And I am not just talking about my forecast, I am talking about the SPC, TWC, Accuweather and basically most of the major weather sources that put out forecasts. Quite simple: Clouds. Lets compare my outlook made on Tuesday to what actually happened:
-One area sticks out like a soar thumb...the high risk. Up until late today it looked like if there were a lot of tornadoes it would be in this area. It looked like there would be sufficient heating and upper support. We got a little of both but at different times. We got the upper support this morning and this afternoon, but it was cloudy and a cap was in place so storms didn't really get going. Late this afternoon a line of storms broke out but, the upper level winds were dying down. If the sun had broken out as it looked like it would super cells would have popped like crazy this afternoon but, the sun didn't really come out.
-The northern areas (slight/moderate risks) were more active. Even though it was cloudy there was so much jet stream energy to work with that the storms that did pop really got going, and even in Iowa along a warm front there was some activity. Now, considering this was made 48 hours before the actual event a 50-100 mile change in the warm front is possible and did occur. There have also been strong storms just SE of the low most of this afternoon/evening.
-So, how do I rate the individual performances? (at least the big one and myself)
SPC: C They did not go crazy and issue any high risks or anything like that, which I did, but the moderate risk area busted terribly. They did judge the warm front activity quite good IMO.
Myself: D- High risk area busted terribly. The northern areas of my risk area were better but still not that good, but I made the map two days before the actual event. I think the problem everyone had was clouds, which kept instability down and kept storms from developing. Tomorrow is a whole other day and we will see what we can muster tomorrow (map by 11PM)
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