Rainstorm Disscusion

Here is my full info on the storm that is producing some severe weather in the south now and that will produce rain and wind for the east coast.

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I know it may look a bit confusing with all those layers on top of each other so here is a little key:
The blue is where wind gusts of 30-40MPH are likely.
The red (makes the rain predictions under it look kind of brown) represents where severe weather is possible.
The greens/yellows are the rainfall forecasts. These colors may be slightly different if severe weather or wind gust forecasts are on top of it, but you can still tell where the different amounts are.
Discussion:
The models have strengthened the storm by a few millibars over the last day or so. However, the operational GFS remains the strongest, and the EURO looks the most constant. So I will go with a split of the GFS ensemble and EURO for strength of the low. As for the track, the EURO looks a little too slow and a little too far south. I am saying this because there will be some weak ridging in the Atlantic/Gulf which will push the storm northward some:

1000 x 600 (80.45K)

As you can see on that 500MB height anomaly map for 12z Friday, there will be some weak ridging in the areas I mentioned. (remember, on those maps greens/yellows are ridging, blues/purples are troughiness) The ridging will be fairly weak and won't be enough to push the storm back into the Great Lakes, but I think it will keep it from tracking as far south as the EURO would indicate. So, for the track I went with a blend of the GFS ensemble and EURO with emphasis on the GFS ensemble. As for winds, it does look like the storm will be a few millibars stronger than before, but chances are it still won't get below 990-994MB at any point off the east coast, but with a weak high behind the storm and cooler air coming in, wind gusts of 25-35MPH are likely inland with gusts of 30-locally 40MPH along the coast and over water. Now, for rainfall forecasts I will change my prediction from last night now that I have gotten a better look. The storm looks like it has slowed down some and will get a little stronger than originally though, so I brought rainfall totals up. I think across southern New England/the Mid Atlantic widespread 1-2" rain amounts will fall. I do not think more than that will fall in those areas, because farther west where my 2-3" stripe is (where some flooding is possible) there will be strong convection to the south to feed the rain, and there will be more moisture, but as you approach the east coast you loose the gulf connection some and it looks like there will not be as much convection wrapping up into the rain area as farther west, so only 1-2" of rain there. I think 3-4" amounts are highly unlikely on the east coast because there will not be a lot of convection or heavy rain bursts that are needed to get those amounts in a storm like this.

***For here in Ohio it looks like a decent bought of rain is likely. Expect the rain to start this evening in the form of showers and to pick up tonight into a steady, moderate rain that will last most of tomorrow and into tomorrow night. 1-2" of rain is expected in northern Ohio with over 2" in southern and especially southwestern Ohio. Some minor flooding problems are possible but the ground is very dry and the rain will not come down at the rate needed to get major flooding. Also expect chilly conditions with temps stuck in the upper 50s/lower 60s the next couple of days.

***For severe weather yesterdays map/discussion looks good, although the threat has passed for the western portions of the threat area. For up to date info on this outbreak including warnings, visit www.weather.gov and for a very good interactive radar map visit www.wunderground.com and click on the Wundermap link on the homepage.