Tuesday's Severe

Sorry about not posting earlier today...kind of busy most of today. Today's outbreak was not spectacular, but there were a ton of severe thunderstorm warnings along a squall line (expected) with a lot of high winds but only a handful of tornado reports thus far. Tomorrow between noon and 6PM we could have a few scattered severe thunderstorms producing high winds. Tomorrow there will be a nice low level jet over that area, but it will be moving out by late afternoon leaving a small window for a few severe storms. It looks like things could start popping in western PA/WV around noon, just scattered cells, maybe a broken line, and will move ENE through the slight risk area, with the severe threat going down by evening as the strongest low level jet moves away from the area. The big cities could see a few rumbles of thunder but the severe threat is extremely small. I think there is a very small tornado risk, so I wouldn't be completely surprised if there is a report or two...I will be out of town Wednesday-Sunday and will not be posting during that time. My last post will be some time late tomorrow afternoon/evening, and I MIGHT be able to sneak in another post Sunday late evening.

Severe Weather Starting in OK...How Many Tornadoes Will There Be?

Storms starting to pop over Oklahoma. They are expected to expand NNE tonight. Right now no tornado warning but I do expect several as the evening goes on. I may be able to sneak and update in later this evening. Keep checking your local radar this evening if you are in the tornado watch, and later tonight the threat will expand NE through my slight risk area tonight. As I have been saying a much bigger outbreak tomorrow...

Here is my Monday Map After Taking a Better Look at Things

I made a few changes to the map from this morning. Here they are and why I made them:

1. The most important thing I did was highlight the Chicago area. I am skeptical about things really getting going because of marginal instability, but if the warm front which will be near the Chicago area gets active, there could several tornadoes in the outlined area. Again, I am skeptical, and will give it about a 30% chance of happening, but, if maybe the sun comes out and it gets a little more unstable that area could get going late tomorrow.

2. I shrunk the moderate risk. I realized that when the main batch of storms gets as far east as like central IL they will be starting to weaken due to the loss of daytime heating, so I cut some off the eastern edge of the moderate risk.

3. I pulled the southern edge of everything farther south because there will be a dry line extending down to close to the gulf coast.

We'll see how things start developing tomorrow afternoon but as it looks now near and in that moderate risk area there could be several strong super cell thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes, and there could be a squall line that sweeps west to east with the cold front tomorrow afternoon/evening with a widespread high wind threat. Also, watch the Chicago area as there is an outside chance of a secondary outbreak there.

Monday's Outbreak Map

The threat is there for a tornado outbreak tomorrow. We will get a cold front approaching the area in question tomorrow afternoon, and a squall line will develop along the front, bringing the threat for high winds due to a strong low level jet stream. The tornado threat comes ahead of that squall line, where individual super cells develop. How far north these super cells get depends on the amount of instability IMO. That is why I think there is only a small threat for tornadoes in the Chicago area. Farther south it will be warmer and moisture, so I think more super cells will break out in that area (signified by my moderate risk) This could be a large outbreak depending on how things set up. More on this later.

An Update on Today's Outbreak

There is a cluster of severe storms near the Louisiana/Texas border this morning. Those will dissipate throughout the day. This evening we could see some scattered super-cell thunderstorms develop across Texas/Oklahoma/Missouri. This won't be a huge outbreak but some large hail and isolated tornadoes are likely this evening. This outbreak will continue into and expand tomorrow. An update on that soon.

Sunday Evening Tornado Outbreak?

Sunday evening looks to be busy in Oklahoma, Kansas, and even into Missouri. A warm front will be the focal point of perhaps a mini tornado outbreak. Why? Along and just north of the warm front surface winds will be from the SE, but winds just aloft will be blasting SSW at 50-60 knots, creating a ton of wind shear. I do not think there will be widespread thunderstorms, as it won't be extremely warm and unstable and moist, but, there will be at least isolated thunderstorms and any storms will be capable of producing tornadoes. This looks like if there is a mini outbreak it will get going Sunday after dark. Monday there will likely be a much larger outbreak. More details tomorrow.

