Monday's Outbreak Map

The threat is there for a tornado outbreak tomorrow. We will get a cold front approaching the area in question tomorrow afternoon, and a squall line will develop along the front, bringing the threat for high winds due to a strong low level jet stream. The tornado threat comes ahead of that squall line, where individual super cells develop. How far north these super cells get depends on the amount of instability IMO. That is why I think there is only a small threat for tornadoes in the Chicago area. Farther south it will be warmer and moisture, so I think more super cells will break out in that area (signified by my moderate risk) This could be a large outbreak depending on how things set up. More on this later.