Thursday Severe

I do not see a huge outbreak Thursday, but in the NE ahead of the front there will be some morning sunshine and moisture in place, which will allow CAPEs to approach 1500 and LIs to range from -2 to -4. This will allow widespread convection to fire in the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Instability will be by no means great, but with a lot of shear in place I believe some storms will become severe. I know Matt and the SPC mentioned supercells due to the shear, but with instability pretty low I believe the threat for supercells is low. However, I believe that storms will try to organize into line segments, with slightly enhanced wind damage threats due to the stronger winds aloft. But again, with limited instability in place only a few storms will get strong enough to tap the stronger winds aloft and produce damaging winds. I cannot rule out a little bit of hail in the stronger storms but nothing huge hail wise is expected. In the morning if things look slightly more unstable I may need to add a 30% risk area, but at this time I give that a small chance of happening. Thursday I will have a in depth analysis of the two invests in the Atlantic, which may develop into tropical cyclones.