Saturday "Severe"

Not much severe weather to speak of. A front will remain stalled over the southern US, and late tomorrow night may start lifting northward towards IL/IN. That could be the focal point of some thunderstorms, but no little waves of energy riding along the front to spark off any severe weather. No tornado reports expected tomorrow, 10> hail reports, 10> high wind reports. Sunday-Tuesday will be much more active. More on that later Saturday.

No Rest for the Weary: Flooding and Severe Weather Threaten Again

We will be very busy Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday tracking a severe weather outbreak and also some heavy rains. Lets break this down day by day:
Sunday will not be that bad. The storm will just be starting to get together over the Rocky Mountains. It will already start drawing warm air and moisture northward, so there could be some moderate rains breaking out along a warm front. South of the warm front a few storms could pop up but nothing major. Over Texas there will be a dry line but there won't be much action along it Sunday as there will be very little moisture to work with.

Monday will be the worst day of this event. The storm will be fully organized and will pull a ton of moisture and warm air northward. However it will be like winter behind the storm. This clash of air masses will really get everything going by creating a lot of instability. There will be an extremely strong low level jet with this storm. It looks like just a few thousand feet up the winds will be screaming at 70-90MPH, which will add to the instability and create wind shear. It looks like Monday late afternoon when things really get going there could be quite a few super-cell thunderstorms from Texas all the way up into IL/southern MI. Late Monday evening this will transform into more of a squall line with damaging winds being the biggest threat. The event will diminish late Monday night. These storms could dump 1-3"+ of rain over already flooded areas so this system will only make flooding problems worse. There could be minor flooding as far north as Michigan and into Canada, but less of a severe threat in those areas as they will be a little cooler and more stable. All this moisture will get pulled northward and will create some moderate snows on the northern side of this storm.

Tuesday the front pushes farther east. There won't be as much of a flooding rain threat and less of a severe threat as it won't be as warm and unstable as it will be in the Mississippi Valley on Monday. Here in Ohio the front will come through Tuesday morning during the convective minima, so there could be some thunder and gusty winds but the severe threat and flood threat will be lower. As the front pushes east into PA/NY and even southern New England later Tuesday there will be enough instability and still a strong low level jet so some damaging winds are possible Tuesday afternoon/evening across those areas. The severe threat will diminish Tuesday night so by the time the front reaches the big cities the severe threat will be diminishing. Even though New England won't be seeing too much heavy rain there is a ton of snow on the ground that will start melting. I think for now we will avoid disaster as it will only warm for 24-36 hours and rain amounts will be fairly light, but minor flooding will be an issue in New England. More updates and more detailed maps this weekend.

Flood Warnings

Last nights heavy rain, which dumped 1-2" across most of northern Ohio has triggered minor flooding on several Ohio rivers. That map shows the counties being warned for. Here some more specifics on the flooding (from the NWS as 10AM this morning, current water levels may be different):
-The Cuyahoga River at Independence is currently at 16.9 feet and rising, and is expected to crest near 17.3 feet this afternoon. Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
-The Grand River at Painesville is currently at 7.0 feet and rising, and is expected to crest near 9.5 feet around noon today. Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
-The Black River at Elyria is at 10.8 feet and rising, and is expected to crest between 11.5 and 12.0 feet this afternoon. Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
-The Huron River near Milan is at 18.0 feet and slowly rising, and is expected to crest near 18.1 feet this afternoon. Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
-The Portage River at Woodville is at 7.5 feet and rising, and is expected to crest between 11.0 and 11.5 feet around midnight tonight. Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
-The Blanchard River near Findlay is at 9.7 feet and rising, and is expected to crest between 11.5 and 12.0 feet tonight. Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
-The Tiffin River near Stryker is at at 11.4 feet and rising, and is expected to crest near 12.9 feet Sunday morning. Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
-The Killbuck Creek near Killbuck is at 14.2 feet and rising, and is expected to crest near 15.2 feet Sunday morning. Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
-The Muskingum River near Coshocton is at 16.2 feet and will fluctuate around 16.0 feet through tomorrow morning. Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
-The Tuscarawas River near New Philadelphia is at 7.7 feet and will remain near or above the 7.5 feet flood stage until further notice or when the warning is canceled.
-The Mahoning River at Leavittsburg is at 10.9 feet and rising, and is expected to crest between 11.5 and 12.0 feet this afternoon. Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
-The Mahoning River at Youngstown is at 9.9 feet and rising, and is expected to crest between 12.5 and 13.0 feet this evening. Flood stage is 10.0 feet.

