Daily Bertha Update

18z=2PM EDT

Since I wrote this discussion earlier in the day, I will update that microwave imagery shows a developing eye and improving inner core, and the IR/water vapor are also showing an eye trying to form, so I have upped the intensity forecast.

Discussion:
This afternoon Bertha may have re-formed a little farther northward under the deepest convection, and appears to be getting stronger. Now, for my path, I continued the general brisk WNW motion it is on now for the next couple days because there will be nothing to really change the direction of the storm, as it will continue tracking along the southern side of the mid-level ridge. However, late Tuesday a S/W will be moving well north of the system. It will weaken the ridge a little and may increase shear a little over the system Tuesday, so starting Tuesday I will show a slightly more north component in the path. On Thursday another S/W will move off the east coast. This will again weaken the ridge, and pull Bertha even more to the north. Now, there are a few questions here. Will the S/W be strong enough to wisp Bertha safely out to sea? Or will the ridge build back quick enough to trap Bertha just off the SE coast until the next S/W breaks down the ridge? The answers to these questions will depend on the strength of Bertha, the strength of the S/W, and the exact location of Bertha. A weaker Bertha would likely be trapped by the ridge building back, but a Bertha that is stronger and maybe a little farther NW would probably go out to sea without getting trapped by the ridge. But again, the answers to those questions are uncertain, so on my track I showed a slowing of Bertha towards the end of the week and a turn to the N. But again, after Wednesday things are a little uncertain. However, the threat to the US has gone down, because Bertha either goes out to sea safely, or if it does get trapped, which has a lower chance of happening there will be ridging off the SE coast and over the GOM, which should keep Bertha from drifting into the US. So, I will put the chances of Bertha hitting the US at 15%, and the chance of it impacting Bermuda at 50%.
For the intensity forecast, over the next couple days warmer SSTs and low shear should allow for a gradual strengthening. However, there will be a couple S/Ws tracking north of the storm (as mentioned above) after Tuesday, which will occasionally increase shear. While the current indications are the shear shouldn't tear Bertha apart, it may slow or even halt development.
18z Mon: 75-80MPH
18z Tue: 85-90MPH
18z Wed: 90-95MPH
18z Thu: 85-90MPH
18z Fri: 85-90MPH

Saturday Night Bertha Update

Since my discussion was written at around 5PM, I will update, that since then another burst of convection has fired over or just north of the center of circulation over the last few hours, and you can see that on the IR satellite image that I posted above. Now for my full forecast discussion: (18z on the projected path is 2PM EDT):

Discussion:

Today, Bertha has continued to move slightly north of west, at 20-22MPH, and has gotten a little better organized, as it has moved west of the drier, African air that had been choking it yesterday, the modest shear let up, and it is starting to move over warm sea surface temps (SSTs). This general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 or so hours, as Bertha continues to move south of a mid level ridge over much of the northern Atlantic. However, in 2-3 days, a trough will move north of Bertha. This should not be enough to re-curve Bertha out to sea, but it should bend Bertha a little more to the north. Than, in 5-7 days a S/W will start moving off the east coast, and should create enough of a weakness in the high to start steering Bertha more to the NW, and could be enough to re-curve her out to sea. I am still not going to rule out a US landfall, or close brush from Bertha, because the trough may end up missing Bertha or being weaker, but it is starting to look like the chances of a US landfall have gone down a little. I am not going to put the chance of a US landfall, or a very near miss at about 30% now, which is down a little from what I though earlier today and yesterday. I am holding the chance of Bertha passing within 100 miles of Bermuda at 40%.

