New Post Coming Fairly Soon

I know I haven't posted since Saturday, but I am usually pretty busy. The forecast I posted Saturday so far looks like it's going to verify halfway decently so I see no reason to sneak in an update, and there really aren't any major storms over the next couple days that need our attention, I'm not going to post because I don't have too much free time to work with...but on Friday (late in the day) I will have another detailed extended forecast.

So...Last Night I Laid out Where the Troughs and Ridges Would Be

Here are the regions the forecast discusion below covers...look for your region below...regions are bolded.

So now I am going to lay out what those troughs and ridges will do to the weather each part of the country will be seeing:
NW: Remaining dry and warming up through Wednesday. Then by Thursday, as everything starts shifting east you should start seeing some cooler and wetter weather from the trough that will be building over the NW. Cool and unsettled conditions should last through next weekend.
SW: What fall? Should remain warm and dry. Next weekend however as the trough really digs off the NW coast there could be enough moisture for some rain across northern California and Nevada.
Upper Midwest: There currently is a front moving through eastern MN/IA and into WI. That is bringing some showers/thunderstorms to that area today, and will continue to this afternoon, before clearing out and cooling off tonight...the rest of the Upper Midwest should remain dry with near normal temps today and tonight, but tomorrow a cold front will start pushing through. Expect some showers with the front but nothing too heavy. Behind the front it should dry out but will be much cooler, 10-15 (50s for highs) degrees below normal. There will likely some frosts/freezes over the Midwest Tuesday morning, especially over northern Minnesota. Tuesday will remain cool and dry but Wednesday another S/W will rotate around the cut-off low over Canada, so on Wednesday expect some clouds and maybe a few sprinkles, along with some breezy conditions. Then Wednesday night after the S/W comes through the bottom falls out and much of the upper Midwest sees frosts/freezes. Thursday will be dry but cool...Thursday night the winds will be even light than Wednesday night so we will be able to radiotionally cool down better Thursday night, so widespread HARD FREEZES are very possible Friday morning...but on Friday temps should rebound back into the 50s and will be dry, but again Friday night/Saturday morning there could be widespread freezes over the upper Midwest. By Sunday, the trough over the east will begin lifting out so temps should start to moderate. But, the trough and cool weather will take the Canadian high pressure with it, so the chances for precip will increase by next Sunday over the upper Midwest.
Southern Planes/Texas: The northern portions of this region (Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas) will see some showers and a cool down as the front moves through and a trough sets up over the east. But, the ridge over the west should prevent an extreme cool down, so frosts/freezes are unlikely anywhere in this region. Farther south over Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana the ridge over the west should extend into these areas, so they will remain dry and warm through the next week.
Great Lakes: The northern Lakes will be impacted by a cold front today, which will usher in some cooler air (highs in the 60s) and may cause a few showers/storms over northern MI/WI today/tonight as it passes, but nothing huge. The southern lakes should remain seasonable and dry today and Sunday, except for eastern OH, PA, and NY where an upper low over the east should cause some showers, heaviest over NY and central PA where over .5" may fall. Then on Monday things remain interesting, as a strong cold front approaches the western Lakes. On Monday western MI and WI should see scattered showers/storms as the front comes through, and Monday night those areas will cool into the 40s, and the northern/western Lakes could start seeing some Lake effect rain setting up. The rest of the lakes Monday will be dry and seasonable. But, on Tuesday the front will clear the rest of the lakes. Again, a few showers/storms and breezy conditions will be associated with the front, but moisture and instability will be limited so they won't get out of control. So, on Tuesday MI will be seeing clouds/showers and cool conditions (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s) as some lake effect continues through the day. The eastern Lakes region (OH, PA, NY) will see scattered storms, with temps being slightly above normal in western NY/PA as the front won't come through