Friday Severe

Not much severe weather to speak of Friday...The system bringing us heavy rain/thunder/snow tonight will shift east and drag a cold front with it sparking off some thunder in the Mid Atlantic, and that front will stall over the Carolinas/Tennessee/Arkansas/Oklahoma, and late Friday night a bit of a wave of low pressure will develop over Texas along that front which could spark off some scattered thunderstorms late Friday Night especially over south Texas...Storm Chasers, sorry, but I wouldn't be supprised if there are ZERO tornado reports tomorrow, but I think there could be 10-20 hail reports and 5-15 high wind reports, very low numbers which is good for people who don't want severe weather. I am eying a system this coming Monday/Tuesday for a better chance of severe weather and more flooding rains, along with a warm up.

Snow Changover Very Slow...

The change to snow has made its way into Mansfield according to an official NWS observation. I will back off my earlier predictions and declare this one a bust...NW Ohio will still see 3-5" but here in north central and northeast Ohio only an inch or so will be the max...this has been really deflating...we go from the models showing us in the warm sector and temps near 50 tomorrow, to the models showing several inches of snow tonight, to the models going back closer to their original solutions which showed us getting very little snow...If I had to grade myself (for following the models and biting on the colder solution) I would give myself an F and I would the the models an F-. Now that we really look to be turning the corner into spring (finally) the main shift of this blog will start shifting towards severe weather, with many more (daily if I can find time) thunderstorm threat maps for the country. I will also be paying more potential to flooding potentials (this spring has already been bad for flooding). And come June obviously the tropics will be covered extensively on this blog. And just in case Mother Nature throws one more wintry curveball at us I will be ready to cover snow if needed.

A bit of a Change

Yesterday it looked like northern Ohio could see 3-6" of snow...today the models backed off the solution a bit...it looks like the precip moving in this evening will start as mainly rain, but as the evening goes on it looks like north of I-80 we will change to snow by midnight, with 2-4" possible, especially NW and far NE Ohio along with some sleet. South of I-80 there still could be a light coating of snow. We could also see some thunder as convection is definetly occurring in the batch of precip moving our way.

BREAKING NEWS: MAJOR SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY/FRIDAY

The storm that was supposed to put us in the warm air Friday looks to be doing the opposite. A front will stall near the Ohio river, putting northern Ohio in the cold sector. Cold enough for snow, it appears. Surface temps may be just a little to warm especially during the day Thursday but overnight Thursday night it will get cold enough for all snow, and perhaps a thin stripe of 4-7" between the lake shore and areas about 20 miles inland...most of it falling Thursday night. So, how will this system evolve? A wave of low pressure and precip will move towards Ohio tonight. Most of it will be rain, but north of I-80 especially there could be snow mixed in. Around 1" of accumulation is possible by tomorrow morning. Tomorrow wave one of low pressure/precip will move through. Most of it will be rain, but north of I-80 it could occasionally mix with snow especially early in the morning and late in the afternoon. No accumulations, as temps will range from 35-45 across northern Ohio to 55-60 near the Ohio river, with 45-55 in between, a large temp range, and too warm for snow to accumulate anywhere. Just a note a bit of a break in the precip is expected tomorrow afternoon. Thursday night is when things get interesting. Surface temps will cool to the lower 30s across northern Ohio, and even the mid to upper 30s in central Ohio, so northern Ohio will change to all snow and even down to near Dover/New Philly, and Findley it could mix with snow. Most accumulating snow will be Thursday Night, with 3-6" across far northern Ohio with a dusting as far south as areas like Canton. Friday morning things wind down but up to 1" of snow is possible Friday morning. Like usual, the track of the low is key. It tracks farther south and we have more snow, farther north much less snow. Stay tuned as this forecast may change over the next 24 hours.

