Quick Update

Don't have much time but will sneak in an update...
-Tonight's severe seems to be going as planned. So far one long tracked super cell that has produced major damage and storms really starting to get going over Texas.
-For tomorrow I will keep the same outlook map as yesterday. Minor changes may be needed but I really don't have time. This will be a large tornado outbreak either way you look at it, possibly over 50 tornadoes?!?
-Friday there could be severe weather farther east and even eastern Ohio could have a tornado threat.
-Sunday-Monday it will be cold enough for snow in northern Ohio, and ample moisture will be in place. Sunday will feature scattered rain/snow showers with no accums, Sunday night will be colder and there could be a little lake enhancement so light accumulations are possible. Temps will rebound by the middle of next week. I will try to have a much more detailed update tomorrow.

Thursday Tornado Outbreak

Here is my early map for Thursday/Thursday night's severe weather outbreak. Here is what will happen:
-The same low pressure that will give TX/OK severe weather tomorrow will eject NE. By late Thursday afternoon it will be over NW Missouri. This low pressure will have a vigorous low level jet with it which will cause very high amounts of wind shear, especially from Louisiana northward to as far north as Chicago. So if storms get going very strong winds and tornadoes are immediately threats. So the question is, where will the storms fire?
-I think the most intense storms, with the best threat for rotating super-cells will be from southern IL/NW Missouri south through Arkansas and even into northern Louisiana. These areas will have similar amounts of low level jet stream energy to work with, and much more heat and humidity, so storms will fire in those areas first and will be surface based, which favors tornadoes.
-Farther north there will be just as much wind shear/low level jet stream energy. So why only slight/moderate risks? Clouds/less heat/less moisture. That will slightly inhibit strong, individual, tornado producing super cells from developing as fast and as frequently. But, it should be known that in the slight/moderate risks area to the north of the high risk area any individual storms that do develop could rotate and easily produce tornadoes, I just don't think TOO many will do that.
-Along the cold front there will likely be a strong squall line. This will affect the slight/moderate risk areas, and even the high risk area. However, with the squall line the threat will be mainly high winds, and not many tornadoes. I think the squall line will develop farther north due to the forcing/added lift the front itself provides. I just don't think too many super cells will develop ahead of the squall line in the northern portions of the severe threat area.
-Along the warm front there may be some convection with a bit of a hail threat.
-Summary: Super cell thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front starting Thursday afternoon. They will be more potent and more widespread S.Illinois/central Missouri points south due to more warmth and humidity. Any individual storms that develop farther north could still spawn tornadoes. Along the cold front a squall line will develop and produce a damaging wind threat as far north as N.Missouri/N.Illinois. Along the warm front some storms that produce hail are also possible.
-I will have Friday's severe weather map later this evening.

Severe Weather...Not too Much Today, but Tomorrow the big Outbreak Begins

Tomorrow will be severe weather day 1 of this major three day outbreak which will affect areas from the southern Plains all the way into the Appellations. Here is what will happen tomorrow:
-A cold front will stall out over northern TX/AR. This could light up a little in the afternoon.
-But in the late afternoon a low pressure will start approaching from the Rockies. This will cause the cold front to move back north as a warm front.
-A dry line/cold front will trail the low pressure. There could be isolated severe thunderstorms (an isolated tornado?) ahead of the dry line, but the main storm focus for tomorrow/tomorrow night will be along the dry line. This dry line will light up tomorrow evening. We could see some rotating storms along it in the mid evening hours (7-11PM) but as the storms really get going tomorrow night a strong squall line will likely develop on the squall line and race ENE. The squall line will be strongest in the moderate risk area.
-Along the warm front there will likely be some storms that develop tomorrow evening (similar to last night?) and continue to move NE tomorrow night. These storms will likely produce hail as the main threat, but there could be some rotation but there may not be enough surface based CAPE on the warm front to produce tornadoes.
-Summary: A dry line will light up with a squall line and maybe isolated tornadoes across TX tomorrow evening. There could be some hail producing storms on the warm front. Some tornado producing super cells may develop ahead of the dry line across Texas, but this won't be a huge outbreak but I could see 8-16 tornadoes being reported. If we get warmer and moisture faster across TX tomorrow more super cells could get going ahead of the dry line sooner and that would mean more tornadoes before we loose day time heating tomorrow night which will signal the transition to a squall line/wind/hail event.
-We will see a bigger outbreak (a huge one, actually) Thursday-Friday, and on Friday even Ohio could see some severe weather. More on this later this evening.
-Today's severe weather is slow to get going. Not a huge outbreak but there will be some severe weather this evening. I agree with this afternoon's SPC's severe weather map.

