Saturday: Severe Shifts Into the Northeast

Before my discussion, here is what the numbers on the map mean. The %'s are the chances of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point. That means if you pick a point, that is the probability that severe weather will occur within 25 miles of it. Here is my discussion:
A cold front will continue to push south, now into the Northeast, southern Planes, and the Ohio Valley. Instability will be growing south of it, and moisture will be plentiful. The question is, where will the best instability be and best wind shear will be. I believe that from the Ohio river and points SW along the front, instability will be pretty high with CAPEs of 1500-2500. LIs will also be below -5 in that area. So in the risk zones from the Ohio river points SW, hail and locally damaging winds will be possible with any of the stronger storms. Wind shear will not be that high here so tornadoes are not a big threat. In the Northeast/Mid Atlantic, the set up is a little more complicated with questions to where the extensive cloud cover will be and where the best shear will be. I believe that most of the NE, from central PA/central NJ northward will have mostly cloudy skies most of the day from tonight's leftovers. This will really limit instability. However, south of that area, there will be more sun, dew points will be in the upper 60s, which will allow CAPEs of up to 2000, and LIs of as low as -6. These numbers will allow storms to bubble up in the moderate risk area, and with the wind shear damaging winds and tornadoes, along with large hail are all threats in this area. I believe that the storms will fire along the cold front in mid Afternoon, and become severe fairly quickly. These storms will fire in SE PA, MD, and western VA and move ENE quickly. There could very well be an organized line of storms along the cold front with discrete super cellular storms ahead of it. Farther north, instability will be lower, so the severe threat will be lower. If those areas can get some sun in the afternoon, scattered storms will develop along the front, but moisture will be a little lower, instability will be lower, and shear will be slightly lower, so farther north the severe threat is there but not as high as the mid Atlantic.

Severe Outbreak Getting Going

A tornado watch has been issued from MO-IL-IN. Storms are already firing in it, and will likely grow in size and strength this evening. Tornadoes are a big threat, along with damaging winds, and hail. As I have been saying the storms will be more super-cellular in nature early in the evening, but by late evening will organize into a complex of storms that will rapidly move east overnight with a damaging wind threat.

If You Are in a Severe Risk Area Today...

Another large severe weather outbreak is expected today. If you live in an area outlined in my previous post, of by your local weathermen keep your eyes to the sky late this afternoon and this evening. You can also check the warning box on the right side of my blog or your local news stations to see if severe weather is moving your way. I will not be able to update around 4, but stay safe until then.

More Severe WX Expected Friday/Friday Night

On Friday/Friday night another major severe weather outbreak is expected in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, lower Great Lakes, and parts of the Ohio valley. Here is what I expect to happen:
Tomorrow destabilization will occur in the warm sector south of a cold front. CAPEs will be 2000+ (good for severe), LIs will be -6 to -10 (good severe) and wind shear will be high. This will allow storms to explode in northern MO, SE IA, IL, southern WI, and western IN. With high wind shear and instability huge hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be big threats. Tomorrow late afternoon/early evening as the storms are just initializing, super cells are very possible, especially in the moderate risk with tornadoes. Tomorrow evening, the storms will organize into a MCS over IL/IN, and rapidly move east through extreme southern Michigan, Ohio, and into PA with a damaging wind and flood threat as it goes along, due to the strong low level jet. Tomorrow night the MCS will weaken some as it moves into an area of much less instability. The severe threat will persist in the Ohio Valley/NE/Mid Atlantic Saturday.
FYI: My next post will be Friday around 4, analyzing tomorrows outbreak, and forecasting Saturday's outbreak.

Parts of northern KS (Glen Elder area) may have just gotten hit by a strong tornado. Unfortunetly I will not be able to look into this more until Friday afternoon.

Alma Named in East Pacific Late Last Night

Last night the organized area of low pressure in the eastern Pacific was named TD 1, and quickly become TS Alma. It is moving into Central America now, and will likely become disorganized over land. It will likely not move back out into the East Pac over the next few days. Flooding and gusty winds are likely over Central America as it slowly moves to the N and then NW.

As Expected, Severe WX Outbreak Ongoing, HIGH Risk Even Issued

A large severe weather outbreak is ongoing in the central Planes, and with extreme instability and wind shear lots of storms are quickly developing, and a lot of them are trying to drop tornadoes. This will continue this evening. Here is my forecast:

The organized clusters of super cell thunderstorms in northern KS, eastern NB, and getting into parts of west IA will continue to bring a tornado threat, especially with newly developing storms. Some strong tornadoes are still possible through the evening. However, as time goes on the storms will organize into a complex of severe storms, or a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). This will rapidly move ENE throughout the night, through IA, southern MN, northern MO, and into IL and WI. It will pose a damaging wind and flooding rain threat throughout the night. With the strong moist southerly flow persisting over the Planes from the Gulf, storms will continue back building over night, so parts of KS, MO, and southern IA, and SW NB could see hours of heavy rain along with a severe threat over night, as the storms continue to train. I will have tomorrow's outlook soon.

