Monday, July 14, 2008

Invest 94 Update: Not as Impressive as Last Night, But Development Still Expected




This afternoon of visible imagery there was a well defined center. However, it is just south of that northern curved band. To be honest, this thing is not looking organized right now. However, I still think it is on the verge of becoming a depression, so it is only a matter of time before we get a burst of convection over the center which would likely prompt an upgrade to depression. Now, where it goes from here and how strong it gets are still in question. The models are a little farther south than yesterday, and some of them are no longer showing this developing. Based on the rather poor satellite presentation, I am not expecting as quick of a development as I hinted at yesterday. But this thing is in a favorable environment for development and already has a low level circulation, so I still think that we will see a depression form by sometime Tuesday, a storm by sometime Wednesday, and possibly a hurricane by the weekend. Based on the above, all of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola need to monitor this. Where it goes after this week is still highly uncertain, and how strong it gets is also uncertain.

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