Tuesday's Severe...Comments on Tonight's Severe...Stressing the Major Threat Thursday

Tomorrow there will be a moderate sized sized severe weather outbreak. We will have plenty of heat and humidity ahead of a cold front and some wind shear especially near the low pressure in the warm sector and along the warm front. These areas could see a few tornadoes, and actually anyone in the red zone has a chance of some isolated tornadoes. This won't be a huge outbreak but a moderate risk may be issued...

Not to many tornadoes tonight, but one has been reported so far. The warm front in northern OK actually lit up with some large hail storms. The severe threat will continue to diminish this evening.

Stay tuned as a HUGE tornado outbreak looks likely Thursday/Friday. More tomorrow evening when I have time.

Major Severe Weather Week...

Today is day one out of a five day severe weather outbreak. A low pressure is over the Texas Panhandle drawing warm air northward ahead if it and dryer, cooler air behind it. Where the two meet there will be some severe weather. Moisture is building and temperatures are peaking around 80 in the area in question. This will cause isolated thunderstorms to develop along and just ahead of the dry line. These storms will be surface based meaning they will have updrafts that can a) support LARGE hail and b)support tornadoes if they tap the moderate to high wind shear just aloft. I think that from 6-11PM CDT will be the greatest threat for tornadoes in the area in question. Later tonight the storms will diminish as the daytime heating diminishes.

We have already had a very Strong super cell thunderstorm in the near the OK/TX border that has likely already produced a tornado. It is weakening now as it is approaching Wichita. Tomorrow there will be more severe weather. More on that later.

Warm Weather Continues!

We have been locked in a warm weather pattern here across Ohio for about a week now, and that is going to continue. Due to a lack of time I haven't looked at the weather in much detail over the last five days and just glanced at everything now, but here are a few quick points:

-Above average temps continue for much of the east, with no major snow except for over the far northern Midwest tomorrow.

-There will be a cold front that affects areas from the Rockies point east Tuesday/Wednesday. This will only pull in warm air ahead of the front and produce some severe weather, but not a huge outbreak.

-A wave of low pressure will develop on that stalled out front over Texas on Wednesday, and move NE. Areas near and south of the low could see some severe weather on Wednesday, a severe weather outbreak Thursday, and a little bit of severe even on Friday over the east, and much warmer weather until a cold front comes through.

-Next weekend appears to be cold/raw here over Ohio, with some rain/snow appearing likely.

I will have a much more detailed post late tomorrow.

I'm Gone Through Sunday! My last few thoughts!

-This Evening's Severe is a little surprising:

A squall line formed a little farther north and a little late, considering the time of year. I though the severe threat would be low in the evening due to the loss of daytime heating/jet stream support, but as the wind fields accelerated a little when the sun went down the line of thunderstorms that was going on at the time strengthened. So NJ/SE NY/CT will see a nice line of storms this evening with isolated damaging winds.

-Severe event Thursday in the Plains:

A low pressure will eject from the Rocky mountains early Thursday, bringing in more warm, moist air and some more wind shear for the southern Plains. This could spark off more severe weather Thursday. Friday there could be some severe weather off to the east.

-Overall weather pattern:

It looks we are more than likely done with any plowable snow. We will be seeing a much warmer weather pattern over the next two weeks. Near or above normal will be the norm and any cold snaps will be short and fleeting.

-Important weather links:
-SPC
-NWS
-National/Regional Radars
-Weather.com interactive radar (really good) Suggestion: Change base from map to satellite
-NCEP model page
-Nexlab stormlab (good site, slightly advanced)
-PSU e-wall (great site!)

Stay safe and I will be back Monday (if not late Sunday)

Tuesday's Severe

Sorry about not posting earlier today...kind of busy most of today. Today's outbreak was not spectacular, but there were a ton of severe thunderstorm warnings along a squall line (expected) with a lot of high winds but only a handful of tornado reports thus far. Tomorrow between noon and 6PM we could have a few scattered severe thunderstorms producing high winds. Tomorrow there will be a nice low level jet over that area, but it will be moving out by late afternoon leaving a small window for a few severe storms. It looks like things could start popping in western PA/WV around noon, just scattered cells, maybe a broken line, and will move ENE through the slight risk area, with the severe threat going down by evening as the strongest low level jet moves away from the area. The big cities could see a few rumbles of thunder but the severe threat is extremely small. I think there is a very small tornado risk, so I wouldn't be completely surprised if there is a report or two...I will be out of town Wednesday-Sunday and will not be posting during that time. My last post will be some time late tomorrow afternoon/evening, and I MIGHT be able to sneak in another post Sunday late evening.

Severe Weather Starting in OK...How Many Tornadoes Will There Be?