Friday/Friday Night: Special Advanced Release Map

Here is my Friday-Friday night severe weather outlook. This is still a couple days away, but here is my best guess as to what will happen: The morning MCS will affect MI/northern PA/NY. This will limit instability in these areas due to the cloud cover and rain it will bring with it. However, south of those areas, and behind the cold front, in IN, IL, southern WI, MI, and IA should see some sun and moisture will be building throughout the day. This will allow instability to increase with CAPE values in a lot of areas of 2000+ (favorable for severe), and LIs of less than -6 (favorable for severe). This will let scattered storms explode in those areas (western 2/3 of moderate risk). This, along with the strong wind shear will cause an enhanced damaging wind and tornado threat, and the high instability will also cause a large hail threat on Friday. Late Friday afternoon/early evening, as the storms are initializing in the areas mentioned above super cellular storms are possible, especially as the storms are initializing. The storms will rapidly start moving east due to the fast flow aloft, and organize into a MCS during the evening over eastern IL/eastern WI/NW MI, and rapidly race east with a pronounced damaging wind threat and flood threat, especially due to the strong southerly flow in the lower levels, which will enhance the wind threat and bring up plenty of moisture to allow for heavy rains. Late evening into the overnight the MCS will race east through eastern IN and Ohio. By late Friday night the MCS should move into PA. Instability will be marginal but a 850MB (5,000 feet above sea level) jet will be roaring at 60 knots out of the SSW should allow the storms to continue with a heavy rain and damaging wind threat much of the night through PA. By Saturday morning the MCS should be approaching the Mid Atlantic and Southern New England. It should begin to weaken by then as it will be moving into even more stable air and the low level jet will weaken some.

FYI: I am not happy about this but I will not be able to get on my computer until late tomorrow, but at 8-830pm Thursday I will post my normal daily forecasts. Stay tuned for that, and feel free to reaf Thursday's forecasts below.

Thursday/Thursday Night Severe

A low pressure will be developing in the western Planes tomorrow, bring heat and humidity northward and strengthening the upper level winds, which will increase wind shear. Down in west TX, OK, and eastern NM, and SE CO a dry line will be the focal point of isolated storms tomorrow. Wind shear will be high enough so some severe storms, with tornadoes will be a threat along that dry line. Farther north, heat, humidity will be building all day, which will allow instability to also get high. Also, wind shear will be increasing in the western Planes. So, late tomorrow evening instability will be very high and things will likely explode in SE SD, eastern NB, western IA, and SW MN. Wind shear will also really be increasing tomorrow evening, so I believe that the areas mentioned above (the moderate risk zone) will see widespread storms developing by early evening tomorrow, with large hail, an enhanced damaging wind potential, and an enhanced tornado potential will exist with the storms, as wind shear will be high and instability will be very high. Late in the evening, the storms (which may be super cellular early in the evening) will likely organize into a complex of severe storms, or a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). Once the storms organize into an MCS high winds will be the biggest threat along with flooding. The MCS will race east overnight, likely getting into Michigan by Friday morning.

Thursday Forecast

Mild weather will dominate the northeast. It will be cool to start with more frosts/freezes in the interior, but it will rebound nicely to near normal conditions by afternoon with mostly sunny skies. Day 1 of a 3 day severe weather outbreak will take place tomorrow in the Planes, with a storm threat along with warm and humid conditions. The NW will chill down a bit with a north flow developing behind this system, with some rain also possible in the NW. Tomorrow's severe map will be out by 7-730PM EDT.

Tropical Development in Caribbean or Eastern Pacific?

An area of low pressure has developed just off the Central America coast in the Eastern Pacific. Right now, it is just drifting around and not going anywhere. Right now, it is near land and not in a faverable spot to develop into anything named. It is expected to remain that way for a while. Now, will this low head into the Atlantic side of Central America and perhaps threaten the US? I dought it. There is a lot of ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and the southern US, so this should keep this system out of the Atlantic. However, in 8-10 days the ridging will weaken and the pattern will remain favorable for the possibility of another low spinning up near Central America, so in 10-14+ days we may need to monitor for another possible tropical system near the US or Mexico. So, to sum it all up, here is my forecast: An area of low pressure has spun up near Central America over the Eastern Pacific. This low is drifting around, and is expected to continue to drift N-NW over the next few days. Wind shear is low enough for tropical development, and water temps are warm enough, but this system will remain close to Central America and Mexico, so there is less than a 25% chance in my opinion of a named storm coming out of this. Even though this low may not be named, its close proximaty to land and slow movement will cause possibly deadly flooding over Central America and eventually Mexico. Down the road (10-14+days out) another low may spin up near Central America, and may eventually threaten the US. I will have a more detailed look at tomorrow's severe by 6-630PM EDT.

Preview of Late Week Severe Storms

For now this is just a brief preview, but later this week, Thursday-Sunday there could be a major severe weather outbreak, with tornadoes being a threat. I posted the GFS forecast for Thursday evening, showing some activity in the Planes. I also posted the SPC outlooks for this time period, and large areas are outlined, especially for Friday-Saturday. Now, what the setup is going to be: Late Thursday, a low pressure will develop in the southern Planes, and move NE towards the southern Great Lakes by later Friday, then through New England on Saturday. Now, there will be plenty of instability south of the low, and there will be high amounts of wind shear in the warm sector as the low tracks NE. This could spark severe weather all along the track of this low. I will have more details on this over the next couple days, as if this pans out we could see another significant severe weather outbreak.

FYI: I will not be able to update this blog until about 4PM on Wednesday. But I will go into more detail about the late week severe weather outbreak, update the forecasts for Thursday, and cover any more breaking weather news. Still feel free to read the posts below for forecasts for Wednesday, a brief look at the late week severe weather outbreak, and info on the weekend tornadoes. The Parkersburg tornado was rated an EF5 (see that post below).