Jimbo's Weather School: How to Read the Models: 500MB Height Anomalies

What are the 500MB height anomalies? They are how much higher or lower the 500MB heights are compared to normal. How is this important? Well, the lower the 500MB height is, that usually means there is more troughiness. If they are higher than normal that means there is ridging taking place. The jet stream usually resides between the troughiness and ridging. So you can tell if the pattern is favorable for a storm track. For example, on the map above, it shows a pretty favorable track for a strong Nor'easter. You can see a ridge of high pressure in the western US. That causes the jet stream to be more amplified, meaning it is running more vertical (or north to south), which can bring down more cold air behind (or north) the jet stream, and more warm air north in front of the jet stream, which can be more favorable for a storm to develop because extremes fuel storms. And a more amplified weather pattern often allows troughs with storms to really dig, allowing them to strengthen and not move quickly off the east coast. You can also see some ridging over the north Atlantic, or blocking. This will allow the storm from going straight out to sea (because it would block the storm). You don't want too much blocking, because the storm would just go around it and stay away from the northeast. You can also see ridging over the Arctic, which often forces cold air south from the arctic. You can also determine the three important teleconnections (AO, NAO, PNA) by looking at these maps...the amount of ridging over the Arctic determines the AO. Troughiness over the arctic creates a negative AO which often allows colder air to spill southward. Ridging over northern Canada creates a positive AO which keeps arctic air bottled up. So for a negative AO and cold air spilling down you want troughiness over northern Canada and the arctic and no ridging over Canada or the arctic. The amount of ridging over the Atlantic determines the NAO. Ridging over the Atlantic creates a negative NAO. The ridging over the western US determines the PNA. Ridging over the western US equals a positive PNA.

HYPE! East Coast Storm Around the 4th?

It has shown up almost constantly on the GFS and EURO the last couple of days, and the pattern would support it. A Nor'easter around April 4th. I don't like over-hyping storms so far out but the weather pattern would support it, as there will be a ridge over the west creating a much more amplified weather pattern which will allow the trough in the east to pull down cold air. There is also blocking over the Atlantic. Not enough to to suppress the storm to the south and out to sea and not enough to cause the storm to go west of the Appellations, so if a storm does indeed develop around this date it would have to go up the east coast. But, as is always the case about 10 days out things could change in the models and there are still things that need to be worked out like if it will be cold enough for snow south of New England. I will have more on this over the next week.

The Warm Side to the System Later This Week

There will be some severe weather with the storm system later this week. No huge outbreak. Not a ton of instability, there will be some extra lift/wind shear near the area of low pressure so that is where the best chance for severe storms will lie. I am in pretty good agreement with the SPC on this one. No huge outbreak just a slight risk event confined to near the low track. Flooding rain hopefully won't be an issue unless we get some training of thunderstorms.

Storm to Produce Snow, Ice Thursday-Saturday, But Where?

Another late season snow/ice event possible late this week into the weekend. As you can see on the second map though this will not be a huge east coast storm, just a storm riding up along a front and bringing warm air farther north. There is a threat for major snow/ice though on the northern end of the storm. While we won't get a huge storm and just a weak wave of low pressure, there will be some overrunning precipitation well ahead of the storm so many areas in the snow/ice zones could see 24-36 hours of snow/ice, and it could add up in some areas. Now the first map shows why this storm won't bomb out on the east coast of form a secondary low that moves up the coast. Just way too much blocking over the Atlantic. More updates later.

Clipper Produces a Stripe of Snow

A clipper will be passing through the northern Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday, bringing up a lot of warm air, and stirring up some gusty winds. There will also be a bit of a snowy side, but it will be well north of Ohio. Here in Ohio there could be a brief period of snow to start tomorrow late morning/early afternoon but after that it will change to rain.

What Weather Will You Have to Deal With to Start the Workweek?

A pretty quiet weather pattern Monday/Tuesday...only a couple of things to note...east coast may and I stress may see some increased clouds/winds from the storm that will be passing well off shore Monday. Also the Midwest and Great Lakes will have another clipper to contend with with light to moderate rain/snow. Today the Great Lakes area is seeing light snow showers from a weak cold front. Up to 1" of accumulations in the Great Lakes today.

A Tuesday Clipper?

