Tomorrow will be severe weather day 1 of this major three day outbreak which will affect areas from the southern Plains all the way into the Appellations. Here is what will happen tomorrow:
-A cold front will stall out over northern TX/AR. This could light up a little in the afternoon.
-But in the late afternoon a low pressure will start approaching from the Rockies. This will cause the cold front to move back north as a warm front.
-A dry line/cold front will trail the low pressure. There could be isolated severe thunderstorms (an isolated tornado?) ahead of the dry line, but the main storm focus for tomorrow/tomorrow night will be along the dry line. This dry line will light up tomorrow evening. We could see some rotating storms along it in the mid evening hours (7-11PM) but as the storms really get going tomorrow night a strong squall line will likely develop on the squall line and race ENE. The squall line will be strongest in the moderate risk area.
-Along the warm front there will likely be some storms that develop tomorrow evening (similar to last night?) and continue to move NE tomorrow night. These storms will likely produce hail as the main threat, but there could be some rotation but there may not be enough surface based CAPE on the warm front to produce tornadoes.
-Summary: A dry line will light up with a squall line and maybe isolated tornadoes across TX tomorrow evening. There could be some hail producing storms on the warm front. Some tornado producing super cells may develop ahead of the dry line across Texas, but this won't be a huge outbreak but I could see 8-16 tornadoes being reported. If we get warmer and moisture faster across TX tomorrow more super cells could get going ahead of the dry line sooner and that would mean more tornadoes before we loose day time heating tomorrow night which will signal the transition to a squall line/wind/hail event.
-We will see a bigger outbreak (a huge one, actually) Thursday-Friday, and on Friday even Ohio could see some severe weather. More on this later this evening.
-Today's severe weather is slow to get going. Not a huge outbreak but there will be some severe weather this evening. I agree with this afternoon's SPC's severe weather map.
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