Wednesday/Wednesday Night Severe

Here is my severe weather outlook for tomorrow and tomorrow night. The cold front that slid through the NE/Mid Atlantic today will still be affecting the deep south. There won't be much wind shear with this, but there will be plenty of moisture and high instability, which should lead to scattered to widespread storms tomorrow in the deep south, with a hail/high wind threat with the stronger storms. The tornado threat will be low, except for in TX/NM. An area of low pressure will begin to organize in that region late tomorrow, so wind shear may pick up some in that area, adding a small tornado threat. Other then that I believe that the TX/OK/NM area will see scattered storms developing tomorrow, with a hail/damaging wind threat in the stronger storms.
I need to step away from the computer for a bit, but over the next hour or so expect a post previewing the severe weather outbreak(?) that may occur later this week into the weekend, and if I have time I will detail the possibility of a tropical system developing within the next few days in the Caribbean.

Wednesday Forecast

Here is a look at Wednesday's forecast. In the Great Lakes/Northeast, it will be a very chilly start in the wake of a cold front. Frosts/freezes are possible, so if you happen to be under a frost advisory/freeze warning, heed it and cover up any tender vegetation. In the areas behind the front tomorrow, it will recover some in the afternoon under partly to mostly sunny skies, but highs tomorrow will be 5-15 degrees below normal behind the front. The same front will bring more showers/storms to the south, along with warm and humid conditions south of the front also. The west will continue to warm, but in the Pac NW there will be a west wind, which could bring some showers to the NW, and with some cooler air aloft there could even be some thunder in the afternoon there. I will have the severe wx forecast for tomorrow by 10:10PM EDT.

Current Severe WX Situation

We have a couple areas of severe concern this evening, western TX/maybe SE OK, and parts of the NE/Mid Atlantic.

Western TX/SE OK: As I said yesterday there is plenty of moisture and instability in this area, which is fueling storms, with large hail and damaging winds. However, wind shear is rather weak in this area so as I said yesterday just a very small tornado threat in this area. So, this evening scattered to at times widespread storms will continue in the same general area they are in now, perhaps spreading east-southeast a bit. The threats will continue to be large hail, damaging winds, isolated flooding, and maybe a renegade tornado. The storms will continue through this evening, but will slowly diminish later tonight.

Southern Northeast/Mid Atlantic: A cold front is sliding south through the area. As I said last night instability is marginal and wind shear is very low. But, with a strong cold front coming through storms have fired along the front this afternoon, with heavy rains, gusty winds, and dangerous lightning. But, severe weather with the front in the NE/Mid Atlantic has been very limited up to this point, and is expected to remain very limited this evening. The storms will continue to push SE tonight as the front pushes south, but should really weaken after sun down.

I will update tomorrow's forecasts soon.

Parkersburg Tornado Officially an EF5

An aerial view of a residential neighborhood in Parkersburg, Iowa, is seen a day after a tornado struck the town, Monday, May 26, 2008. This year is already the deadliest for tornadoes since 1998 and is on track to break records for the number of twisters too, the National Weather Service says. (AP Photo/Kevin Sanders)

The National Weather service survey team made it official today, the tornado that devastated Parkersburg, IA was a EF5 tornado on the Enhanced Fujita scale, meaning it packed winds of 200+MPH. This is the first F5 tornado in Iowa since 1976. Earlier, there were some rumors saying that the town of Parkersburg would be bulldozed over. Those rumors are not true, according to Parkersburg city officials. Here is a video taken of the tornado by storm spotters, including what they saw when rolling into Parkersburg: Video
Here is the official release from the NWS in Des Moines, IA.

Check Back Tomorrow Evening

Unfortunetly I will be away from my computer until 8 Tuesday evening, so I will not be able to post until then. Still, feel free to read the posts below. There is a wealth of links to important information, stories, pictures, ect of Sunday's deadly tornado outbreak. There are also forecasts for Tuesday. Tuesday evening I do expect to post:
1. Any new info about Sunday's deadly tornadoes
2. The forecasts for Wednesday
3. Preview the possible outbreak this weekend
4. If I have time, I will preview the possible tropical system later this week. That's right, it's that time of year again!

Tuesday/Tuesday Night Severe

Well, tomorrow looks like things will really calm down tomorrow severe weather wise. We have some areas where there is a small risk of severe weather. In the northeast, there will be a cold front coming southward. To me, this really looks non-impressive severe wise for the NE. That slight risk is a very low end slight risk in my opinion. Instability tomorrow will be OK, with some peaks of sun expected, and moisture will be OK with dew points in the lower to maybe middle 60s. So, with the front coming through in the afternoon some showers and storms will develop, but I do not think many of them will get severe. Again, instablity will be OK, but not great, and there will really be no wind shear in the Northeast tomorrow. So, maybe some small hail and gusty downdraft winds with the strongest storms in the northeast tomorrow. In the south, a wave of low pressure will be riding along the same cold front. However, things in the south are also not great for severe weather. There will be almost no wind shear, however, moisture and instability will be plentiful in the southern Mississippi Valley area slight risk. So, I think that scattered showers/storms will develop in that area in the afternoon, with hail and isolated damaging winds in the stronger storms in the south. So tomorrow, everyone will get a chance to catch there breath with really no threat for tornadoes anywhere in the continental US.

