The Storm Zone

I am starting a new way to tell you what the general area I will be watching for a particular extreme weather situation, usually strong to severe storms. This will be called "The Storm Zone" and whenever there is an area of extreme weather I will be watching I will post a map like the one above with an area outlined and a discussion on what I think will happen. The Storm Zone is comparable to the SPC mesodiscustions although they may be much larger during a large outbreak so there is just one covering the whole outbreak. In tonight's storm zone a front with arctic air behind it will collide with much warmer and more humid air. This will cause a low to develop later tonight. But until then a dry line is also slicing into The Storm Zone and that is already causing super cell thunderstorms to develop. These storms are easily able to maintain severe status because because of ML CAPEs of over 1500, Lifted Indices of -4 to -6, and steep low and mid level lapse rates. These storms are rotating because the winds are coming from all different directions at different levels. Surface winds are backed to out of the east, 850MB winds are out of the southeast, 700MB winds are out of the southwest, and the winds 500MB and above are blasting out of the west. Not good. These steep lapse rates and lifted indices and high CAPES will cause strong up drafts and possibly pretty big hail in the strongest storms. The low dew points could result in strong downburst winds. Now, into the overnight tonight a late season arctic like front will come plunging into northern Texas. This will draw moisture towards it and likely be the focus of storms later tonight. Wind damage will be a threat along the cold front because there is a huge amount of cold air coming in and the jet stream will really be getting energetic late tonight. More on this arctic outbreak, which could bring Ohio some snow tomorrow.