Saturday, September 27, 2008

So...Last Night I Laid out Where the Troughs and Ridges Would Be


Here are the regions the forecast discusion below covers...look for your region below...regions are bolded.

So now I am going to lay out what those troughs and ridges will do to the weather each part of the country will be seeing:
NW: Remaining dry and warming up through Wednesday. Then by Thursday, as everything starts shifting east you should start seeing some cooler and wetter weather from the trough that will be building over the NW. Cool and unsettled conditions should last through next weekend.
SW: What fall? Should remain warm and dry. Next weekend however as the trough really digs off the NW coast there could be enough moisture for some rain across northern California and Nevada.
Upper Midwest: There currently is a front moving through eastern MN/IA and into WI. That is bringing some showers/thunderstorms to that area today, and will continue to this afternoon, before clearing out and cooling off tonight...the rest of the Upper Midwest should remain dry with near normal temps today and tonight, but tomorrow a cold front will start pushing through. Expect some showers with the front but nothing too heavy. Behind the front it should dry out but will be much cooler, 10-15 (50s for highs) degrees below normal. There will likely some frosts/freezes over the Midwest Tuesday morning, especially over northern Minnesota. Tuesday will remain cool and dry but Wednesday another S/W will rotate around the cut-off low over Canada, so on Wednesday expect some clouds and maybe a few sprinkles, along with some breezy conditions. Then Wednesday night after the S/W comes through the bottom falls out and much of the upper Midwest sees frosts/freezes. Thursday will be dry but cool...Thursday night the winds will be even light than Wednesday night so we will be able to radiotionally cool down better Thursday night, so widespread HARD FREEZES are very possible Friday morning...but on Friday temps should rebound back into the 50s and will be dry, but again Friday night/Saturday morning there could be widespread freezes over the upper Midwest. By Sunday, the trough over the east will begin lifting out so temps should start to moderate. But, the trough and cool weather will take the Canadian high pressure with it, so the chances for precip will increase by next Sunday over the upper Midwest.
Southern Planes/Texas: The northern portions of this region (Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas) will see some showers and a cool down as the front moves through and a trough sets up over the east. But, the ridge over the west should prevent an extreme cool down, so frosts/freezes are unlikely anywhere in this region. Farther south over Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana the ridge over the west should extend into these areas, so they will remain dry and warm through the next week.
Great Lakes: The northern Lakes will be impacted by a cold front today, which will usher in some cooler air (highs in the 60s) and may cause a few showers/storms over northern MI/WI today/tonight as it passes, but nothing huge. The southern lakes should remain seasonable and dry today and Sunday, except for eastern OH, PA, and NY where an upper low over the east should cause some showers, heaviest over NY and central PA where over .5" may fall. Then on Monday things remain interesting, as a strong cold front approaches the western Lakes. On Monday western MI and WI should see scattered showers/storms as the front comes through, and Monday night those areas will cool into the 40s, and the northern/western Lakes could start seeing some Lake effect rain setting up. The rest of the lakes Monday will be dry and seasonable. But, on Tuesday the front will clear the rest of the lakes. Again, a few showers/storms and breezy conditions will be associated with the front, but moisture and instability will be limited so they won't get out of control. So, on Tuesday MI will be seeing clouds/showers and cool conditions (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s) as some lake effect continues through the day. The eastern Lakes region (OH, PA, NY) will see scattered storms, with temps being slightly above normal in western NY/PA as the front won't come through until later, and near to below normal in Ohio as they will see a morning frontal passage. Tuesday night there may be some light lake effect rain here and there, but nothing widespread as the air mass will be drying out some...temps in the 40s Tuesday night. Wednesday a shortwave (S/W) will start coming through the northern Lakes, giving those areas a very cool day with breezy, cloudy conditions and maybe some showers. Highs over the UP of Michigan may struggle to get to 50 Wednesday. The rest of the lakes (southern MI, OH, PA, NY) will be partly sunny with breezy conditions, and with highs in the lower 60s. But, by Thursday the S/W will reinforce the cold over all the lakes...so on Thursday expect mostly cloudy skies with showers over all of the lakes...expect highs in the mid-upper 40s over northern MI, lower-mid 50s over southern MI/northern NY, and mid-upper 50s over PA/OH. Now...as for frozen precip it could be cool enough for some sleet/snow to mix in over the UP of MI Thursday morning...surface temps will be in the upper 30s so nothing will stick...Thursday night the heart of the cold air will be in place...so...the UP of Michigan will likely see some snow showers Thursday night. Temps again will be in the mid-upper 30s so little if any snow will stick...even the northern portions of the southern peninsula of Michigan could see some snow/sleet mix in Thursday night, as well as areas downwind of Lake Huron over western Canada. Now, in southern MI, northern OH/NW PA, and western NY it should be warm enough for any precip to fall as rain. But, inland areas that won't see lake effect showers/clouds (SW Michigan, inland areas of northern Ohio, northern Indiana) could clear out enough to see frosts/freezes...so in the lakes Thursday night it will be a tale of lake effect rain (or snow) or frost/freezes. Friday with such cold air aloft all of the region will see instability showers popping up, with maybe a little snow mixed in over northern MI. Highs in the 50s. Saturday the lakes will start to moderate, but there could again be some light lake effect rain/snow over the northern Lakes Saturday morning, maybe a few sprinkles over the southern Lakes, and areas that don't see precip will again see frosts/freezes Saturday morning in the Great Lakes. Saturday highs will start rebounding, 50s and maybe lower 60s over the southern Lakes. Sunday should be a nice day. Any lake effect should be gone with highs in the 50s/60s.
Ohio Valley: Should remain fairly dry and seasonable through Sunday. The eastern portions of the OV however will see some rain this weekend from the upper low over the east. A cold front will sweep through Tuesday, bringing a slight chance of rain and a cool down. Wednesday will be dry but chilly, except for the mountains in WV/PA, where the mountains could ring out some moisture coming off the lakes and produce a few showers. Thursday will be more of the same. Chilly and mainly dry with highs in the 60s. Friday and Saturday morning there will be some frost over a lot of the region, with widespread frosts/freezes over central OH/IN. Otherwise things will remain dry and a little cool through the weekend.
Southeast: The SE is currently a little rainy and chilly, this should continue through the weekend (Sunday will be a little better but still not great). Monday-Tuesday should be dry/warm. The front will also sweep through the SE on Wednesday. Maybe an isolated shower/storm but nothing extreme or too severe. The end of the week and into the weekend will be a little cool, but still pleasant with highs ranging from the 60s in TN to the 70s over much of the region, and still some 80s over southern AL/GA/FL. Things should remain dry but cool over the weekend.
Northeast/Mid Atlantic: Will remain damp through the weekend, with highs in the 60s/70s. By Monday things should dry out and the region will see highs ranging from the lower 60s over northern Maine to the mid 70s near DC, with upper 60s and lower 70s in between. More of the same Tuesday. But, Tuesday night a front will sweep through the region. Expect a few showers along the front, but nothing widespread. By Wednesday temps will be much cooler, upper 50s over New England and to the west in the GLs, and lower-mid 60s in the I-95 corridor. Things should be pretty dry. On Thursday a S/W will reinforce the cooler air, so much of the region will be in the mid-upper 50s, with some 60s trying to hang on near the coast. Friday morning there will be widespread frosts/freezes in the interior regions of the NE. Friday will again be dry but cool, highs in the 50s/60s. More of the same through the weekend. Should be fairly dry but cool with highs in the 50s/60s during the day and lows in the 30s/40s at night with a lot of frost inland.

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