Tuesday Forecast

Here is a quick look at tomorrow's forecast. A cold front will be moving through the NE/Mid Atlantic, and some strong storms could develop. Another wave of low pressure, the one bringing severe weather tonight to the southern Planes will move east, sparking some more rainy/stormy conditions. Some storms in the deep south could get strong tomorrow afternoon but it will not get out of control. The west will remain a little bit unstable so some showers are possible, but it will be getting a little warmer in the west.

Severe Weather Ongoing in OK, KS, TX, and AR

We have quite a few severe thunderstorms in the southern Planes this evening. There have been several tornado warnings but so far none of the storms have looked like they have produced severe damage, although the one that is now near Ponka/Newkirk, OK at the moment looks like it may as it looks impressive on radar and is moving through populated areas. More on that later if anything comes out of it. So, you can see above where the storms are now, and where the watches and warning are. But where will the storms threaten later this evening and tonight? Well, it looks like over the next 2-4 hours, there will be isolated storms in SW TX with a hail, wind and tornado threat due to a dry line in that area. Now, in far north TX, western and northern OK, and south/central Kansas is the big threat zone. Wind shear is much high in that area, and that area has more moisture and is more unstable. So, widespread storms will continue to affect that area, with all modes of severe, including the chance of some strong tornadoes will be possible in that area. Later this evening, as the storms become more organized and jet stream energy continues to strengthen, these storms will organize into a complex of storms or a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). This will move ESE through SE Kansas, eastern OK, and maybe skirting far northern TX. This complex of storms may also end up in far SE MO/western AR later tonight. These storms will bring a tornado threat through the evening, but as the night goes on the threat with these storms will transform into more of a damaging wind threat. Flooding is also possible with this complex of storms. Of less concern is an area of storms in AR along an old outflow boundary. Wind shear is not that high, but with very high instability some hail/strong winds are possible with any storms. These storms should slowly dissipate late this evening. There is also a cold front moving through the lower GLs/NW New England. Some storms are trying to fire but the severe threat along this front this evening remains rather low.

Coon Rapids, MN Tornado an EF1...Hugo, MN Tornado and EF3

"A path of destruction is seen after a severe storm swept through Hugo, Minn. on Sunday, May 25, 2008. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)"

The preliminary damage survey is done in the Twin Cities area, and it appears that there were two tornadoes spawned from the same storm north of the Twin Cities. The first tornado affected the Coon Rapids area. Here is part of the NWS statement regaurding the tornado: "THE FIRST TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN COON RAPIDS AND LIFTED IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF BLAINE. THIS TORNADO PRODUCED EF1 DAMAGE...LIKELY CAUSED BY WINDS BETWEEN 86 AND 110 MPH." The second tornado was longer tracked, stronger, and was the one that took the life of a 2 year old toddler. This was the Hugo, MN tornado. Here is part of the the NWS regarding this tornado: "THE SECOND...AND MOST DAMAGING...TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF LINO LAKES...CONTINUING THROUGH THE COMMUNITY OF HUGO. THIS TORNADO PRODUCED EF3 DAMAGE...LIKELY RESULTING FROM TORNADIC WINDS IN THE 136 TO 165 MPH RANGE. THE SURVEY TEAM HAS NOT YET DETERMINED WHERE THIS SECOND TORNADO TERMINATED...AND FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF DAMAGE REPORTS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL BE UNDERTAKEN TOMORROW...TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE TORNADO CONTINUED INTO THAT AREA." Again, if there is any more new info tomorrow I will post it here.

Storms in KS, OK, NW TX Only to Get Worse This Evening

A piece of energy will ride along the cold front this evening, sparking more severe storms in TX, OK, and KS. There is a growing amount of wind shear, so severe weather is very possible in the areas outlined above. I expect large hail, damaging winds, and yes, even the threat of more possibly destructive tornadoes this evening, especially in the red shaded area.

PS: Sorry about not posting this sooner and not being more detailed in my discussion, but I have been busy today still posting info on yesterdays deadly twisters and have just been busy otherwise with family/friends/what not on this holiday.

Prelimanry Rating For Parkersburg Tornado: EF3+

"A tattered American flag sits atop a mound of debris at a destroyed convenience store in Parkersburg, Iowa, on Monday, May 26, 2008, a day after a tornado struck the town.(AP Photo/Kevin Sanders)"

A preliminary survey from the NWS in Des Moines, IA concluded that the tornado that affected the Parkersburg, IA area was at least an EF3 on the Enhanced Fujita scale, possibly higher. The tornado's path was 43 miles long and up to 1.2 miles wide. Prilimanry fatalities stand at 7, preliminary injuries stand at around 70. At the end of the NWS preliminary statement it said: "ADDITIONAL DETAIL WILL BE ADDED TO THIS REPORT ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH FINAL EF SCALE RATING RESULTS." So, that basically means that tomorrow we will know the exact details regarding track and strength.

I found the AP slide show of storm damage from the Parkersburg IA, and Hugo, MN area tornadoes, and the pictures are truly devastating. You can view all 50+ pictures at this location:

http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Storms-hit-Iowa-Minn/ss/events/us/052508tornadoeskan;_ylt=AkpO5ZeNTe77ktcnwE7C14Gs0NUE#photoViewer=/080526/photos_ts_afp/a7eea6d72cf32bb4c4d1db54335274d8

Total Stats So Far From This 4 Day Outbreak

The outbreak still is on-going, with a severe threat still for today/tonight, but how has it added up so far? Well, so far there have been four pretty active days, with yesterday by far having the most severe reports. So far, since Thursday we have had 172 tornado reports and 952 wind/hail reports (not including today). So, this has been a widespread, long lived severe weather outbreak that has brought thousands of severe reports. I will update these stats later this week after this outbreak concludes (we have to get through tomorrow first).

