Sunday, May 25, 2008

A Quick Forecast For the Rest of Tonight's Severe Weather

STORMS IN WISCONSIN, AND STORMS IN IOWA HAVE BOTH DEVELOPED INTO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO CHARGE EAST WITH HIGH WIND THREAT, AND POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
The super cells that have and still are producing tornadoes across Minnesota and Iowa are developing into big complexes of storms, which could produce straight line wind damage. The complex that is now over north-central Wisconsin will charge east to maybe a little south of east over the next couple of hours. It will weaken as we loose day time heating and as the storms reach lake Michigan. The other complex of storms, in NE Iowa, NW IL, and far southern WI will continue to slide ESE, and the storms will continue to back build and train through the rest of the evening. This will bring a continued severe threats the areas I mentioned above, and increase a flooding threat. Due to very high wind shear there will be a high damaging wind threat for the next several hours, and also a tornado threat for the next couple of hours. This complex of storms has had a history of producing devastating tornadoes. I think this complex will bring some storms to Chicago. Will they hold together and still be severe? That is definitely a possibility. There is another area of storms, possibly tornadic at times in southern IL, eastern MO, and northern AR associated with a MCV. These will continue to drift ENE, with high winds, hail, tornadoes and flooding rains continuing to be threats as the night goes on. There is another MCS in Kansas along the cold front, which will bring a high wind, hail, and flooding threat as it moves east into Missouri, eastern KS, and even SW Iowa. There is another line of storms in the Texas Panhandle, along the dry line, with all modes of severe being possible. These should continue to be severe through around midnight, but after midnight the loss of day time heating should let these storms SLOWLY die down. Again, it has been such a busy evening, that is why I was not a little more detailed in my reasoning, and just said where I think these storms will go. I just don't have time, essentially. I am going to try to also squeeze in tomorrow's forecast within the next couple hours.

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