Saturday Night Bertha Update

Since my discussion was written at around 5PM, I will update, that since then another burst of convection has fired over or just north of the center of circulation over the last few hours, and you can see that on the IR satellite image that I posted above. Now for my full forecast discussion: (18z on the projected path is 2PM EDT):

Discussion:

Today, Bertha has continued to move slightly north of west, at 20-22MPH, and has gotten a little better organized, as it has moved west of the drier, African air that had been choking it yesterday, the modest shear let up, and it is starting to move over warm sea surface temps (SSTs). This general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 or so hours, as Bertha continues to move south of a mid level ridge over much of the northern Atlantic. However, in 2-3 days, a trough will move north of Bertha. This should not be enough to re-curve Bertha out to sea, but it should bend Bertha a little more to the north. Than, in 5-7 days a S/W will start moving off the east coast, and should create enough of a weakness in the high to start steering Bertha more to the NW, and could be enough to re-curve her out to sea. I am still not going to rule out a US landfall, or close brush from Bertha, because the trough may end up missing Bertha or being weaker, but it is starting to look like the chances of a US landfall have gone down a little. I am not going to put the chance of a US landfall, or a very near miss at about 30% now, which is down a little from what I though earlier today and yesterday. I am holding the chance of Bertha passing within 100 miles of Bermuda at 40%.

As for the intensity forecast, low shear and favorable SSTs should support a gradual strengthening to a weak CAT 1 hurricane by some time on Monday. After Monday, some shear will start impacting Bertha. Not as much as models like the GFS earlier advertised, but probably around 20 knots, which should keep Bertha from getting too strong, and may even weaken the storm a little bit. Here is my intensity forecast:

18z Sun: 55-60MPH

18z Mon: 70-75MPH

18z Tue: 75-80MPH18z

Wed: 70-75MPH18z

Thu: 65-70MPH

In summary, this storm bares watching, especially for Bermuda, but is not cause for panic at all, because a direct hit from a destructive hurricane is NOT EXPECTED.