Monday, July 21, 2008
HURRICANE ALERT: DOLLY POSES MAJOR THREAT TO WEST GULF COAST
Right now, all other weather issues will have to be put to side, because this will probably dwarf all of them. All things are pointing to a strong hurricane moving through the western Gulf and into the southern Texas coast. This storm will make Cristobal look like a puff of wind and a squirt of rain. Based on radar and satellite imagery, it is clear that Dolly's center has relocated to just WSW of Cancun. Also based on radar and satellite imagery, it is over the southern area of deep convection, and is rapidly organizing. Also, with the re-location, the center will just graze the Yucatan, so strengthening will not be inhibited at all until landfall on Wednesday.
Full discussion/reasoning:
With the relocation of Dolly, I went north of 0z guidance. But, over the next 48 hours, Dolly will follow the flow around a high pressure over the southern US/northern Gulf. It appears the ridge will be braking down some to the N of Dolly, so Dolly will continue moving in a similar WNW direction over the next 48 hours. But, with the ridge weakening some Tuesday, the forward motion of Dolly should slow some. On Wednesday, the ridge may try to build back a little bit north of Dolly, and with Dolly being farther north than originally progged, it looks like the ridge may cause Dolly to move a little more the the south on Wednesday. However, no matter how you look at it, landfall will occur in either extreme northern Mexico, or south/central Texas. As for intensity, the ULL that is currently causing some shear to Dolly is expected to get out of the way quickly here, and may actually help the outflow which is already very good. Also, Dolly will be moving over warm Gulf waters. In summary, Dolly has and will continue to be in an environment that features good outflow, low shear, and warm SSTs so I see no reason while a fairly rapid strengthening trend will not occur until this thing hits land. Hopefully, this thing will not explode like several hurricanes have over the last few years.
Intensity forecast (could change, bottom line is this will bring major impacts to where it makes landfall):
0z Tue: 65-70
0z Wed: 85-90
0z Thu: 105-110 (near landfall).
Just a note, the area between Brownsville and Corpus Christi are pretty sparsely populated, and that is where the current track has this going. However, a slight deviation in track (which could very well occur) would bring this thing into more populated areas. In summary, everyone from northern Mexico to central Texas need to start preparing now for a hurricane making landfall. A large area of heavy rain and damaging winds accompany hurricanes, and destructive storm surges can also occur, and extend well away from the center, so do not focus on where the center will make landfall because the effects of hurricanes are felt over large areas.
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