As for the intensity forecast, low shear and favorable SSTs should support a gradual strengthening to a weak CAT 1 hurricane by some time on Monday. After Monday, some shear will start impacting Bertha. Not as much as models like the GFS earlier advertised, but probably around 20 knots, which should keep Bertha from getting too strong, and may even weaken the storm a little bit. Here is my intensity forecast:

18z Sun: 55-60MPH

18z Mon: 70-75MPH

18z Tue: 75-80MPH18z

Wed: 70-75MPH18z

Thu: 65-70MPH

In summary, this storm bares watching, especially for Bermuda, but is not cause for panic at all, because a direct hit from a destructive hurricane is NOT EXPECTED.

Update on Bertha: Long Term Track Still Uncertain

Well, here is your daily scoop on tropical storm Bertha. (on the projected path, 18z is 2PM EDT) Before I get to the brief forecast discussion, lets look at what Bertha is going through now. The first image is microwave imagery, showing the center is not as well defined and that most of the deep convection is getting sheared to the north of the center. This also shows up on the IR, as the storm has a sheared, a-symmetrical storm. Now for the forecast track and intensity discussion:

Over the next few days a strong mid-level ridge over the northern Atlantic will continue to steer Bertha to the west-northwest. However, late Monday a weakness will develop in the ridge. The models cannot decide how strong this weakness will be and how Bertha will respond to this. A stronger Bertha responds more and re-curves out to sea much quicker. However, it looks like wind shear could be doing a number on Bertha by the time this weakness in the ridge develops, and this could keep Bertha from being strong enough to respond to the ridge, thus, the vast majority of the models are showing Bertha taking a more southern track, perhaps towards the US east coast or Bermuda. Considering the models continue to trend towards a southern track, I have shifted my projected path southward to the models. If my track verifies I give the storm a 40% chance of coming within 100 miles of Bermuda, and a 40% chance of coming very close to or hitting the US before curving out to sea. So basically I think this thing could go either way, and needs to be watched. As for intensities, over the next day dry air off of Africa, around 15 knots of shear, and marginal Sea Surface Temps (SSTs) will keep Bertha around the same strength she is now. However, later Saturday though Sunday and into Monday, Bertha will experience warmer SSTs, lower shear, and more moisture in the air. This should allow for a gradual strengthening to a strong TS or weak CAT 1 by Monday. But, starting Monday it appears Bertha may feel the affects of some wind shear. The models are undecided on much shear there will be and how much it will weaken Bertha, but considering this is an early season Cape Verde storm, with marginal SSTs I believe the shear will have a negative impact on Bertha, especially if the shear is as strong as some models indicate (30-40 knots). Here are my approximate forecast coordinates and intensities for the next 5 days:

18z Sat: 37.5 W, 17N. 50-55MPH

18z Sun: 46 W, 19N. 60-65MPH

18z Mon: 51.5 W, 20.8N. 70-75MPH

18z Tue: 58 W, 22.5N. 60-65MPH

18z Wed: 63.5 W, 24.5N. 55-60MPH

Fourth of July Thunderstorm Outlook:

There will be a lot of fireworks Friday, with quite a few of them coming from Mother Nature. The map above shows where thunderstorms are possible, and the severe weather risk. (the percentages are for severe wx) If you live in the shaded in areas rain/thunder may affect your fireworks so check your radar throughout the day in case storms do fire!

Bertha Info

On Thursday morning at 11AM EDT, tropical storm Berth was named. This is the first storm to be named this far east this early in the hurricane season. As of this evening Bertha is looking pretty healthy via the satellite image I posted above. So, it looks like it is slowly intensifying. I also posted my "projected path" of Bertha for the next 5 days. (18z is 2PM). The main determining factor to the future path of Bertha is a ridge of high pressure sitting over much of the northern Atlantic, and how much it breaks down and allows Bertha to re-curve. How much this ridge breaks down and allows Bertha to re-curve depends on how strong Bertha gets. The stronger it is the faster it re-curves. Forecast models like the GFS and GFDL are strengthening the storm fastest, and have the fastest curve out to sea, while models like the EURO and UKMET are much weaker and much farther south. Based on the sea surface temps (SSTs) that the storm will encounter over the next couple days, I believe the storm will not strengthen as much as some models are showing, so I do not think it will curve north as far north as the GFS and GFDL are advertising. So, for my path I went just south of the model consensus for the re-curve out to sea. This storm may come close to Bermuda down the road, but I do not believe this storm poses a threat to the US or Canada for that matter.