Storms starting to pop over Oklahoma. They are expected to expand NNE tonight. Right now no tornado warning but I do expect several as the evening goes on. I may be able to sneak and update in later this evening. Keep checking your local radar this evening if you are in the tornado watch, and later tonight the threat will expand NE through my slight risk area tonight. As I have been saying a much bigger outbreak tomorrow...

Here is my Monday Map After Taking a Better Look at Things

I made a few changes to the map from this morning. Here they are and why I made them:

1. The most important thing I did was highlight the Chicago area. I am skeptical about things really getting going because of marginal instability, but if the warm front which will be near the Chicago area gets active, there could several tornadoes in the outlined area. Again, I am skeptical, and will give it about a 30% chance of happening, but, if maybe the sun comes out and it gets a little more unstable that area could get going late tomorrow.

2. I shrunk the moderate risk. I realized that when the main batch of storms gets as far east as like central IL they will be starting to weaken due to the loss of daytime heating, so I cut some off the eastern edge of the moderate risk.

3. I pulled the southern edge of everything farther south because there will be a dry line extending down to close to the gulf coast.

We'll see how things start developing tomorrow afternoon but as it looks now near and in that moderate risk area there could be several strong super cell thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes, and there could be a squall line that sweeps west to east with the cold front tomorrow afternoon/evening with a widespread high wind threat. Also, watch the Chicago area as there is an outside chance of a secondary outbreak there.

Monday's Outbreak Map

The threat is there for a tornado outbreak tomorrow. We will get a cold front approaching the area in question tomorrow afternoon, and a squall line will develop along the front, bringing the threat for high winds due to a strong low level jet stream. The tornado threat comes ahead of that squall line, where individual super cells develop. How far north these super cells get depends on the amount of instability IMO. That is why I think there is only a small threat for tornadoes in the Chicago area. Farther south it will be warmer and moisture, so I think more super cells will break out in that area (signified by my moderate risk) This could be a large outbreak depending on how things set up. More on this later.

An Update on Today's Outbreak

There is a cluster of severe storms near the Louisiana/Texas border this morning. Those will dissipate throughout the day. This evening we could see some scattered super-cell thunderstorms develop across Texas/Oklahoma/Missouri. This won't be a huge outbreak but some large hail and isolated tornadoes are likely this evening. This outbreak will continue into and expand tomorrow. An update on that soon.

Sunday Evening Tornado Outbreak?

Sunday evening looks to be busy in Oklahoma, Kansas, and even into Missouri. A warm front will be the focal point of perhaps a mini tornado outbreak. Why? Along and just north of the warm front surface winds will be from the SE, but winds just aloft will be blasting SSW at 50-60 knots, creating a ton of wind shear. I do not think there will be widespread thunderstorms, as it won't be extremely warm and unstable and moist, but, there will be at least isolated thunderstorms and any storms will be capable of producing tornadoes. This looks like if there is a mini outbreak it will get going Sunday after dark. Monday there will likely be a much larger outbreak. More details tomorrow.

Saturday "Severe"

Not much severe weather to speak of. A front will remain stalled over the southern US, and late tomorrow night may start lifting northward towards IL/IN. That could be the focal point of some thunderstorms, but no little waves of energy riding along the front to spark off any severe weather. No tornado reports expected tomorrow, 10> hail reports, 10> high wind reports. Sunday-Tuesday will be much more active. More on that later Saturday.

No Rest for the Weary: Flooding and Severe Weather Threaten Again

We will be very busy Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday tracking a severe weather outbreak and also some heavy rains. Lets break this down day by day:
Sunday will not be that bad. The storm will just be starting to get together over the Rocky Mountains. It will already start drawing warm air and moisture northward, so there could be some moderate rains breaking out along a warm front. South of the warm front a few storms could pop up but nothing major. Over Texas there will be a dry line but there won't be much action along it Sunday as there will be very little moisture to work with.

Monday will be the worst day of this event. The storm will be fully organized and will pull a ton of moisture and warm air northward. However it will be like winter behind the storm. This clash of air masses will really get everything going by creating a lot of instability. There will be an extremely strong low level jet with this storm. It looks like just a few thousand feet up the winds will be screaming at 70-90MPH, which will add to the instability and create wind shear. It looks like Monday late afternoon when things really get going there could be quite a few super-cell thunderstorms from Texas all the way up into IL/southern MI. Late Monday evening this will transform into more of a squall line with damaging winds being the biggest threat. The event will diminish late Monday night. These storms could dump 1-3"+ of rain over already flooded areas so this system will only make flooding problems worse. There could be minor flooding as far north as Michigan and into Canada, but less of a severe threat in those areas as they will be a little cooler and more stable. All this moisture will get pulled northward and will create some moderate snows on the northern side of this storm.