Some More Info on Hugo, MN Tornado

Here is a link to some areal coverage of the Hugo tornado (near the Twin Cities). Some houses were heavily damaged. One death has been confirmed from this tornado. Unfortunately it was a two year old toddler.

http://kstp.com/article/stories/s455844.shtml?cat=63v=1

This story I posted last night in its entirety, but it has been updated. According to the story about 50 homes have been destroyed in Hugo, MN.

http://wcco.com/weathernewsstories/severe.thunderstorms.minnesota.2.732463.html

Before barreling through Hugo, MN, the storm brought a tornado to the Coon, MN area. Two people were injured.

http://www.kare11.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=512067

Here is a video report from that site:

http://www.kare11.com/video/player.aspx?aid=72067&bw=

Here is another article. According to the article, one death has occurred and 8 injuries have been reported because of the tornado. It is estimated that at least 50 homes were destroyed and another 100 were seriously damaged. Read the whole article below. There is also a link to a photo gallery on this site:

http://www.startribune.com/19246464.html

Here is the story from the Fox station in the Twin Cities. It has information including damage statistics, and links to photo galleries from the storm.

http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/myfox/pages/Home/Detail?contentId=6625596&version=3&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=1.1.1

Here is a related story from the Associated Press:

http://www.thedickinsonpress.com/ap/index.cfm?page=view&id=D90T084O3

The storm also reported gulf ball-baseball sized hail and damaging straight line winds along with the tornadoes.

More Details Come Out About Parkersburg, IA Tornado

AP Photo/Kevin Sanders
The above picture is what is left of a house in Parkersburg. Nothing left, just a foundation. You can't even tell where the rest of the house is. There isn't even a pile of debris. The tornado was just that strong.

The above picture is from a home video shot as the tornado approached Parkersburg, Iowa yesterday evening. The full story and video can be read and watched by clicking the below line. But, the story says that as of this morning "A tornado killed seven people and injured at least 50 others as it pushed through the town of Parkersburg near Cedar Falls Sunday night.
Five of the deaths were in the town of Parkersburg and two were in New Hartford. Unfortunately it says "officials are still searching damaged properties, and that the death toll and injury numbers could climb." So, it does not look good out of the Parkersburg area this morning. From everything I have looked at, it unfortunately appears that the southern half of town was wiped out, which is just terrible. Again the link immediately below this text is to the whole story and video of the tornado and damage.

http://www.kcci.com/news/16391215/detail.html

The next link is to some very revealing areal shots taken by a chopper yesterday evening over Parkersburg. It shows that this tornado was truly devastating.

http://www.whotv.com/global/video/flash/popupplayer.asp?ClipID1=2524497&h1=13Raw%3A%20Chopper%2013%20Video%20--%20Parkersburg%20Flattened&vt1=v&at1=News&d1=285067&LaunchPageAdTag=News&activePane=info&rnd=34160051

Here is the related story from the news station that had the chopper shots in the link above:

http://www.whotv.com/global/story.asp?s=8378124

The next link below has another video showing the extreme damage, and has another related story, including a couple of witness accounts of what happened.

http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/19252984.html/

This next story is a bit brief, but it shows that this tornado was fairly long tracked, and that the damage was not limited to Parkersburg. It also has a few damage pics.

http://www.kwwl.com/Global/story.asp?S=8378690

This next story goes into detail about the damage near Dunkerton, IA. That city was hit by a deadly tornado back in 2000. There are also some damage pics and a link to a video report in the upper left corner.

http://www.kwwl.com/global/story.asp?s=8378707

Here is a video report out of North Waterloo, IA.

http://www.kwwl.com/global/video/flash/popupplayer.asp?ClipID1=2525048&h1=Waterloo%20Storm%20Damage&vt1=v&at1=News&d1=48034&LaunchPageAdTag=News&activePane=info&rnd=11312563

Here is a detailed story from the Associated Press, along with a few damage photos:

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jW-BndswWuhgPAPXOK4Q6TCQsANQD90TANJ80

Here is another detailed story. I posted it in its entirty yesterday evening, but it has been updated and is now much more detailed.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080526/NEWS/805260324/-1/SPORTS0808

This storm not only produced large, damaging tornadoes, but there was also a 93MPH straight line wind gust measured at the Waterloo Airport, and softball-grapefruit sized hail was also reported with this storm.

Chicago Under the gun Tonight?

It could get interesting in Chicago in a couple of hours:
There is a small bow echo rapidly moving ESE across northern IL, with a damaging wind threat. If it continues on its current corse and holds together Chicago could see some severe weather in a couple of hours. However, bow echos like this sometimes dive toward the south, so the brunt of the severe may be just south of Chicago. There is another batch of t-storms in central IA that is moving ENE, which may impact eastern IA, NE MO, and central IL over the next few hours. High winds are also the biggest threat there.

So, if I lived in or near Chicago, what would I do? Keep my weather radio ready, and be ready to act if any warnings come in in the middle of the night.