Thursday Severe

I do not see a huge outbreak Thursday, but in the NE ahead of the front there will be some morning sunshine and moisture in place, which will allow CAPEs to approach 1500 and LIs to range from -2 to -4. This will allow widespread convection to fire in the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Instability will be by no means great, but with a lot of shear in place I believe some storms will become severe. I know Matt and the SPC mentioned supercells due to the shear, but with instability pretty low I believe the threat for supercells is low. However, I believe that storms will try to organize into line segments, with slightly enhanced wind damage threats due to the stronger winds aloft. But again, with limited instability in place only a few storms will get strong enough to tap the stronger winds aloft and produce damaging winds. I cannot rule out a little bit of hail in the stronger storms but nothing huge hail wise is expected. In the morning if things look slightly more unstable I may need to add a 30% risk area, but at this time I give that a small chance of happening. Thursday I will have a in depth analysis of the two invests in the Atlantic, which may develop into tropical cyclones.

I Foregot What Day of the Week it is! This is for WEDNESDAY'S SEVERE

Wind shear, moisture, instability appear to be all favorable for a decent bought of severe wx on Wednesday into Wednesday night. MI is a bit of a question as moisture will be lagging there a bit, but it appears that by late in the day dews will be well into the 60s, which will allow CAPEs to increase to 1000-2000 over MI, and 2000-4000 over southern WI, IA, IL, and parts of MO, and LIs will also be -3 to -6 over MI, and -5 to -9 or lower over the rest of the higher risk areas for severe. This should allow widespread storms to develop and quickly become severe, and with decent shear in place damaging winds appear to be a large threat with many of the storms tomorrow. With the strong flow aloft I believe the storms will organize into squall lines with an enhanced damaging with threat. These areas of storms could organize into a MCS or two, which is indicated by the latest NAM and GFS. The SPC goes along with this adea as of the Day 2 outlook (I will probably be out cold by the new Day 1 outlook comes out). With the amount of instability, shear and slightly cooler air aloft, hail may also be a threat along few tornadoes. However, I do not foresee a large tornado outbreak.
NOTE: I am going to hold off on the moderate risk.
NOTE: I am going to again post all my forecasts that I usually post on the accu wx forums here, along with coverage of other major weather related events.

More Details Come Out About Boy Scout Camp, KSU Tornado, and Chapman Tornadoes

Remains of a ranger's house at the Little Sioux Scout Ranch can be seen after a tornado ripped through the Little Sioux Scout Ranch in the remote Loess Hills, Iowa Wednesday June 11, 2008.

(AP Photo/Loren Sawyer - Onawa Sentinel)

By TIMBERLY ROSS, Associated Press Writer 7 minutes ago

BLENCOE, Iowa - Boy Scouts who came to the aid of their colleagues after a tornado that killed four of their comrades and injured 48 people were hailed as heroes Thursday for helping to administer first aid and search for victims buried in their flattened campsite.

Iowa rescue workers cut through downed branches and dug through debris amid rain and lightning Wednesday night to reach the camp where the 93 boys, ages 13 to 18, had huddled for safety through the twister. They and 25 staff members were attending a weeklong leadership training camp.

Lloyd Roitstein, an executive with the Mid America Council of the Boy Scouts of America, reminded reporters at a news conference Thursday that the Boy Scouts motto is "Be Prepared."

"Last night, the agencies and the scouts were prepared," he said. "They knew what to do, they knew where to go, and they prepared well."

Iowa Gov. Chet Culver praised the boys for "taking care of each other."

Tornadoes also raked Kansas on Wednesday, killing at least two people, destroying much of the small town of Chapman and causing extensive damage on the Kansas State University campus.

