Here is my map for tomorrow/tomorrow night. Just wanted to get it out there. Here is a brief discussion:
-Storms will be ongoing 12z Friday across Missouri/Arkansas. These could be severe in the morning, but will quickly weaken.
-The strongest axis of jet stream energy will ride from Missouri/AK in the morning towards IL/IN. After 18z it should destabilize enough for storms to start firing along the cold front. Along the front the best threat will be high winds. The question is will be how many clouds will be in the sky to keep down daytime heating. If the skies clear out in the warm sector tomorrow, not only will there be a squall line along the cold front, but discrete super cells ahead of the squall line. Tomorrow a cap does not appear to be a problem, so we could have many super cells with tornado threats ahead of the squall line. I do think that super cells will develop tomorrow afternoon, so we could have a number of tornadoes... I am now out for tonight...I will update tomorrow between 330 and 4PM EDT...if there is enough daytime heating in the warm sector...I may go all the way up to high risk somewhere in the current moderate risk zone...
Thursday, May 1, 2008
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