It looks like another fairly weak weather system will be affecting the region on Tuesday, this time with a mix of rain and snow. A clipper will ride through the northern Great Lakes, and will spread precipitation over much of Ohio, with the heaviest probably being over northern Ohio, as the SE ridge is going to be back and it will be impacting our weather all week long. It looks like southern Ohio won't see too much from this thing, maybe a line of showers (and thunder) with some gusty winds as a cold front gets dragged through late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Northern Ohio may see some steadier precipitation, and it may be cold enough that far northern Ohio sees several hours of snow to start the storm late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. It will not be a huge snow producer but as an early guess it seems reasonable to say 1-3" of snow could fall across much of northern Ohio before a change to rain late Tuesday. Northern Ohio will also see gusty winds as a blowtorch of warm air advection will reach into that area as well. Tuesday evening it appears northern Ohio will also see a line of showers and potent winds as the same cold front goes through there, just with slightly colder temperatures. This storm will not be a huge snow producer for anyone, but people in a lot of areas from the Great Lakes east through southern Ontario, Canada and eventually northern New England will see 2-4" of new snow. More updates as this clipper approaches...

As I noted on the map above our good old friend the Southeast ridge will be making a comeback this week and will cause a large pattern shift to spring east of the Mississippi for several days. We will see our largest taste of warm air for a lot of areas from the Plains on east especially the second half of the week. That means snow melt so for a lot of areas in the Great Lakes and New England where there is a lot of snow on the ground flooding is going to be a concern.

Easter Forecast For Cleveland

No major travel problems but up to a half inch of snow accumulation is possible tomorrow with slightly higher amounts Sunday night and Monday in the Snow Belt.

Weather Disscusions

For Great Lakes and Midwest:
A pretty quiet weather pattern will take hold over the next couple of days. But, the weather will not be completely quiet as there will be a atmospheric irritation moving through the region tomorrow. A weak back door type of cold front will drift through the Great Lakes tomorrow and tomorrow night, sparking off some light snow showers. No more than a dusting of snow is expected with this disturbance, but it will temporarily bring down some more winter like temperatures. Highs will remain 5-15 degrees below normal Sunday for the whole region but will start to recover some on Monday especially if you head to or west of the Mississippi River. We will have a bigger weather system to contend with later Monday and on Tuesday, more on that later.

For the East:
The east will be just as quiet and cool as the Midwest/Great Lakes. There will be some light snow showers possible tomorrow into Monday over western New England from the same cool front that will bring light snow to the Great Lakes tomorrow. The east will also remain below average for this time of year tomorrow and Monday. Overall high pressure will dominate the weather and will keep any kind of storms away from the East through Monday at least.

Final Analysis for Monday's "Storm"

That map explains it all. Earlier in the week the chances of a major snow storm on Monday looked very promising. But as the week went on it slowly became more and more apparent that this storm would be suppressed to the south and stay out to sea. And now, two days before the storm, it is very obvious why the storm will stay out to sea. In my previous post I mentioned how strong high pressure will come down behind that trough of low pressure. Well the final product is shown above. The whole eastern half of the US will be under the protective umbrella of high pressure. Just no way a developing storm will be able to pierce this strong high pressure and move up the east coast. Some of the models have brought the storm slightly farther west this morning, but I think in the end the high pressure will win and the storm will stay out to sea.

Will the East get Snow This Weekend?

After up to 10" of snow across Ohio last night, will we dry out and stay snow less for a few days here? No. But will we see any major plow able snow? No. Will anyone in the east see anything heavy? No, nothing widespread. But as I mentioned there will be some snow showers. We will have a weak cold front/shortwave drift down into the Great Lakes/Northeast. It will be enough to spark off scattered snow showers, or maybe some rain showers south of the Great Lakes/New England. I do not see anything really accumulating with this weak system. After this shortwave passes, there will be some colder air over the Great Lakes and I could see some areas seeing 1-4" of Lake Effect off of any of the Great Lakes, but this won't be a major event. In my next post I will post my final analysis on the storm, or lack of one on Monday.