The tornado through the camp killed three 13-year-olds and one 14-year-old, Roitstein said. A tornado siren went off at the camp, but the scouts had already taken cover before the siren sounded. There was no time to remove them from the isolated retreat, he said.

The boys had been in two groups when the storm hit the Little Sioux Scout Ranch in the Loess Hills. One group managed to take shelter, while the other was out hiking.

At least 42 of the injured remained hospitalized Thursday morning, with everything from cuts and bruises to major head trauma, said Gene Meyer, Iowa's public safety commissioner.

Four were hospitalized in serious but stable condition, officials said.

All the scouts and staff were accounted for, Meyer said, adding that searchers were making another pass through the grounds to make sure no one else was injured. The camp was destroyed.

Thomas White, a scout supervisor, said he dug through the wreckage of a collapsed fireplace to reach victims in a building where many scouts were seeking shelter when the twister struck at about 6:35 p.m.

"A bunch of us got together and started undoing the rubble from the fireplace and stuff and waiting for the first responders," White told KMTV in Omaha, Neb. "They were under the tables and stuff and on their knees, but they had no chance."

The nearest tornado siren, in nearby Blencoe, sounded only briefly after the storm cut power to the town, said Russ Lawrenson of the Mondamin Fire Department.

Taylor Willoughby, 13, said several scouts were getting ready to watch a movie when someone screamed that there was a tornado. Everyone hunkered down, he said, and windows shattered.

"It sounded like a jet that was flying by really close," Taylor told NBC's "Today" on Thursday. "I was hoping that we all made it out OK. I was afraid for my life."

Ethan Hession, also 13, said he crawled under a table with his friend.

"I just remember looking over at my friend, and all of a sudden he just says to me, `Dear God, save us,'" he told "Today." "Then I just closed my eyes and all of a sudden it's (the tornado) gone."

Ethan said the scouts' first-aid training immediately compelled them to act.

"We knew that we need to place tourniquets on wounds that were bleeding too much. We knew we need to apply pressure and gauze. We had first-aid kits, we had everything," he said.

Ethan said one staff member took off his shirt and put it on someone who was bleeding to apply pressure and gauze. Other scouts started digging people out of the rubble, he said.

The injured were taken to Burgess Health Center in Onawa, Alegent Health Clinic in Missouri Valley and Creighton University Medical Center in Omaha.

The 1,800-acre ranch about 40 miles north of Omaha includes hiking trails through narrow valleys and over steep hills, a 15-acre lake and a rifle range.

The tornado touched down as Iowa's eastern half grappled with flooding in several cities. The storm threatened to stretch Iowa's emergency response teams even further.

Iowa Homeland Security spokeswoman Julie Tack said officials were confident the state's emergency response teams could handle the crisis because western Iowa had been largely unaffected by the recent flooding.

Along the Mississippi River in Missouri and Illinois, the National Weather Service was predicting the worst flooding in 15 years. Outlying areas could be inundated, but most of the towns are protected by levees and many low-lying property owners were bought out after massive flooding in 1993, officials said.

Meanwhile, a line of tornadoes cut a diagonal swath across Kansas, causing widespread damage.

Chapman, a Dickinson County town of about 1,400, appeared to be hardest hit.

Brad Homman, director of administration and emergency services for Dickinson County, said Thursday morning that about 100 homes were destroyed or damaged when the twister struck around 10:30 p.m. Wednesday.

"We have no electricity or water or gas at this point," Hammon told reporters in a briefing. "It may be days before it's restored."

Three critically injured residents were at Geary Community Hospital in nearby Junction City, while dozens of what Homman called "walking wounded" suffered cuts, bruises, scrapes and broken bones.

One victim was found in a yard in Chapman, said Sharon Watson, spokeswoman for the Kansas Adjutant General's Department. The other Kansas victim was found outside a mobile home in the Jackson County town of Soldier, Watson said.

