Thursday, May 29, 2008

More Severe WX Expected Friday/Friday Night

On Friday/Friday night another major severe weather outbreak is expected in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, lower Great Lakes, and parts of the Ohio valley. Here is what I expect to happen:
Tomorrow destabilization will occur in the warm sector south of a cold front. CAPEs will be 2000+ (good for severe), LIs will be -6 to -10 (good severe) and wind shear will be high. This will allow storms to explode in northern MO, SE IA, IL, southern WI, and western IN. With high wind shear and instability huge hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be big threats. Tomorrow late afternoon/early evening as the storms are just initializing, super cells are very possible, especially in the moderate risk with tornadoes. Tomorrow evening, the storms will organize into a MCS over IL/IN, and rapidly move east through extreme southern Michigan, Ohio, and into PA with a damaging wind and flood threat as it goes along, due to the strong low level jet. Tomorrow night the MCS will weaken some as it moves into an area of much less instability. The severe threat will persist in the Ohio Valley/NE/Mid Atlantic Saturday.
FYI: My next post will be Friday around 4, analyzing tomorrows outbreak, and forecasting Saturday's outbreak.
Parts of northern KS (Glen Elder area) may have just gotten hit by a strong tornado. Unfortunetly I will not be able to look into this more until Friday afternoon.

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