Invest 94 Really Starting to Disappoint; Development in Gulf of Mexico?

The tropical wave in the central Atlantic that looked like it would develop a couple days ago has really looked not impressive since then. Today there have been some intermittent bursts of convection, but nothing really organized. And it appears that the low level circulation has weakened. The reason for this is some shear and the system moving through some drier air. These limitations are not killing the system completely but are preventing it from developing. Over the next few days the environment will be similar, so now I am backing off my earlier prediction of this thing developing, and am giving this thing a 50/50 chance of becoming a depression by Friday. After that, I am not going to speculate much more, but what's left of it, or potentially a developing storm will keep moving through the Caribbean. Down the road the environment may become more favorable for possible development, so this system still needs to be monitored. No matter what the Lesser Antilles will see heavy rains and gusty winds. In summary: Lesser Antilles, expect some gusty weather. Even if this system doesn't develop in the short term, it is a potent tropical wave and needs to be watched down the road in case it runs into a more favorable environment.

GULF SYSTEM: A weak low pressure has developed off of Florida's gulf coast. No imminent development is expecting, but it is in a low shear environment and is over very warm waters, so if convection can keep firing near this thing it may slowly organized. Right now, steering currents are very weak. But, with that strong, building high to the east of this system, I think this thing will slowly more to the north over the next couple days. With its proximity to the coast, and right now the lack of a a nice spin, I don't think this will turn into too much. Now, there is an outside chance at development. This thing will either move more north to NNE and go into the FL peninsula. This would not permit development, but would bring more rain to Florida. Or, the high will build faster, and the low will move more north to NNW, and hit in the Florida panhandle. This may allow some organization into perhaps a TD or weak storm, due to low shear and warm SSTs. There is a slight chance if this staying over water long enough to become a named storm, but either way this thing will bring some much needed rain to FL and the SE. After landfall over Florida, the strong ridge to the north of this will cause it to meander around over the SE the rest of the week, enhancing precipitation some. Later this weekend, as a front approaches and weakens the ridge, any residual moisture from this may enhance precip some over the NE/Mid Atlantic.