indiana, and the northern portion of Ohio will see storms later tonight in response to a warm front coming through and then more in the morning as a cold front approaches, and I can't rule out a scattered storm anywhere else in Ohio tonight. Nothing severe but enough to wake you up and produce heavy rain and small hail. Tomorrow is interesting. The question is how far the front will go through Ohio. Looks like NW corner of the state will see the front go by, so they will cool off in the afternoon. It looks like the same thing right along the lake shore. Otherwise, looks like the rest of the state may stay mild and in the upper 50s/lower 60s all day. There could be scattered areas of thunderstorms moving through all day, especially northern and northwestern Ohio. Then tomorrow evening is when some bad weather could happen. We will see a wave of low pressure ride along the front. This will give us heavy rain, and maybe severe weather, especially the southern 2/3 of Ohio is where the severe threat will be elavated. This won't (hopefully) be a significant severe weather outbreak for Ohio, but definitely points southwest. The potential is there for a devastating afternoon/evening of tornadoes and high winds, especially the high risk area on my map, and even points south of that will probably see a lot of severe weather. But again, the main threat for the northern half of the state will be the very heavy rain. 1-2" will fall there tomorrow night, and with whatever we get on top of that tonight and tomorrow could lead to some flooding, especially since a lot of the rivers are frozen. We will chill down to more February like levels the rest of the week...

Mix tonight, Severe on Tuesday?

We will be warm on Tuesday. All of the state will see at least 50 on Tuesday, and the southern portions of the state will see 60-65. This, along with a cold front coming through will cause some showers and thunderstorms. There is definetly a severe weather threat with these storms late Tuesday into Tuesday night, mainly for the southern half of Ohio. Here's why: A low riding a long the front will bring in more energy, and as this happens the warm front, dividing the warm air from the tropical air will be right over the middle of Ohio. I think south of the warm front, there will be enough instability for a severe weather outbreak. North of the warm front, I think there could be some thunder and heavy rain, but the severe weather threat looks to be much lower. I will have much more on this potential severe weather outbreak tomorrow and Tuesday.

Tonight, as precipitation moves in along a warm front, the temperatures aloft will be above freezing, but it looks like surface temperatures, mainly in extreme NE Ohio could be just bellow freezing, so areas from Cleveland-Akron-Youngstown and northeast could see at least some ice at the onset of precip, and areas that are normally a little coolder may see 2-4 hours of ice to start the precip. With temperatures being marganal, most roads should be fine, but bridges and overpasses and un-treated surfaces my recieve a glaze of ice late tonight. Tomorrow any ice will quickly change to rain with highs of 45 to 50.