Monday/Monday Night Severe

The same system will bring severe weather to the same areas tomorrow, just shifted a little farther southeast. The biggest area of concern is in Kansas, where a little stronger jet streak will move through tomorrow evening. If storms can fire, which is likely in that area there could be some significant severe weather once again. In Texas, there will again be a severe threat along a dry line. There will also be a severe threat along the same cold front that brough tons of severe today from Missouri into southern Michigan, but tomorrow will be different than today. There will be clouds to limit instablity some, and not nearly as much shear as today. This will keep the severe threat relativly small, however if some sun breaks out there will be scattered storms, some of which severe developing tomorrow afternoon along the cold front. Hail, high winds, and isolated tornadoes will all be threats. On a side note, I would not be surprised to see some high winds, or even a tornado or two in upstate New York, with the same jet max that brough all the severe weather today moving across that area. But, due to limited instablity it would not get out of hand like it did today.

Memorial Day Forecast

It has been a very active weekend, with lots of severe weather in the central US. For the holiday, is looks like that will continue, with severe weather possible from parts of NY back to Texas. It could rain on a lot of people's parades tomorrow, with at least a 30% chance of rain for much of the nation (anywhere colored is a 30%+ chance of rain). It will be warm in the south, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast, but cooler in the upper Great Lakes and Midwest behind a cold front. The southwest will warm some but it will not get too hot. The Rockies will remain cool with a chance of showers, and the northwest will also warm a little to seasonable conditions with only small rain chances.

Some Links for the Twin Cities Area Tornadoes

http://wcco.com/
http://www.kstp.com/
http://www.kare11.com/
http://www.channel4000.com/index.html
http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/myfox/
http://www.startribune.com/local/19246464.html?location_refer=Taste
http://www.thedickinsonpress.com/ap/index.cfm?page=view&id=D90T084O3
http://www.kxmb.com/News/241809.asp
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jW-BndswWuhgPAPXOK4Q6TCQsANQD90T03E00

Some Links to Info on Waterloo, IA Area Tornadoes

I do not want to be posting each story in its full context as they come out so, here are some links:
http://www.wcfcourier.com/articles/2008/05/25/news/top_story/doc4839f26069e5c347098257.txt
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080525/NEWS/80525003/-1/BUSINESS04
http://www.gazetteonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080525/NEWS/326681311/1006
http://www.kcci.com/news/16391215/detail.html
http://www.kcrg.com/
http://www.kcrg.com/news/streaming/10476432.html?video=pop&t=a (streaming live, for now)
http://www.kwwl.com/
http://www.kimt.com/news/local/19250124.html

Damage Reports Out of Parkersburg Don't Look Good

I have been searching and Google News finally showed a story out of Parkersburg, IA. It does not look good. Unfortunetly no pictures accompany story but the article below does paint a pretty desestaiting image. Story below:

"Tornado takes out Parkersburg high school

A tornado about a mile wide left behind extensive damage, injuries and possible fatalities in northeast Iowa early this evening, officials said.The tornado ripped off the roof of the high school in Parkersburg and took out sections of the building, said Superintendent Jon Thompson.The high school will never be used again, he said.Houses to the south of the high school were also flattened, Thompson said.The parking lot at the high school was turned into a triage center, and district officials this evening opened up the middle school in Aplington and an elementary school in Parkersburg as shelters.The tornado moved between 5:30 and 6:15 p.m. from Aplington to New Hartford to the north side of Waterloo and then into Dunkerton, according to Miles Schumacher, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.Schumacher said more than one tornado probably touched down, but most of the damage was caused by the mile-wide tornado.The Waterloo airport reported wind speeds of 93 mph, Schumacher said.This storm system caused the most damage in Iowa so far this year. Tornadoes hit southern Iowa on April 10, causing damage but no injuries.Gary Frank, an elder at First Congregational church in Parkersburg also offered up shelter.“You can’t even tell anything has happened here, but just two blocks up the street its total devastation,” he said.The major damage occurred on the south side of the town’s main strip, Frank said. Downed power lines, roofless buildings and emergency vehicles filled the street this evening while residents remained inside. “I think people are still in a state of shock,” he said.Power lines have also been knocked down in the area, leaving many residents without power.This evening, Iowa State Patrol troopers are blocking the entrances to Parkersburg.A dispatcher with the Butler County sheriff’s department said authorities were investigating damage to a grain elevator that may have caused an anhydrous ammonia leak.
The Associated Press contributed to this article."
Source: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080525/NEWS/80525003/-1/SPORTS0806

A Quick Forecast For the Rest of Tonight's Severe Weather

STORMS IN WISCONSIN, AND STORMS IN IOWA HAVE BOTH DEVELOPED INTO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO CHARGE EAST WITH HIGH WIND THREAT, AND POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
The super cells that have and still are producing tornadoes across Minnesota and Iowa are developing into big complexes of storms, which could produce straight line wind damage. The complex that is now over north-central Wisconsin will charge east to maybe a little south of east over the next couple of hours. It will weaken as we loose day time heating and as the storms reach lake Michigan. The other complex of storms, in NE Iowa, NW IL, and far southern WI will continue to slide ESE, and the storms will continue to back build and train through the rest of the evening. This will bring a continued severe threats the areas I mentioned above, and increase a flooding threat. Due to very high wind shear there will be a high damaging wind threat for the next several hours, and also a tornado threat for the next couple of hours. This complex of storms has had a history of producing devastating tornadoes. I think this complex will bring some storms to Chicago. Will they hold together and still be severe? That is definitely a possibility. There is another area of storms, possibly tornadic at times in southern IL, eastern MO, and northern AR associated with a MCV. These will continue to drift ENE, with high winds, hail, tornadoes and flooding rains continuing to be threats as the night goes on. There is another MCS in Kansas along the cold front, which will bring a high wind, hail, and flooding threat as it moves east into Missouri, eastern KS, and even SW Iowa. There is another line of storms in the Texas Panhandle, along the dry line, with all modes of severe being possible. These should continue to be severe through around midnight, but after midnight the loss of day time heating should let these storms SLOWLY die down. Again, it has been such a busy evening, that is why I was not a little more detailed in my reasoning, and just said where I think these storms will go. I just don't have time, essentially. I am going to try to also squeeze in tomorrow's forecast within the next couple hours.

