Thursday, April 10, 2008

Tonight's Severe Just Getting Underway

There are some severe storms fire now with tornadoes associated with them. Here is what I expect to happen the rest of tonight:
-A trough of low pressure with elevated convection with a low tornado threat will continue to move east through IL/IN tonight. The southern portion of this area however (central IL south) it is much warmer and more humid so there are tornadoes firing in along that trough of low pressure. These will also shift NNE tonight and eventually fissile into more of a hail/wind threat by late tonight.
-The actual cold front is located over NW Missouri/central Iowa and super cells are developing along that. These will slowly progress east tonight but only get to central IL by morning. The threat will lower tonight as day time heating is lost.
-In the dry slot over Missouri where the cap is being broken some super cells are breaking out. A few more will do that by 10PM CDT while daytime heating is still a factor, but later tonight the dry slot should dry out and any isolated super cells will weaken.
-So by morning the only severe threat will be along the trough of low pressure over TN/AL, and it will be low. In the dry slot where storms will be based more on surface heating and along the actual cold front things should be relatively quiet with just isolated storms by morning. But all those areas will fire back up in the afternoon Friday.
-Note: If the dry slot can become more pronounced tomorrow and more sun breaks out Ohio could see some super cells, but the key word is IF. More on Friday's threat later.

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