Clipper Tracking a Little Farther North

As I hinted last night, the clipper is tracking a little farther north, and that does change the forecast some. First, it brings the rain/snow line and area of lower totals farther north, so for Chicago instead of being on the edge of the 12"+ line like yesterday you are now on the edge of the 6" line. Areas just north of Chicago will likely see around a foot of snow. The threat for accumulating snow has shifted into Detroit. It appears they will be on the northern edge of this system but will see 1-3" in the city and 3-6" immediately south of the city itself. For Ohio, the mix line will be a little farther north, but not much farther north than it was. But, the higher totals have been shifted to the NE a bit, so it now appears that even Ashtabula county could see 2-4" of snow. Just a few small changes overall as the clipper is tracking a little farther north, but the bottom line is this thing will still bring a period of heavy snow for quite a few areas

Some Thoughts and Concerns About Clipper

I think the snow map I posted a few posts ago will be close to reality, both with the placement of the the highest totals and the rain snow line. But, there is major bust potential here, for a major city. Chicago which is on the southern edge of heavy snow on my map is where I'm talking about. Why? Warm air. This storm will pull in a lot of warm air. Southern IL, MI, and IN will be in the 60s tomorrow. Chicago which currently is barely in the heavy snow zone could easily see some warm air come in and change the precipitation to rain and significantly cut down on totals. Other then that everything looks on track...


Side note:
Sunday-Monday actually looked interesting to me on the Oz GFS...in terms of some accumulating snow. The model showed a series of shortwaves coming through, each with some lift and cold air. These could easily interact with Lake Erie and deposit a few inches of snow in the Snow Belt Sunday and Monday. Not sounding an alarm yet just pointing out that interesting happening showing up on the GFS.

Snowstorm Monday? Update:

Don't need any maps to explain this. All the models are showing a suppressed storm for Monday/Tuesday, and showing very little snow for anyone in the Midwest or northeast. As I learned with the last "storm" don't go against the models when they are in such good agreement so far out. I will have more updates on the clipper and this coming "storm" later tonight.

One Heck of a Clipper!

A very strong Alberta Clipper will come through Friday-Saturday, and it will pack heavy snow from the upper midwest and into Ohio. Chicago may be near the bullseye with up to a foot of snow possible. Across Ohio still going for 3-6" in NW and north central Ohio, 1-3" or less in far NE Ohio, and less to the south due to rain mixing in. The clipper will also be weakening as it crosses the area so far eastern Ohio will see less precip and a smaller potential of heavy snow.

More Details on the Friday Clipper

Not a huge snow storm, but we will see some moderate snow Friday-Saturday from the upper Midwest towards the northeast. This WILL NOT be a huge storm but will give some areas some fresh snow to start off this spring.

Sneaky Snowstorm TODAY?!?

Sneaky? No, not if you remember the map above that I posted on Monday. Now, obviously no one in Illinois or Michigan is going to get any snow, but they did over the last couple days. (the map is two days old) But as I was thinking two days ago areas in northern Ohio could see a quick few inches of snow this evening. As seen on the radar above snow is already falling across portions of Ohio, and the is supported by official obs of snow within the last two hours at Lorain County Regional Airport and Hopkins's airport. Now just to clarify the map above is not for additional snowfall after today, because I made it Monday, so some of that 12"+ has fallen over New England, but I do expect most of the amounts shown over Ohio to be very close to reality. The precipitation is going to start falling on me very soon so I will post a comment that contains an observation of the precipitation type.

Snowstorm? Update:

The storm got lost in some models and pushed well south by others, and at this far out from the date of the possible storm all we could do was sit back and watch the models try to work things out. And it appears they are trying to do that. The EURO which is the most accurate mid-range model jumped to a solution showing an inland runner up the east coast, and the models that lost the storm are starting to bring it back. In the end I think the track will end up closest to the EURO's current track, and that could give inland areas of the NE, especially areas in the mountains some heavy snow. Here in Ohio it looks like we may be on the western fringes of some heavy snow so stay tuned!

Clipper Update:

A clipper will come zipping through here Friday afternoon/night. It will spread with it mainly snow in the north and mixed precip or rain in southern Ohio. Sticking to 3-6" NW and north central Ohio, and 1-3" in far NE Ohio. Less amounts farther south. There will be some precipitation streaking into the NE US also. No major snows, but parts of southern New England could also see 3-6" or so of snow. Looks like surface temps will be a bit of an issue with this clipper so areas in mountains will see the best chance of heavier snow. A more detailed map tomorrow.

Sneaky Snowstorm Friday?

