More on Tomorrow's Storm

First the general set up. There is an arctic blast coming southeast, but there is a pretty mild, moist air mass in place. This will cause a storm to form along an old frontal boundary and move north-northeast. This system will bring a lot of moisture with it, because there is very moist air ahead of it and a huge temperature contrast. This will cause the storm to bring periods of steady, moderate to heavy rain. A lot of areas will see over .5" of rain, and in areas like here in Ohio, that is needed rain because things are getting a bit dry. Areas in the Carolinas could see 1.5-2.5" of rain because they will see two days (plus Saturday three days) of thunderstorms. This could cause minor flooding problems. Parts of the northeast could also see some heavier rain totals because of some moisture being picked up off the Atlantic enhancing rain totals. There could again be minor flooding problems in portions of the northeast/Mid Atlantic especially where it rained a lot yesterday, but the key word is "minor". This will not be a huge flood event. There will also be some snow behind the system. On Monday a shortwave will be diving south from Wisconsin through IL and Indiana, and this will cause some light snow accumulations in Wisconsin, maybe even some snow showers in northern IL. As this dives south it could cause instability thunderstorms Monday afternoon over IL and Indiana, and if these don't mix with snow there could be some pea sized hail because of very cold air aloft. Speaking of storms, there is a slight risk of severe storms in the east on Monday. The area under the slight risk is where there appears to be enough instability tomorrow afternoon for storms to develop. With such a huge amount of cold air coming in these storms will contain a damaging wind threat. There is not going to be a lot of wind shear so hopefully tornadoes won't be a problem. These storms will probably be low topped due to the lack of a lot of instability so hopefully hail shouldn't be a big problem, except for in the biggest storms.