Sunday-Sunday Night Severe Weather

Another active severe day tomorrow. Here is what I expect to happen:

-Setup: A low pressure system will be tracking across the US/Canadian border, trailing a cold front south through much of the central US. Warm, humid air will be building ahead of the cold front, with cooler drier air coming in behind it.

-Severe Ingredients: Dew points will reach into the 60s, as far north as MN, and will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s from IL/IA points south. CAPEs will be above 2500 into MN/WI, and will reach 4000+ in western IL, IA, and northern MO. LIs will also be anywhere from -7 to -11 in the warm sector from MN/WI down to near the Gulf Coast. These are all very good for severe WX. But, there will be a couple of limiting factors: A cap, especially farther south of the moderate risk, and little wind shear south of the moderate risk. This will keep things from getting out of control south of the moderate risk zone, but in the moderate risk the cap will be weaker and wind shear will be much higher so organized severe weather is expected in the moderate risk area.

-Forecast: Not too much convection is expected be ongoing tomorrow morning in the risk areas, maybe some weak convection along the cold front. However, tomorrow afternoon as further destabilization occurs in the warm sector, storms will start firing along and ahead of the cold front. With the high instability, severe weather is possible anywhere in the warm sector, especially near the cold front. The main modes of severe will be large hail and damaging winds. However, near in in the moderate risk, wind shear will be higher, so storms will be more organized and the tornado threat will be higher than elsewhere in the warm sector. In the moderate risk area the storms may organize into organized complex(s) or storms, or an MCS tomorrow evening which will rapidly track east tomorrow night. Again, south of the moderate risk just scattered strong to severe storms and nothing too organized.

NOTE: I really haven't been able to cover severe weather over the past few days due to being very busy, but hopefully will be able to cover it slightly better over the next couple of days.