A moisture laden dynamic Alberta Clipper looks to be dropping through here on Friday, and we could have a little surprise snowstorm. There are two questions: Will this thing be suppressed to the south? and Will it be cold enough for snow? Well, the answer for both is kind of up in the air. But I think the clipper will be strong enough that it could creep north enough to give us moderate precipitation across Ohio. Most of the ensembles and all the operational models but the NAM (no surprise) show all of Ohio getting .4-.6" of QPF except extreme northern Ohio, but a lot of times I will watch clippers slowly get pushed south out of the area on models in the days leading up to them. And will there be enough cold air? In the north, probably cold enough for all snow. The rest of the state will see either rain or a rain snow mix as it stands now...so, when we put that all together what am I forecasting:

A clipper will provide moderate precipitation to most of Ohio, and only light precipitation to far northeast Ohio. North of a Findley-Akron-Youngstown line expect all snow and 3-6" in NW and north central Ohio with 1-4" in far northeast Ohio. Between that line and I-70 in south central Ohio expect a rain snow mix with slushy accumulations of a coating to an inch Friday evening/Night. South of I-70 expect mostly rain with no accumulations. I smell a snow map on this storm Wednesday or Thursday so stay tuned!

Snow Map

Well I hinted at it in my discussions earlier today and I believe there well be some snow after the storm across Ohio. 1-2" for most of the state but 3-5" in the Snow Belt where the lake can enhance totals a bit. Over northern New England where they will not go over to rain they could see over a foot.

Eastern US Weather Discussion

High pressure is in control up and down the east coast at the moment with no significant weather to speak of over the next day or so. But the East will not be spared from the flooding and severe threat the upcoming storm poses. There also will be a wintry side to the storm over northern New England. After a chilly start tomorrow morning in New England most of the day tomorrow will be fairly nice in the east. Temps will go up to near or slightly above normal out ahead of the storm system that will be affecting the region this week. High pressure will slide east off the coast tomorrow, and rain will break out across PA, NY, and the upper Mid Atlantic tomorrow afternoon out ahead of a warm front. The southeast US and New England will remain dry tomorrow during the day as high pressure will still be keeping these areas dry. Tomorrow night the rain will continue spreading NE into New England but amounts should be under 1" so no major flooding yet although areas in PA where snow melt and moderate rain amounts there could be some nuisance flooding breaking out. The precip over northern New England may fall in the form of snow, but nothing too heavy yet. The SE US will remain mainly dry tomorrow night with just some isolated thunderstorms possible in the warm air mass. Wednesday the severe weather, flooding rain, and chance for a winter storm will materialize across the eastern portion of the country. The cold front will start crashing into the SE and areas like Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, and up into the Virginias/DC region there will be a severe weather threat. Right now I do not for see a huge tornado outbreak but there will definetly be a squall line coming through with a chance of isolated super cells out ahead of it. Areas in the Mid Atlantic will continue seeing periods of moderate rain and river levels will start to rise some. Wednesday night the cold front will continue east and a lot of the east will continue to dry out. I do not see much more than nuisance flooding except for in PA where heavier rain will fall and over southern New England where snow melt will compound any flooding problems. As colder air slips in and the storm really wraps up northern Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire will see a major snow storm and 7-14" of snow may fall along with gusty winds. A snow map for this will definetly be issued tomorrow. The east is also watching for a potential snow storm next Monday/Tuesday, but the models are currently keeping the storm will south of the Mid-Atlantic and New England and only shows light rain over the south, but as I have said before this could very well change.'

Ohio Weather Disscusion

Well, in terms of flooding and severe weather nothing changes from my thoughts yesterday. There will be a severe weather outbreak mainly in the south, with tornadoes and high winds being the biggest threats, but I do not think this will be an extremely large outbreak in which the SPC puts out a high risk. I still think there will be flooding problems from Texas through the lower Great Lakes, and nuisance flooding all the way into New England. Wednesday afternoon/night we will transition to snow across Ohio. Right now I think most of Ohio will see 1-2" of snow, and the Snow Belt will see 3-5". Those are up from earlier because the models are indicating some deformation snows across Ohio Wednesday evening. Right now I am a bit skeptical about it, so I am sticking to the lower accumulations. But, if things change I may need to issue a snow map for this tomorrow or Wednesday. Thursday there will be lingering lake effect snow showers in the Snow Belt, but accumulations will be minimal. Friday and Saturday will be tranquil. Sunday and Monday there is still a chance of major snow, but today all the models have gone south with the storm and leaving us mainly dry, but of coarse things could change and I will continue to monitor the situation the rest of this week.

