Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Tropical Development in Caribbean or Eastern Pacific?

An area of low pressure has developed just off the Central America coast in the Eastern Pacific. Right now, it is just drifting around and not going anywhere. Right now, it is near land and not in a faverable spot to develop into anything named. It is expected to remain that way for a while. Now, will this low head into the Atlantic side of Central America and perhaps threaten the US? I dought it. There is a lot of ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and the southern US, so this should keep this system out of the Atlantic. However, in 8-10 days the ridging will weaken and the pattern will remain favorable for the possibility of another low spinning up near Central America, so in 10-14+ days we may need to monitor for another possible tropical system near the US or Mexico. So, to sum it all up, here is my forecast: An area of low pressure has spun up near Central America over the Eastern Pacific. This low is drifting around, and is expected to continue to drift N-NW over the next few days. Wind shear is low enough for tropical development, and water temps are warm enough, but this system will remain close to Central America and Mexico, so there is less than a 25% chance in my opinion of a named storm coming out of this. Even though this low may not be named, its close proximaty to land and slow movement will cause possibly deadly flooding over Central America and eventually Mexico. Down the road (10-14+days out) another low may spin up near Central America, and may eventually threaten the US. I will have a more detailed look at tomorrow's severe by 6-630PM EDT.

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