Severe Weather Ongoing in OK, KS, TX, and AR

We have quite a few severe thunderstorms in the southern Planes this evening. There have been several tornado warnings but so far none of the storms have looked like they have produced severe damage, although the one that is now near Ponka/Newkirk, OK at the moment looks like it may as it looks impressive on radar and is moving through populated areas. More on that later if anything comes out of it. So, you can see above where the storms are now, and where the watches and warning are. But where will the storms threaten later this evening and tonight? Well, it looks like over the next 2-4 hours, there will be isolated storms in SW TX with a hail, wind and tornado threat due to a dry line in that area. Now, in far north TX, western and northern OK, and south/central Kansas is the big threat zone. Wind shear is much high in that area, and that area has more moisture and is more unstable. So, widespread storms will continue to affect that area, with all modes of severe, including the chance of some strong tornadoes will be possible in that area. Later this evening, as the storms become more organized and jet stream energy continues to strengthen, these storms will organize into a complex of storms or a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). This will move ESE through SE Kansas, eastern OK, and maybe skirting far northern TX. This complex of storms may also end up in far SE MO/western AR later tonight. These storms will bring a tornado threat through the evening, but as the night goes on the threat with these storms will transform into more of a damaging wind threat. Flooding is also possible with this complex of storms. Of less concern is an area of storms in AR along an old outflow boundary. Wind shear is not that high, but with very high instability some hail/strong winds are possible with any storms. These storms should slowly dissipate late this evening. There is also a cold front moving through the lower GLs/NW New England. Some storms are trying to fire but the severe threat along this front this evening remains rather low.