Thursday, May 8, 2008

Saturday-Tuesday Storm

A quick and simple forecast map and expected evolution of this storm. This could be a decent late season Nor' Easter, with a classic secondary and everything. The GFS ensemble and EURO are in very good agreement on the track of the low, so I am fairly confident in it at this time. At this point I think the more conservative EURO is going to win out over the stronger GFS in the strength department, because this is not winter and it is very hard to get such a strong storm this time of year because the temperature extremes are a little bit less extreme. I will not try to guess at rainfall amounts at this time, but will likely be making an early map for that tomorrow. This storm will also be pulling in unseasonably cold air so maybe some of the higher mountains in New England could see a couple snow flakes mixed in Monday night, but it will not be a big deal and it is also not a done deal by any means, but that is what I will be looking at this weekend. There is also a severe threat in the south that will need to be addressed over the next couple of days.

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