Bertha Info

On Thursday morning at 11AM EDT, tropical storm Berth was named. This is the first storm to be named this far east this early in the hurricane season. As of this evening Bertha is looking pretty healthy via the satellite image I posted above. So, it looks like it is slowly intensifying. I also posted my "projected path" of Bertha for the next 5 days. (18z is 2PM). The main determining factor to the future path of Bertha is a ridge of high pressure sitting over much of the northern Atlantic, and how much it breaks down and allows Bertha to re-curve. How much this ridge breaks down and allows Bertha to re-curve depends on how strong Bertha gets. The stronger it is the faster it re-curves. Forecast models like the GFS and GFDL are strengthening the storm fastest, and have the fastest curve out to sea, while models like the EURO and UKMET are much weaker and much farther south. Based on the sea surface temps (SSTs) that the storm will encounter over the next couple days, I believe the storm will not strengthen as much as some models are showing, so I do not think it will curve north as far north as the GFS and GFDL are advertising. So, for my path I went just south of the model consensus for the re-curve out to sea. This storm may come close to Bermuda down the road, but I do not believe this storm poses a threat to the US or Canada for that matter.