until later, and near to below normal in Ohio as they will see a morning frontal passage. Tuesday night there may be some light lake effect rain here and there, but nothing widespread as the air mass will be drying out some...temps in the 40s Tuesday night. Wednesday a shortwave (S/W) will start coming through the northern Lakes, giving those areas a very cool day with breezy, cloudy conditions and maybe some showers. Highs over the UP of Michigan may struggle to get to 50 Wednesday. The rest of the lakes (southern MI, OH, PA, NY) will be partly sunny with breezy conditions, and with highs in the lower 60s. But, by Thursday the S/W will reinforce the cold over all the lakes...so on Thursday expect mostly cloudy skies with showers over all of the lakes...expect highs in the mid-upper 40s over northern MI, lower-mid 50s over southern MI/northern NY, and mid-upper 50s over PA/OH. Now...as for frozen precip it could be cool enough for some sleet/snow to mix in over the UP of MI Thursday morning...surface temps will be in the upper 30s so nothing will stick...Thursday night the heart of the cold air will be in place...so...the UP of Michigan will likely see some snow showers Thursday night. Temps again will be in the mid-upper 30s so little if any snow will stick...even the northern portions of the southern peninsula of Michigan could see some snow/sleet mix in Thursday night, as well as areas downwind of Lake Huron over western Canada. Now, in southern MI, northern OH/NW PA, and western NY it should be warm enough for any precip to fall as rain. But, inland areas that won't see lake effect showers/clouds (SW Michigan, inland areas of northern Ohio, northern Indiana) could clear out enough to see frosts/freezes...so in the lakes Thursday night it will be a tale of lake effect rain (or snow) or frost/freezes. Friday with such cold air aloft all of the region will see instability showers popping up, with maybe a little snow mixed in over northern MI. Highs in the 50s. Saturday the lakes will start to moderate, but there could again be some light lake effect rain/snow over the northern Lakes Saturday morning, maybe a few sprinkles over the southern Lakes, and areas that don't see precip will again see frosts/freezes Saturday morning in the Great Lakes. Saturday highs will start rebounding, 50s and maybe lower 60s over the southern Lakes. Sunday should be a nice day. Any lake effect should be gone with highs in the 50s/60s.
Ohio Valley: Should remain fairly dry and seasonable through Sunday. The eastern portions of the OV however will see some rain this weekend from the upper low over the east. A cold front will sweep through Tuesday, bringing a slight chance of rain and a cool down. Wednesday will be dry but chilly, except for the mountains in WV/PA, where the mountains could ring out some moisture coming off the lakes and produce a few showers. Thursday will be more of the same. Chilly and mainly dry with highs in the 60s. Friday and Saturday morning there will be some frost over a lot of the region, with widespread frosts/freezes over central OH/IN. Otherwise things will remain dry and a little cool through the weekend.
Southeast: The SE is currently a little rainy and chilly, this should continue through the weekend (Sunday will be a little better but still not great). Monday-Tuesday should be dry/warm. The front will also sweep through the SE on Wednesday. Maybe an isolated shower/storm but nothing extreme or too severe. The end of the week and into the weekend will be a little cool, but still pleasant with highs ranging from the 60s in TN to the 70s over much of the region, and still some 80s over southern AL/GA/FL. Things should remain dry but cool over the weekend.
Northeast/Mid Atlantic: Will remain damp through the weekend, with highs in the 60s/70s. By Monday things should dry out and the region will see highs ranging from the lower 60s over northern Maine to the mid 70s near DC, with upper 60s and lower 70s in between. More of the same Tuesday. But, Tuesday night a front will sweep through the region. Expect a few showers along the front, but nothing widespread. By Wednesday temps will be much cooler, upper 50s over New England and to the west in the GLs, and lower-mid 60s in the I-95 corridor. Things should be pretty dry. On Thursday a S/W will reinforce the cooler air, so much of the region will be in the mid-upper 50s, with some 60s trying to hang on near the coast. Friday morning there will be widespread frosts/freezes in the interior regions of the NE. Friday will again be dry but cool, highs in the 50s/60s. More of the same through the weekend. Should be fairly dry but cool with highs in the 50s/60s during the day and lows in the 30s/40s at night with a lot of frost inland.

