Sunday, May 11, 2008

Severe Weather: Updated Map and Discussion:

Severe weather is ongoing across SE Georgia/SE South Carolina. This will be moving off the coast soon but I have issued a moderate risk for it.
-A cold front will be moving SE today through the southeast. There is plenty of moisture/wind shear along it for severe weather...the question is: Will the area destabilize enough? I believe it will take all of this morning and even into this afternoon to start seeing some severe threat along the front, because we need to destabilize the atmosphere after last night's/this mornings storms. However, once we get things going all modes of severe seem possible, however with a strong jet blasting over the area damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the bigger threats. Hail will occur in stronger storms, but with less day time heating than some of the areas saw yesterday we shouldn't see hail bigger than gulf balls in the strongest storms. Even though last nights MCS is only affecting a very small area of the SE, I have put a lot of the eastern Carolina's into a moderate risk because things will have most of this afternoon to destabilize, and there will still be plenty of low level jet stream energy in this area, so this is where the most significant severe WX is expected today.

No comments: