Saturday, April 19, 2008

Still Pretty Quiet Weatherwise, But Fault Lines Become a Little More Interesting

A cut off low produced rain, thunderstorms, cold air funnels, and even the real deal warm air funnels (tornadoes) across a lot of areas today. There were two tornadoes this evening across N.Carolina with some moderate damage. There was a swath of thunderstorms also that affected areas in the Carolinas and the Virginias with some hail/high wind reports. Showers extended back through Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois, and in Indiana/Illinois there were several reports of cold core funnel clouds or "cold funnels." These usually don't touch down and form from rapidly rising cumulus clouds, some of which don't even produce rain. If they do touch down there is little to no damage. This mess caused by this cut off low is west of some warm weather. 70s and 80s stretched well into New England today with several record highs broken. Tomorrow it will be slightly cooler in the northeast but still very warm. The cut off low will drift East Sunday and produce more showers/storms over the Apps and eastern Ohio Valley as it drifts ESE. In the west a system produced some wintry conditions with over a foot of snow across parts of Montana and instability snow showers to VERY low elevations in the Seattle area. There was snow mixed in near sea level in some areas especially Friday. The system causing a snowstorm in the west will spawn a storm system over NW Texas late Monday. This will track NE bringing thunderstorms with it. I do not think we will see a huge severe weather outbreak due to the lack of dynamics and a strong jet stream but, considering the contrast of air masses associated with the system some severe weather and heavy rains are expected from the Planes east. And yes I did not miss all the news about the 5.2 earthquake in SE Illinois Friday morning and the aftershocks afterward. This earthquake occurred in the Wabash Valley fault system, adjacent to the New Madrid Seismic Zone. ***Before you read the rest of this post let it be known I am not an earthquake expert and all the info I provide on here is just compiled based on what I have heard/read from people who do have some knowledge in the field of geology.*** It was felt as far away as Michigan, Ohio, Georgia, and Arkansas due to the type of sediment that makes up the crust in the region (it helps the seismic waves travel farther). Luckily the New Madrid fault did not rupture like it did in 1811-1812, when a series or earthquakes, a few topping 7.0 on the Richter scale devastated a large area, with the center of the destruction being New Madrid, Missouri. Earthquakes in the 4.0-5.0 range are slightly rare but not all that uncommon along the New Madrid fault, although Friday's 5.2 was the biggest in about 40 years. If the New Madrid fault goes and produces a 7.0+ quake the type of sediment that makes up the crust in the region would lead to a large area of destruction. The odds of this happening in the next 50 years are low, less than 10%. Studies have found that the New Madrid fault ruptures and produces large earthquakes every 400-500 years, and the last time it ruptured was about 200 years ago. So hopefully this earthquake is just a harmless little shake (which it likely is, considering minor earthquakes aren't rare along the New Madrid fault) and not a foreshock to a much larger earthquake (it likely isn't a foreshock). More on this issue if any more notable earthquakes occur near or on the New Madrid or any Midwestern faults. Also will have an update if there is anything notable in California (which will most likely happen within the next few decades, luckily most people out there are aware of this constant threat).

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