No Rest for the Weary: Flooding and Severe Weather Threaten Again

We will be very busy Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday tracking a severe weather outbreak and also some heavy rains. Lets break this down day by day:
Sunday will not be that bad. The storm will just be starting to get together over the Rocky Mountains. It will already start drawing warm air and moisture northward, so there could be some moderate rains breaking out along a warm front. South of the warm front a few storms could pop up but nothing major. Over Texas there will be a dry line but there won't be much action along it Sunday as there will be very little moisture to work with.

Monday will be the worst day of this event. The storm will be fully organized and will pull a ton of moisture and warm air northward. However it will be like winter behind the storm. This clash of air masses will really get everything going by creating a lot of instability. There will be an extremely strong low level jet with this storm. It looks like just a few thousand feet up the winds will be screaming at 70-90MPH, which will add to the instability and create wind shear. It looks like Monday late afternoon when things really get going there could be quite a few super-cell thunderstorms from Texas all the way up into IL/southern MI. Late Monday evening this will transform into more of a squall line with damaging winds being the biggest threat. The event will diminish late Monday night. These storms could dump 1-3"+ of rain over already flooded areas so this system will only make flooding problems worse. There could be minor flooding as far north as Michigan and into Canada, but less of a severe threat in those areas as they will be a little cooler and more stable. All this moisture will get pulled northward and will create some moderate snows on the northern side of this storm.

Tuesday the front pushes farther east. There won't be as much of a flooding rain threat and less of a severe threat as it won't be as warm and unstable as it will be in the Mississippi Valley on Monday. Here in Ohio the front will come through Tuesday morning during the convective minima, so there could be some thunder and gusty winds but the severe threat and flood threat will be lower. As the front pushes east into PA/NY and even southern New England later Tuesday there will be enough instability and still a strong low level jet so some damaging winds are possible Tuesday afternoon/evening across those areas. The severe threat will diminish Tuesday night so by the time the front reaches the big cities the severe threat will be diminishing. Even though New England won't be seeing too much heavy rain there is a ton of snow on the ground that will start melting. I think for now we will avoid disaster as it will only warm for 24-36 hours and rain amounts will be fairly light, but minor flooding will be an issue in New England. More updates and more detailed maps this weekend.