On Sunday Invest 94L was named in the central Atlantic. This evening, there has been a flair up of convection that has a clear cyclonic swirl. As of right now (around midnight) I believe this is already on the verge of becoming a depression, so I have high confidence that a depression will be named at 5AM or 11AM Monday by the NHC. The models are already plowing this thing into the Leeward islands on Thursday, and near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola around Friday. Right now there is a large ridge to the north of this future tropical storm (Cristobal) which is steering it to the WNW. All indications are that this trend will continue for the next several days, so a hit to the Leeward islands seems plausible later in the week. After that, the track is still uncertain, because of a possible weakness in the ridge caused by Bertha, but it is apparent at the moment that the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola need to watch out for a possible hit from a tropical cyclone Thursday-Friday. As for the intensity forecast, with low shear (5-15 knots) forecasted and Invest 94L moving over waters of 27-28 degrees, I see no reason why this system should not slowly intensify through Friday, and also see no reason why a strong TS or weak hurricane won't be spinning by Friday. Here is a quick look forecast:
0z Wednesday (8PM Tuesday): 13.5N, 47W with winds of 50-55MPH
0z Friday (8PM Thursday): 18.3N, 62.5 W with winds of 70-75MPH.
BERTHA NOTE: Over the last few days Bertha has been sitting and spinning in the same general area while slowly weakening. It has caused large swells and a rip current risk up and down the east coast, which should continue through the beginning of the week, but start subsiding some by Wednesday-Thursday. Bertha will also make a close pass to Bermuda Monday/Tuesday. The island can expect heavy rains, high winds, and high surf. Nothing major to the island, and if anything some beneficial rainfall.
No comments:
Post a Comment