The tornado that struck Kansas State University's campus in Manhattan destroyed a wind erosion laboratory and heavily damaged a fraternity house. Debris littered the campus, and classes were canceled, but the university reported no injuries.

___

Associated Press writers Henry C. Jackson in Des Moines, Iowa; Anna Jo Bratton in Onawa, Iowa; and John Hanna in Chapman, Kan., contributed to this report.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/severe_weather;_ylt=AnhbfJhkyMxHrtfTkIW09zys0NUE

This Evening Has Already Been Devestating...But Wait? Did A Heavily Populated Area Just Get Hit?

First, more details on the Boy Scout Camp that was hit:
"By Kay Henderson
DES MOINES, Iowa, June 11 (Reuters) - Four people were killed and at least 20 injured when a tornado tore through an Iowa boy scout camp on Wednesday, where dozens of scouts were gathered for a summer retreat, state officials said.
The deadly twister was one of more than 30 that roared through four U.S. Midwestern states on Wednesday. It hit the Little Sioux Scout Ranch in western Iowa about 6:35 p.m. CDT (2135 GMT). More tornadoes were feared for the region Wednesday night.
Ninety-three campers and 25 adults were attending the Little Sioux camp when the tornado struck, said Tina Potthoff, spokeswoman for the Iowa Emergency Operations Center. Potthoff said in addition to the four dead, at least 20 and possibly up to 40 people were injured.
Injured campers were taken to five area hospitals as parents of campers gathered Wednesday night in a nearby church awaiting news and search and rescue teams continued to sift through debris at the camp.
Iowa officials said the state National Guard had been mobilized to assist in search and rescue operations, work that was complicated by the heavily treed area where the camp was located and continued lightning strikes and heavy rain.
The scouts had been attending an annual "Pohuk Pride" weeklong junior leader training event at the 1,800-acre ranch, which has four cabin shelters, a 15-acre lake, a rifle range and six hiking trails.
"We are profoundly saddened ... our heart goes out to all of the families and the children affected by this horrific tragedy," said Gov. Chet Culver.
At least two tornado warnings were issued for the Little Sioux area before the twister struck. State officials said they did not know if there were any warning sirens operating at the camp, however.
The tornado was one of more than 30 reported late Wednesday moving across eastern Kansas into Nebraska, Iowa and into Minnesota, according to Storm Prediction Center.
The tornadoes were accompanied by baseball-sized hail and vicious winds, and came in addition to rampant flooding that has forced hundreds from their homes in Iowa.
Culver has declared 54 of Iowa's 99 counties disaster areas due to damage from the flooding and tornadoes.
Violent weather continued to wrack the region late Wednesday night with tornado watches issued for areas of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri, Iowa and Kansas, the Storm Prediction Center said.
"We still have a threat of tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging wind gusts," said Storm Prediction Center meteorologist Steve Weiss.
"We do have severe weather in the U.S. and we do our best to alert people but sometimes it can be tragic," Weiss said. (Additional reporting by Carey Gillam in Kansas City; editing by Philip Barbara) "
(http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN1133603920080612?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true)

Also, a nursing home was hit on the south side of Salina, KS but ATTM no injuries have been reported.

Also, Chapman, KS reportedly experienced major damage and injuries.

It also looks like Manhattan, KS, where the KSU campus is located (I believe) just took a major hit.

Again, a lot of these stories are still developing, and more may come out. But it is after midnight local time and I have to get up early so I will resume coverage on this devastating evening tomorrow morning.

Also...IA Area Experiencing Flooding

As you can see a bad flood situation as storms develop in the circle area and continue to train to the NNE, bringing lots of heavy rains. This could be another flooding disaster in a week full of them in WI, IL, IN, MI, and now IA. This has been a very bad severe wx season.

