Severe Update

The map above is a forecast verification map...more details below...
Very strong storms are occurring in western KY, TN, SE AR, and northern Mississippi. But why are the storms in northern IL under performing? And what will happen tonight? How do I rate my performance so far? Answers below!
The highest instability is south of IL, and in the areas where I said the strongest storms occurring. Farther north, instability and moisture is marginal for severe weather. Wind shear is very strong over the whole system. So, where there is lower instability there are strong storms with small hail and isolated damaging winds, but where there is more instability there are strong storms with huge hail, damaging winds and at times tornadoes. Tonight, the storms in IL/IN may form into a broken squall line with an isolated severe threat, but I think what will likely happen is they will slowly weaken as we go through tonight. Farther south, super cells are likely through the rest of this evening, but I think they will organize into a squall line with more of a damaging wind threat as the storms push east tonight. How do I rate my performance? Yesterday, I give myself an A. The worst severe weather was exactly where I put the moderate risk, the squall line developed in the evening as I expected, however, for 1-2 hours the super cells along the dry line got a little more widespread than I though, but it was still evident that a strong cap was in place because after sundown the dry line storms weakened. Today I give myself a B-/C+. I was suspecious of the instability in IL, but, I though for sure a squall line would get going by this evening with maybe some super cells ahead of the squall line. However, the squall line is just getting going now in mid evening, with no super cells. Considering I had most of IL in a hatched zone and moderate risk that will take quite a few points off of my metaphoric grade. However, farther south I made up for it. I nailed the AR/KY/TN threats. However, I did not extend the moderate risk farther east so a few more "points" off. Overall I nailed Thursday but busted in IL Friday. What I learned and need to get into my head is that clouds will limit the severe threat. This is not the first outbreak where I have busted in one area because of clouds limiting instability.