Thursday Severe Weather

Before I get into the disscusion, here is what my risk areas mean:
-Thunder: A 20%+ chance of hearing thunder. Very little to no severe weather expected.
-Slight Risk: Thunderstorms will likely develop in the outlook area. Severe weather is possible but reports will likely be scattered. A large outbreak is not expected.
-Moderate Risk: Thunderstorms will develop in the outlook area. Organized severe weather is likely with widespread reports possible. Also a higher risk of exceptionaly severe weather.
-High Risk: A major severe weather outbreak is expected. Widespread severe reports likely with several reports of exceptional severe weather likely. (Exceptional severe weather is strait line winds of over 80MPH, hail greater than 2", and/or hail.)
-Now Thursday's disscusion: Most of Thursday moisture will be advecting northward. A strong cap is likely going to be in place. By late afternoon the moisture will be borderline enough for severe and will continue to increase throughout the evening. This along with winds backing at the surface (adding convergence along the dryline) will probably weaken the cap some. There are questions on if storms will be able to fire Thursday evening. I think the cap will weaken enough for isolated storms to develop Thursday evening. These storms could get quite intense with very high CAPEs and a lot of wind shear and jet stream energy. All severe modes are possible tomorrow between 21z and 03z as these storms start to develop. The wind shear and strong high instability could favor strong tornadoes if storms develop. Late tomorrow night (after 03z, or 10PM CDT) the jet stream will really speed up, with over 50 knots at 850MB expected over OK/AR/Missouri. Also, the cold front will catch up to the dry line late tomorrow evening. This will erase any cap problems that will keep the dry line from getting too out of control. So tomorrow night storms will likely develop along the cold front, and will likely organize into a squall line/MCC. (Mesoscale Convective Complex). The tornado threat will be smaller with this as these storms will initilize at night. However damaging winds could be a large threat, with a very strong low level jet and cold air flooding in behind the front. The cold front storms that will develop overnight is what the moderate risk is for, as this area will likely see a decent line of storms come through. Friday's map/disscusion will be posted in a little bit.