-Also a tornado reportedly hit a nursing home near Salina, KS. Damage and injuries unknown...this is a nightmare severe weather outbreak this evening with a tornado potentially hitting a nursing home full of helpless people and another tornado hitting a camp full of Boy Scouts.

Boy Scout Camp Hit By Tornado

"DES MOINES - The National Weather Service has received reports of injuries and possibly fatalities from an apparent tornado that struck a Boy Scout camp in western Iowa.
Meteorologist Jim Meyer says law enforcement officials had called the weather service Wednesday evening and reported injuries and damage at the Little Sioux Scout Ranch.
Meyer said: "We believe there were some fatalities and injuries."
A dispatcher with the Harrison County sheriff's department in Iowa says first responders are at the camp and more are en route. She isn't confirming reports of injuries."
(Associated Press)
I apologize for being away from my computer for several days now, but I knew there would be a bad tornado outbreak today and when I got on I heard terrible news. A tornado struck a Boy Scout camp, doing heavy damage and ATM the sketchy details point to at least 4 deaths and 20+ injuries. This is very saddening news considering I was a Boy Scout just a couple years ago and will have more updates if not later this evening than tomorrow morning.

Correction: Dozens of injuries, at least 20 serious, and 3 of them traumatic. This is an extremely bad situation and the news continues to get worse.

Radar of Chicago Area Tornado(s)

I have saved all the radar images of the tornadic storm that tore through the south side of Chicago this evening. The tornado war reported to be a multiple vortex that at times was a half mile wide or greater. Early reports are sketchy but this tornado went through very heavily populated areas and reports are indicating that homes have been destroyed. More on this shortly.

South Side Getting Rocked

I have not been able to monitor the severe wx much over the last few days, but I am coming back to a very dangerous situation:
A storm is churning through the heavily populated south side of Chicago. A large and damaging tornado has been reported off and on for half an hour before this post. I will have another update as more info comes in.

Brief Update

I have been very busy this week, and have one more day of it, so I have not been able to update nearly as much as I would like. So today instead of whipping up a quick, potentially bad outlook I will direct you to the SPC site, where you can keep track of their severe outlooks and all the watches. I would recommend this because a severe weather outbreak is expected in the Planes. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Wednesday/Wednesday Night Severe

More significant severe weather is possible tomorrow, and Chicago has moved into the threat zone for this one. It looks like things will be getting very unstable tomorrow in the moderate risk zone, with super cells developing there starting in late afternoon, and shifting east tomorrow night with another MCS possibly developing. I will have an update on this tomorrow afternoon.

PS: This evening I have heard possible reports of major damage/injuries from tonight's tornadoes. Due to a lack of time I haven't gotten a good chance to look at that and won't until late tomorrow, but I'm sure that your local news stations may be covering it if there are deaths/major damage reported.

Huge Severe Outbreak Ongoing

As expected, a huge severe weather outbreak with tornadoes has developed this evening, however it is farther south than outlined this morning. So, this evening and tonight storms will continue over the same areas they are now, with a flooding and severe threat throughout the night. Tomorrow, the front will drift a little farther north, with more severe weather possible on this. Forecast for that coming soon.

Tornado Outbreak Followed By Derecho Late Today

A moderate risk for severe storms has been issued by the SPC today. I have and still am extremely busy, so cannot cover these storms like I would like, but it looks like in the western and central moderate risk storms, likely super cells with a tornado threat will develop by early evening, and move east across the rest of the moderate risk this evening, while transitioning into more of a derecho with a damaging wind threat. Another update late this evening.

Monday Severe

There have been some problems with the models updating today, so I will not be making my own severe weather outlook. There are other sources of information that I use like, different severe weather parameters like "significant tornado parameter" and stuff like that to supplement my outlooks, but considering I have only been using those parameters to supplement my outlooks for a couple of months, it would not be a good idea to use them to make an outlook, without the original model data. I do expect to make an outlook for Tuesday tomorrow evening, hopefully.