HYPE: Tropical Storm This Week? Seems Possible!

Here is my early discussion on this possible tropical system:The setup is one favorable for Tropical cyclone in the western Carribean or the East Pac. There will be a huge ridge of high pressure in the northern Atlantic, which will act to keep the westerlies, (which prevent tropical development) to the north of the possible storm. The steering currents around the high would cause anything that developes in the region in question to move towards the NNW-NNE (northerly dirrection). Also, water temps in that region appear to be warm enough for possible development. Now, are the models crazy in spinning up a low down there out of no where? Probably not. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will be running through that area, which often brings convection and lower pressures. And, it is not unusual to get little spin ups along that, especially as we get into Monsoon season, which is when there is a change in the prevailing winds. These spin ups can develop into a tropical system either in the Atlantic or East Pac, so what the models are saying is not unreasonable. Now, if this storm develops, where will it develop, and how strong will it get? At this point in time there is equal opertunity for this to develop in the Atlantic or East Pacific. We will just have to see. And, if this low pressure does indeed develop like the models show, there is nothing to stop it from at least developing into an organized tropical low, if not a depression or weak storm. Early indications are wind shear over the possible storm will not be extreme, as the westerlies will remain well north of the system. Water temps also will be warm enough. But, the sub tropical jet stream (it is weak, but still a factor) could cause enough wind shear to preven this system from getting very strong. Also, potential land interactions will also likely prevent this system from getting too strong. And down the road, once this strom gets north of about 35-40 degrees latitude, it will run into the westerlies and become extratropical if it isn't obsorbed by another system.

Summary: A low pressure will likely spin up in the western Carribean of East Pac later this week. Conditions may be favorable for this system to develop into a weak tropical system, that will move off towards the north.