Weather Discussion Through Next Week

NOTE: SINCE BLOGGER SUCKS, THE IMAGES AREN'T SHOWING UP IN THE POST...SO YOU WILL HAVE TO CLICK ON LINKS...SORRY FOR THE INCONVINIENCE...(I removed the vulger language that once was here)...

Discussion Through Next Week

BEFORE READING: I WILL WARN YOU, THIS DISCUSSION IS VERY IN DEPTH AND MAY BE A LITTLE CONFUSING TO SOME, WHICH IS OK! IF SOMETHING CONFUSES YOU, READ MY NOTE AT THE END OF THE POST!

Large Scale Pattern:

Global Water Vapor With Stuff Drawn On It

Currently the water vapor is LIT UP with several key features that will determine the large scale pattern for this up coming week…lets look at them and see what they are expected to do:
-Upper low over eastern US. This will slowly start weakening and moving off to the NE over the next couple days as the S/W over the north central US picks it up. It will leave enough of a trough over the eastern US to allow the upper low and associated front to move through much of the Midwest/NE early next week, and really cool things off.
-The upper low to the SW of Alaska and over the Sea of Japan are going to be very important, as they are going to cause the two ridges over the Pacific to amplify. The one over the NW Pacific will continue to drift NE over the next couple days. It will take the northern branch with it, causing the ridge over the western Pacific to grow northward. The ridge building will cause the upper low to the NE of the ridge (SW of Alaska) to drift more to the south, causing a trough over the central Pacific. The upper low drifting south will amplify the ridge over the East Pac/western US, and it will be oriented more N-S. This will cause the northern Branch to blast into Canada moving SSW-NNE, so it will be tapping the Arctic air. The amplification of the ridge over the eastern Pac will coincide well with the AO and NAO going negative. This will cause the northern branch, which is moving well north into Canada and tapping arctic air to dive back to the south over the eastern US, causing a trough over the east.
-Described above is an amplified pattern…it will consist of a ridge over the western Pacific, trough over the central Pacific, ridge over east Pac and western US, a trough diving into eastern US, and the westerlies south over much of the Atlantic basin, which will impact tropical activity, which I will get to later.
-Now, this pattern will take a couple days to fully develop…but by Sunday night it should pretty much in place, and the upper low/cold front currently off the Pac NW coast will start moving through the northern US and bringing the coldest air mass of the season with it…
Here is what the set up will look like by Monday:

What the pattern will look like on Monday

Things will be starting to amplify more over North America. And, as you can see an upper low and trailing cold front will begin dropping down into the northern US, and will bring a pattern change. Now, you may be wondering: How come the S/W currently moving through the northern US isn’t going to cause a large trough in the east and cause a pattern shift?

500MB analysis for Friday evening at 9PM EDT

Well, currently the pattern is a little more zonal. So, the S/W is moving more W-E than anything. Also, the upper low over the SE US is currently amplifying the ridging over the western Atlantic/NE US, which is causing the jet to move north back into Canada. So, this S/W is just going to give the NE US a glancing blow.

As mentioned above, over the next couple days what will happen is the upper low over the east will weaken and move east some, causing the ridging over the Atlantic move more to the east. Also, the pattern over the Pacific will be amplifying. So, we will get the northern branch diving down towards the NE US a little bit, instead of being deflected more to the north, so the S/W will move farther south than the current one. Also, the S/W will be stronger than the one currently moving just north of the US…

Before we move any farther, lets time the front that the S/W will drag through early next week and discuss its impacts:
Timing the cool down:

Timing the front

Here is the timing of the front…here is what to expect with the frontal passage:
-Some clouds and showers. The front will be strong and will add lift, but there will be some ridging ahead of the front limiting moisture return.
-Some gusty winds. It is a strong front, so winds could gust as it comes through.
Here is what to expect after the front passes through:
-Temps 5-15 degrees below normal.
-Some frost in interior portions of the NE, the GLs, and Midwest.
-Partly cloudy skies. Cool air aloft will cause some instability but little moisture behind the front. Maybe some lake effect rain showers, but nothing extreme.