More Hype: Major Snowstorm Still POSSIBLE Around Easter

Well, another model run this afternoon just added to the already growing excitement over a possible snowstorm around easter or the day after. The EURO, the top image is very similar to what the 12z GFS looked like, showing a strong area of low pressure tracking just inland from the Atlantic ocean all the way up the east coast. That would mean heavy snow for us. The 18z DGEX also looked a lot like the 12Z GFS and EURO, showing a low tracking just inland from the Atlantic Ocean up the east coast. It showed snow from northern Ohio with mixing or rain for central/southern Ohio. The 18z GFS tracked farther SE, missing us with the heaviest snow. As of now this storm is very hard to call, as we could still see anything from mainly rain across Ohio to a blizzard to hardly anything, but as it stands now, the possibility is there from the Great Plains through Ohio, and the rest of the lower Great Lakes, and into New England of a major late season snowstorm. Right now I think that unless the low is suppressed way to the south most of the big cities along the east coast (except for Boston) will see mainly rain, but it is areas not too far inland that are higher up that need to watch for heavy snow in the NE, and through New England as well. Much more on this later.

Very Rainy and Stormy in the East

As I have been saying all weekend, we will definetly be seeing a spring like storm this week, with warmer, more humid air, heavy, flooding rains, and severe weather especially in the south. IMO this will not be a HUGE severe weather outbreak, but will be decent, with damaging winds and tornadoes being the biggest severe aspects, although any strong storm may pack hail with it. The severe weather outbreak will be fueled by cold, winter like air crashing into spring like warm air, and the strong jet stream energy associated with the cold front adding the threat for strong winds and tornadoes. This will not be as large an outbreak as we have seen a couple times this winter, because the air behind the front will not be as cold so there will be less instability, and the jet stream energy won't be as extreme but as I said earlier we still will need to watch out for a moderate sized severe weather outbreak. Another major concern is flooding, as the cold front will be moving rather slowly with waves of low pressure riding along it, so areas could see an extended period of heavy rain. We will have to watch a corridor from Texas all the way into the lower Great Lakes for the potential of 3-6" of RAIN, on top of already saturated ground. That always spells trouble. So, stay tuned on this one as we could be talking about severe weather and major flooding over the next few days.

Hype: More on the Powerhouse Storm I Mentioned Earlier

Well, the 12z GFS is back in LaLa land...It is showing a cold snow storm for use next Sunday and Monday. So is the CMC...however the EURO, DGEX, and other runs of the GFS are showing a warm rainstorm with severe weather. Right now, I am not willing to pick a side as we are still a week away from this storm impacting us. But either way, it looks like east coast snow lovers are probably not going to see a large Nor'Easter snow storm, but areas from the Apps and New England and points NW do need to watch for a POTENTIAL snow storm.

Severe in the South, Flooding Everywhere

As I said yesterday we are in for a lot of rain in the eastern half of the country Monday-Wednesday, and severe weather in the south. Why? A cold front will drift southeast across the eastern portion of the country. As that is happening, several waves of low pressure will ride up the front, adding more energy and slowing down the front. The slow speed of the front and abundant tropical moisture will cause an extended threat of heavy rain ahead of the cold front. Near the cold front there will be more instability due to the clash of air masses and jet stream energy. This will cause a severe weather outbreak, especially in the south as there will be more instability there due to warmer air and higher dew points. As I said yesterday there won't be much of a wintry side of the storm, but behind the cold front on Thursday there could be some lake effect snow, but right now I don't see more than 1-4" of snow piling up in the Snow Belt Thursday/Thursday night. There could be another power house storm late next weekend and early next week but there are questions if we will see a lot of snow or a lot of rain, but right now I am leaning towards the latter as we are quickly coming up on April and winter's days appear to be numbered, but either way stay tuned as it could still have negative impacts on our weather because even if it is warm flooding could be an issue.