Tuesday Severe

Severe map discussion for Tuesday-Tuesday night:

The bottom map represents the severe setup. As you can see moisture will be pooling. It also shows where the focus areas will be...the dry line, cold front, and the warm front will also be the focal point of some convection. Along the dry line, drier air will meet up with dew points of 63-68. Also, winds will be SSE across ahead of the dry line and SSW behind it. This convergence, along with high dew points, LIs of -5 to -9, CAPEs of 1000+, and increasing wind shear will likely cause convection to fire late tomorrow afternoon along the dry line. The convection will likely become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornado threats. Storms will be isolated to scattered along the dry line but they will be super cells with the potential for extreme severe weather (70MPH+ straight line winds, 2"+ hail, or tornadoes). Along the cold front diving south into the NW Planes, moisture will also be pooling with dew points into the 60-66 range. There will also be converging winds along this boundary, LIs of -5 to -9, CAPEs of 2000+, however the jet stream will not be that strong. So, I think that storms will begin developing in the warm sector ahead of the cold front late afternoon. It looks like very large hail is possible, along with isolated damaging downdraft winds. A few tornadoes are possible also with winds coming at different directions at different heights...although they will not be extremely strong. Along the cold front as the jet stream strengthens at night the storms may organize into a MCC. Some flooding is possible because a MCC can dump inches of rain over a large area quickly. Along the warm front in the lower Great Lakes and into Wisconsin some moisture will be pooling, but DPs will only be in the 50-55 range, and CAPEs will only be in the 200-500 range. These values are rather unfavorable for severe weather, but with very cold air aloft and low freezing levels, lapse rates will be steep and any convection could produce small hail.