Another Deadly Tornado in Minnasota

These are just three of the pictures of the devestation in Hugo, MN, that was hit by a tornado on Sunday afternoon. More pictures can be seen by clicking on the slideshow link below.

Here is the story from WCCO in the Twin Cities: (link to the site I got it from below)

"2-Year-Old Killed, 20 Missing In Hugo Tornado

Slideshow: Overhead Images Of Hugo Devastation

HUGO, Minn. (AP) ― A town official says a 2-year-old child has died and 20 are missing after a severe storm swept through a St. Paul suburb.Hugo Fire Chief Jim Compton says another child in critical condition and transported to Regions Hospital in St. Paul and another eight people were taken to area hospitals with injuries.Hugo City Administrator Mike Ericson says at least one dozen homes were destroyed and another three dozen damaged.Residents reported a tornado touching down in the area, but that has not been confirmed by the National Weather Service."It's horrible," Ericson said. "The citizens are very shook and scared."Dozens of emergency crews descended on the town to look for those who have not been located and assess the damage. About 15,500 customers in the northeast metro area were without power, Xcel Energy Company said.Hugo Public Works Director Chris Petree said his family took shelter in the basement before the storm lifted his house off the ground and completely wiped out the second floor of the home."I put my daughter down first, my wife on top of her and then I bear-hugged on top of them," Petree said.The storm system started northwest of the Twin Cities and quickly spread across the north metro area from Albertville through Coon Rapids and Hugo to the northeast. The National Weather Service confirmed a tornado touched down in Coon Rapids, downing power lines and uprooting trees.Earlier in the afternoon, the most damaging effects of the storm system came from large hail, ranging from nickel-sized to baseball-sized as it pelted Monticello, Maple Lake and Albertville, where some windows in houses and car windshields were shattered.Almost 800 were powerless in the St. Cloud-Monticello area as well, Xcel said.Hugo appeared to be the hardest hit, with residents saying a tornado touched down near the city's downtown late Sunday afternoon. They reported large hail, high winds and torrential rains as the system blew through the town.As he huddled in his basement against a foundation wall with his wife and 2 1/2-year-old daughter, Petree said they heard the thunderous sound of their house coming off the ground."All you hear is glass breaking and wood tearing and breaking in half," Petree said.A tornado watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.Several counties are under the watch. They include Anoka, Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Dodge, Faribault, Fillmore, Freeborn, Goodhue, Hennepin, Houston, Isanti, Kandiyohi, LeSueur, Martin, McLeod, Meeker, Mower, Nicollet, Olmsted, ramsey, Renville, Rice, Scott, Sherburne, Sibley, Steele, Wabasha, Waseca, Washington, Watonwan, Winona and Wright counties."

Source: http://wcco.com/weathernewsstories/severe.thunderstorms.minnesota.2.732463.html

Waterloo, IA Area Hammered

This evening I have been tracking a long track, large, and destructive tornado that touched down near Parkersburg, IA, tracked just north of Waterloo, near or over Oelwien, Dunkertown, Cedar Falls, Fairbank, near or over Strawberry Point, near or over Hazeltown, near or over New Hartford, near or over Manchester, and now as of this writing Dyrsville has just got hammered, and now the possible tornado is coming close to Debuque, IA. (Pardon any misspellings of city names) There have been other tornadoes times near the main tornado, and other smaller communities not mentioned above have been impacted. There has been heavy damage reported all along the path of this storm, with the heaviest damage reported in Parkersburg, IA where "you can't tell that homes were ever there" in parts of the town. As of around 8:30PM there have been a lot of injury reports and so far one un-confirmed fatality. I will update this later.

Evening Severe Discussion

HIGH TORNADO THREAT TO PERSIST THIS EVENING IN EASTERN IOWA, EASTERN MINASOTA, WESTERN WISCONSON, AND WESTERN ILINOIS. As was feared earlier today, storms have fired in Iowa and Minnasota this afternoon. So far they have only been isolated super cells, but some major damage reports have come out of them. More storms are expected to develop in this area this evening, as the stronger streak of wind shear continues to affect that area. Tornadoes, hail, and damaging straight line winds will continue to be possible through 3z in eastern MN, eastern IA, and getting into western WI and IL. Later this evening, this activity will likely organize into a MCS, or complex of storms with a continued damaging wind threat through the night as they blast east through Wisconson and northern Illinois through late this evening. I will post a forecast for areas farther SW later, but right now I am paying close attention to a tornado in NE Iowa which has and still is doing heavy damage.

An Overview of all the Watches

A whole line of watches from TX to MN. The ones in MN and IA are Particularly Dangerous Situations (PDS) I will post a discussion soon.

