SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK

Well I was out for about two hours this evening...when I left, scattered storms were just starting to develop...when I got back there were reports of huge tornadoes on the ground and the dry line was completely lit up with storms. Now, as we are loosing day time heating at around 10EDT, the storms are starting to die down as a strong cap was in place. As I said, it looked like the models may have been over doing the moisture this afternoon, and were still showing bone dry mid-levels this evening. But, the moisture was much deeper, and was more than enough to get scattered super cell thunderstorms going. The dry line activity will remain scattered through at least midnight tonight with a tornado risk on any storm that really gets going. However, the cold front will catch up to the dry line after 5z tonight. At this point the cold front will likely light up, especially in the moderate risk area on my map which has already gotten pounded. These storms will have more of a damaging wind threat but some tornadoes cannot be ruled out. As an early assessment of my forecast I put the moderate risk in the right spot...although things got more active than I originally though. I originally though just isolated to widely scattered storms on the dry line, but at one point most of the dry line had scattered to widespread thunderstorms. So the moisture got deeper than expected and allowed the cap to break this evening. Now as we loose daytime heating the cap is starting to suppress the storms again. But as I said more activity will develop tonight.