As we get towards Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper low that will drag the front through will likely run into the –NAO block, stall out, become negatively tilted, and strengthen into a large cut-off upper low over Hudson Bay. This will cause the trough over the east to really deepen, and will also cause weak S/Ws to rotate down through the GLs, which will bring continually cooler air and will cause an increase in lake effect rain, and maybe some mixed precip over the northern lakes. (we’ll cross that bridge when we get there). But, all you need to know is that if you live in the NE, expect cool and unsettled weather from when the front goes through Tuesday/Tuesday night into the weekend. But, by the week of the fifth the cut off over Hudson bay will finally start to shift east…as the pattern continues to change…let me briefly touch on what the pattern will do Tuesday-next weekend:

On Tuesday we will still have the same setup…ridge in western Pac, trough in the middle, ridge in the eastern Pac/western US, trough developing in the east, and some ridging over the Atlantic. But, now we need to think back to the huge upper low currently over the Sea of Japan. Currently it is amplifying the ridge over the western Pacific as it slowly moves around the ridge. By Monday and into Tuesday, that upper low will be working around the northern side of the ridge. As that happens, it will cause the ridge to flatten and spread east some. This will nudge the upper low/trough over the central Pacific east, which will shove the ridge over the western US east, and by the weekend will start pushing the trough over the east to the east. By the end of next weekend, the trough that originally will be in the central Pacific will be over the western US, and the ridge that will be building over the western US will start pushing east, although with a –NAO the trough over the east will be stubborn to get out, so the ridge will start getting flattened by the trough over the east, which will slowly start moving out next weekend…this is where I will leave off…the end of next weekend…and pick it up from there tomorrow…

Now, earlier I mentioned I would get to tropics…right now, there is Kyle. Kyle is a strong TS, and may become a minimal hurricane. It may clip SE New England and will be going into Nova Scotia. There is also a tropical wave in the Atlantic, which the NHC is giving a 20%> of developing over the next 48 hours…currently it is lacking heavy thunderstorm activity, and is being impacted by shear, that won’t be going away for a few more days. So, this system likely won’t become anything significant over the weekend. If it does happen to develop, currently the ridge over the Atlantic is strong, so the wave should continue moving to the WNW for the next few days. But, later next week as the trough digs over the eastern US, if there is anything left of this system the trough should wisp it out to sea…

NOW, I UNDERSTAND HOW SOME OF YOU MAY BE A BIT CONFUSED, AS THERE WAS A LOT OF STUFF IN THAT POST AND SOME OF IT WAS A LITTLE COMPLICATED. SO, IF YOU ARE CONFUSED, PLEASE, LEAVE A COMMENT BELOW THE POST. IF I GET ANY COMMENTS I WILL PROBABLY MAKE AN EDUCATIONAL POST AT SOME POINT TOMORROW OR SUNDAY, SO WE ALL CAN LEARN. IF YOU ARE CONFUSED, LEAVE A FRICKIN COMMENT ABOUT WHAT YOU ARE CONFUSED ON! THAT IS WHY THERE IS A PLACE TO LEAVE COMMENTS BELOW EACH POST!

Hello folks! Welcome to my Blog! A new Winter is Closing on us!

During the summer I really got lazy and didn't post on here all that often...mainly because I was pissed because the format for pictures in a blog post infuriates me...anyway...I am going to start posting here much more often...now...this year I am not going to have a lot of free time...a lot of homework every night...but I should still be able to post whenever things get interesting weather wise...here are some new things I will be trying this year:
-3 to 7 day discussions, to discuss the pattern in the medium range and possible upcoming storms.
-7 to 14 day discussions, to discuss the longer range pattern, and maybe hype up a storm...maybe...
-Also, I want YOU to get involved...a lot of us who read the blog are weather enthusiasts who are still learning...which is GREAT! It's awesome that you guys want to learn more...so...if you have a question...about anything...please utilize the "comment" button below each post and ask a question if you have it...I will be more than happy to answer any questions...

So, check back often, ask questions, and enjoy reading! I will likely have my first post with real substance Friday...