Wind shear, moisture, instability appear to be all favorable for a decent bought of severe wx on Wednesday into Wednesday night. MI is a bit of a question as moisture will be lagging there a bit, but it appears that by late in the day dews will be well into the 60s, which will allow CAPEs to increase to 1000-2000 over MI, and 2000-4000 over southern WI, IA, IL, and parts of MO, and LIs will also be -3 to -6 over MI, and -5 to -9 or lower over the rest of the higher risk areas for severe. This should allow widespread storms to develop and quickly become severe, and with decent shear in place damaging winds appear to be a large threat with many of the storms tomorrow. With the strong flow aloft I believe the storms will organize into squall lines with an enhanced damaging with threat. These areas of storms could organize into a MCS or two, which is indicated by the latest NAM and GFS. The SPC goes along with this adea as of the Day 2 outlook (I will probably be out cold by the new Day 1 outlook comes out). With the amount of instability, shear and slightly cooler air aloft, hail may also be a threat along few tornadoes. However, I do not foresee a large tornado outbreak.
NOTE: I am going to hold off on the moderate risk.
NOTE: I am going to again post all my forecasts that I usually post on the accu wx forums here, along with coverage of other major weather related events.
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