Monday, May 12, 2008

Tuesday/Tuesday Night Severe Weather *Outbreak*

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Here is my severe weather map for tomorrow/tomorrow night. What is the method to my madness? Here is my discussion:
For the dryline in Texas:
-Plentiful moisture, with dew points of 68-72+, CAPEs of 3500, LIs of less than -8, and directional wind shear will allow isolated storms to develop along the dryline in central Texas late tomorrow afternoon. However, it appears that a cap will be in place, which will hopefully keep the severe threat from getting too out of hand. But, with the isolated to widely scattered storms that develop along the dryline in Texas, huge hail appears to be a big threat, especially with the very high instability. However, with the directional wind shear in place tornadoes are also possible tomorrow evening along the TX dryline. Also, some damaging strait line wind gusts are possible.
For the cold front over eastern OK, SW MO, western AR, and later at night northern TX:
-Dew points will be in the mid to upper 60s, with CAPEs of 1500-3000, LIs of -6 to -10, and some directional and a little vertical wind shear will fuel severe storms which will start to develop tomorrow afternoon. The difference in this area will be less of a cap, which is why I chose to put this area under a moderate risk. So, I expect scattered storms to develop along the cold front starting tomorrow afternoon, with all modes of severe weather possible, with some of the stronger storms producing significant severe weather also.
For the cold front from central MO into parts of IL/IA:
-Dew points will be a little lower, 60-65, CAPEs will only be in the 1000 range, and LIs will range from 2 to -4, however there will be some vertical and directional wind shear. Despite some of the parameters being marginal for severe, I put the southern portion of this area into a moderate risk and the whole area, all the way up into Chicago into a slight risk because of the stronger piece of jet stream energy moving over the area. I have a feeling that in the late afternoon/evening that some storms, perhaps strong to only marginally severe will develop, but with the wind shear I am a little concerned about some damaging winds/tornadoes with these storms. I am going out on a limb here but the higher wind shear would support that type of severe weather even that far north.
Overnight in TX: A low pressure will begin developing over central TX Tuesday night, and this could cause abundant showers and storms to develop late tomorrow night in southern TX. All modes of severe appear possible.
On a side note: GO CAVS!

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