Tuesday Night Bertha Update:

For the whole 5 days, I basically looked at the location of features like ridges and troughs to determine steering currents, which is how I determined which direction the storm would be moving on each day, and looked at the models for guidance on how fast the thing will be moving.
Discussion:
On Wednesday there will be a high to the east of Bertha, and a weakening high west of it, and a bit of a trough between them. Since Bertha is a deep storm, the upper level steering currents will be the main factors that will steer her. So, with the 500MB charts for Wednesday showing a high just of Bertha, Bertha should follow the backside of the high to the northwest. However, since Bertha will be moving into another high that will be in her path tomorrow, I kept Bertha slightly farther left than the model consensus. On Thursday, the setup will be similar. But, with Bertha a little farther north, the anticyclonic flow around the high to the ESE of her at that point will curve her a little more to the north. However, with a high still directly in the storm's path, the storm still cannot escape strait NNE out to sea yet, so I continued with a general NW motion Thursday. On Friday the high to Bertha's north that for the next couple days will keep the storm from racing NE out to sea will weaken and start moving off to the east as a S/W approaches this. This should allow Bertha to slowly curve even more to the north. And next weekend the ridge should be east of Bertha, and Bertha should continue to slowly follow the flow around the ridge to the N. This whole time steering currents will be weak and Bertha will be moving very slowly.
As for intensity on Wednesday shear will be modest, at 10-20 knots which should allow Bertha to hold her current strength and maybe get a little bit stronger, but after that shear will increase which should weaken Bertha.
0z Thu: 85-90
0z Fri: 75-80
0z Sat: 65-70
0z Sun: 55-60
0z Mon: 50-55