Today is day one out of a five day severe weather outbreak. A low pressure is over the Texas Panhandle drawing warm air northward ahead if it and dryer, cooler air behind it. Where the two meet there will be some severe weather. Moisture is building and temperatures are peaking around 80 in the area in question. This will cause isolated thunderstorms to develop along and just ahead of the dry line. These storms will be surface based meaning they will have updrafts that can a) support LARGE hail and b)support tornadoes if they tap the moderate to high wind shear just aloft. I think that from 6-11PM CDT will be the greatest threat for tornadoes in the area in question. Later tonight the storms will diminish as the daytime heating diminishes.We have already had a very Strong super cell thunderstorm in the near the OK/TX border that has likely already produced a tornado. It is weakening now as it is approaching Wichita. Tomorrow there will be more severe weather. More on that later.
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