Saturday/Saturday Night Severe...oh boy This Could be a Doosey...

A severe weather outbreak is expected in the southeast US starting tomorrow afternoon and lasting through Monday. The map above represents the severe weather risk for tomorrow through tomorrow night. Detailed discussion:

-A storm system will be developing in the Planes tomorrow. It will pull north a lot of Gulf moisture into the southeast. A strong cold front will be plunging south into the hot and humid air mass and storms will fire.

-Tomorrow afternoon a dry line will develop and move through central/eastern TX and eastern/southeastern OK. Some of the models (especially GFS) are showing limited development, due to some capping along the dry line. However, I believe this is incorrect because dew points will be in the 60s/70s along the dry line, CAPEs will be anywhere from 3,000-4,500, and LIs will be -7 to -12 along the dry line. It appears that this moisture will also be very deep. This should allow storms to break the cap along the dry line and explosive development is possible late afternoon/evening. All modes of severe appear likely, with HUGE hail (baseball of larger) possible in the stronger storms, along with a high tornado threat. The low level jet will not be exceptionally strong but there will be plenty of turning of the winds with height so storms will rotate late tomorrow.

-Late tomorrow evening the cold front will catch up to the dry line. At this point in time the low level jet will be roaring along and behind the cold front as much cooler air comes in. This will likely cause linear development along the cold front tomorrow night across S. Missouri/SE Arkansas/Louisiana/east Texas. Hail and very strong winds will be the main threats but the tornado threat will still be there, although it will be smaller. This activity will quickly shift ESE through the night and will likely form into an organized MCS with a long lasting damaging wind threat throughout the night.

-Farther north along the cold front in Missouri and into IL/IN there will be marginal instability and moisture, but with such a strong cold front coming in that will likely be sufficient for a thunderstorm threat with localized damage winds.

-Tomorrow morning I will re-assess and may consider a HIGH risk.