Friday/Friday Night: Special Advanced Release Map

Here is my Friday-Friday night severe weather outlook. This is still a couple days away, but here is my best guess as to what will happen: The morning MCS will affect MI/northern PA/NY. This will limit instability in these areas due to the cloud cover and rain it will bring with it. However, south of those areas, and behind the cold front, in IN, IL, southern WI, MI, and IA should see some sun and moisture will be building throughout the day. This will allow instability to increase with CAPE values in a lot of areas of 2000+ (favorable for severe), and LIs of less than -6 (favorable for severe). This will let scattered storms explode in those areas (western 2/3 of moderate risk). This, along with the strong wind shear will cause an enhanced damaging wind and tornado threat, and the high instability will also cause a large hail threat on Friday. Late Friday afternoon/early evening, as the storms are initializing in the areas mentioned above super cellular storms are possible, especially as the storms are initializing. The storms will rapidly start moving east due to the fast flow aloft, and organize into a MCS during the evening over eastern IL/eastern WI/NW MI, and rapidly race east with a pronounced damaging wind threat and flood threat, especially due to the strong southerly flow in the lower levels, which will enhance the wind threat and bring up plenty of moisture to allow for heavy rains. Late evening into the overnight the MCS will race east through eastern IN and Ohio. By late Friday night the MCS should move into PA. Instability will be marginal but a 850MB (5,000 feet above sea level) jet will be roaring at 60 knots out of the SSW should allow the storms to continue with a heavy rain and damaging wind threat much of the night through PA. By Saturday morning the MCS should be approaching the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England. It should begin to weaken by then as it will be moving into even more stable air and the low level jet will weaken some.

FYI: I am not happy about this but I will not be able to get on my computer until late tomorrow, but at 8-830pm Thursday I will post my normal daily forecasts. Stay tuned for that, and feel free to reaf Thursday's forecasts below.