Tuesday the front pushes farther east. There won't be as much of a flooding rain threat and less of a severe threat as it won't be as warm and unstable as it will be in the Mississippi Valley on Monday. Here in Ohio the front will come through Tuesday morning during the convective minima, so there could be some thunder and gusty winds but the severe threat and flood threat will be lower. As the front pushes east into PA/NY and even southern New England later Tuesday there will be enough instability and still a strong low level jet so some damaging winds are possible Tuesday afternoon/evening across those areas. The severe threat will diminish Tuesday night so by the time the front reaches the big cities the severe threat will be diminishing. Even though New England won't be seeing too much heavy rain there is a ton of snow on the ground that will start melting. I think for now we will avoid disaster as it will only warm for 24-36 hours and rain amounts will be fairly light, but minor flooding will be an issue in New England. More updates and more detailed maps this weekend.

Flood Warnings

Last nights heavy rain, which dumped 1-2" across most of northern Ohio has triggered minor flooding on several Ohio rivers. That map shows the counties being warned for. Here some more specifics on the flooding (from the NWS as 10AM this morning, current water levels may be different):
-The Cuyahoga River at Independence is currently at 16.9 feet and rising, and is expected to crest near 17.3 feet this afternoon. Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
-The Grand River at Painesville is currently at 7.0 feet and rising, and is expected to crest near 9.5 feet around noon today. Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
-The Black River at Elyria is at 10.8 feet and rising, and is expected to crest between 11.5 and 12.0 feet this afternoon. Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
-The Huron River near Milan is at 18.0 feet and slowly rising, and is expected to crest near 18.1 feet this afternoon. Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
-The Portage River at Woodville is at 7.5 feet and rising, and is expected to crest between 11.0 and 11.5 feet around midnight tonight. Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
-The Blanchard River near Findlay is at 9.7 feet and rising, and is expected to crest between 11.5 and 12.0 feet tonight. Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
-The Tiffin River near Stryker is at at 11.4 feet and rising, and is expected to crest near 12.9 feet Sunday morning. Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
-The Killbuck Creek near Killbuck is at 14.2 feet and rising, and is expected to crest near 15.2 feet Sunday morning. Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
-The Muskingum River near Coshocton is at 16.2 feet and will fluctuate around 16.0 feet through tomorrow morning. Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
-The Tuscarawas River near New Philadelphia is at 7.7 feet and will remain near or above the 7.5 feet flood stage until further notice or when the warning is canceled.
-The Mahoning River at Leavittsburg is at 10.9 feet and rising, and is expected to crest between 11.5 and 12.0 feet this afternoon. Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
-The Mahoning River at Youngstown is at 9.9 feet and rising, and is expected to crest between 12.5 and 13.0 feet this evening. Flood stage is 10.0 feet.

Friday Severe

Not much severe weather to speak of Friday...The system bringing us heavy rain/thunder/snow tonight will shift east and drag a cold front with it sparking off some thunder in the Mid Atlantic, and that front will stall over the Carolinas/Tennessee/Arkansas/Oklahoma, and late Friday night a bit of a wave of low pressure will develop over Texas along that front which could spark off some scattered thunderstorms late Friday Night especially over south Texas...Storm Chasers, sorry, but I wouldn't be supprised if there are ZERO tornado reports tomorrow, but I think there could be 10-20 hail reports and 5-15 high wind reports, very low numbers which is good for people who don't want severe weather. I am eying a system this coming Monday/Tuesday for a better chance of severe weather and more flooding rains, along with a warm up.

Snow Changover Very Slow...

The change to snow has made its way into Mansfield according to an official NWS observation. I will back off my earlier predictions and declare this one a bust...NW Ohio will still see 3-5" but here in north central and northeast Ohio only an inch or so will be the max...this has been really deflating...we go from the models showing us in the warm sector and temps near 50 tomorrow, to the models showing several inches of snow tonight, to the models going back closer to their original solutions which showed us getting very little snow...If I had to grade myself (for following the models and biting on the colder solution) I would give myself an F and I would the the models an F-. Now that we really look to be turning the corner into spring (finally) the main shift of this blog will start shifting towards severe weather, with many more (daily if I can find time) thunderstorm threat maps for the country. I will also be paying more potential to flooding potentials (this spring has already been bad for flooding). And come June obviously the tropics will be covered extensively on this blog. And just in case Mother Nature throws one more wintry curveball at us I will be ready to cover snow if needed.

A bit of a Change

Yesterday it looked like northern Ohio could see 3-6" of snow...today the models backed off the solution a bit...it looks like the precip moving in this evening will start as mainly rain, but as the evening goes on it looks like north of I-80 we will change to snow by midnight, with 2-4" possible, especially NW and far NE Ohio along with some sleet. South of I-80 there still could be a light coating of snow. We could also see some thunder as convection is definetly occurring in the batch of precip moving our way.