Wow This is Going to be a BAD Evening...

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (50%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (60%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (50%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)
Another PDS tornado watch has been issued, this time it is for Iowa. As I said earlier Iowa and MN are going to see the worst severe weather this evening.

PDS Issued For MN/Northern IA

As I said about an hour ago this area looks to get hit hard this afternoon/evening. Here are the probablities for this watch:
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (50%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (60%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (50%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

Severe Weather Not Bad Now...But More Coming Later

Only two watches now and only a handful of warnings scattered across the severe risk areas at this time. However, the sun is out and is destabilizing the atmosphere in the threat areas at this time, and it is only a matter of time before storms start exploding from Wisconsin to Minnesota down to Texas to Arkansas. There are two tornado watches as of 2:45 EDT. One along the dry line for far western KS, OK and TX. Instability continues to build and there is a bit of a jet streak moving across that area, so storms will continue to pop in that watch through the afternoon and evening with a tornado, high wind, and hail threat. For the other watch there is some convergence in that area adding lift. That lifting mechanism (MCV) will only cause storms to fire faster the rest of the afternoon/evening, as it is very unstable in that area. The MCV could enhance the tornado threat in that area. So, I believe that area will see high wind/hail threats with the threat of a few tornadoes also. There is another area that will likely be put under a tornado watch by 3 or 4PM EDT. From Iowa into Minnesota. There is strong wind shear in that area, and instability is growing. It appears that as of 2:45PM EDT storms are getting ready to fire in western MN. With all the wind shear, any storms are going to quickly become severe, with hail, high winds, and tornadoes all being distinct threats. If I had to bet money I would say most of the tornadoes will come out of this region. Elsewhere along the front, Kansas, there is a severe threat because instability is extreme. However, wind shear is not that high. So for Kansas I think storms will develop with hail and high winds being the biggest threats, with isolated tornadoes being possible. Later this evening the whole package will shift east some. The biggest severe threat will be from eastern MN/NE IA/NW IL where the strongest shear will be. Tornadoes and strong winds will be the biggest threats here. It looks like this activity may organize into a MCS later tonight in WI/northern IL and blast east. The dry line in Texas/OK/KS will move east a little, but not too much. The severe threat there will continue through the evening but slowly diminish as the sun goes down in that area. The activity along the rest of the cold front in KS will shift east into MO, with a continues high wind/hail threat along with maybe an isolated tornado. The MCV will continue to bring a severe threat for southern MO/NW AR/eastern OK the rest of this afternoon. This feature will likely become less defined this evening. I will have another update in a few hours to discuss the severe threat.

Warm Up Still Coming!

A ridge of high pressure will slide east and bring warmth with it. It will only be warm for a couple of days, as a cold front will come sliding south Monday-Wednesday. Here are the forecast highs for this warm up.

Sunday-Sunday Night Severe Weather

Another active severe day tomorrow. Here is what I expect to happen:

-Setup: A low pressure system will be tracking across the US/Canadian border, trailing a cold front south through much of the central US. Warm, humid air will be building ahead of the cold front, with cooler drier air coming in behind it.

-Severe Ingredients: Dew points will reach into the 60s, as far north as MN, and will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s from IL/IA points south. CAPEs will be above 2500 into MN/WI, and will reach 4000+ in western IL, IA, and northern MO. LIs will also be anywhere from -7 to -11 in the warm sector from MN/WI down to near the Gulf Coast. These are all very good for severe WX. But, there will be a couple of limiting factors: A cap, especially farther south of the moderate risk, and little wind shear south of the moderate risk. This will keep things from getting out of control south of the moderate risk zone, but in the moderate risk the cap will be weaker and wind shear will be much higher so organized severe weather is expected in the moderate risk area.

-Forecast: Not too much convection is expected be ongoing tomorrow morning in the risk areas, maybe some weak convection along the cold front. However, tomorrow afternoon as further destabilization occurs in the warm sector, storms will start firing along and ahead of the cold front. With the high instability, severe weather is possible anywhere in the warm sector, especially near the cold front. The main modes of severe will be large hail and damaging winds. However, near in in the moderate risk, wind shear will be higher, so storms will be more organized and the tornado threat will be higher than elsewhere in the warm sector. In the moderate risk area the storms may organize into organized complex(s) or storms, or an MCS tomorrow evening which will rapidly track east tomorrow night. Again, south of the moderate risk just scattered strong to severe storms and nothing too organized.

NOTE: I really haven't been able to cover severe weather over the past few days due to being very busy, but hopefully will be able to cover it slightly better over the next couple of days.

Sunday Quickcast

More severe weather will slowly spead east, as the east warms and the west slowly cools. The east will be mainly dry, the west will see some scattered showers, and the central US will see storms, some of which will be severe. A more detailed severe outlook is being made now.

HYPE: Tropical Storm This Week? Seems Possible!

Here is my early discussion on this possible tropical system:The setup is one favorable for Tropical cyclone in the western Carribean or the East Pac. There will be a huge ridge of high pressure in the northern Atlantic, which will act to keep the westerlies, (which prevent tropical development) to the north of the possible storm. The steering currents around the high would cause anything that developes in the region in question to move towards the NNW-NNE (northerly dirrection). Also, water temps in that region appear to be warm enough for possible development. Now, are the models crazy in spinning up a low down there out of no where? Probably not. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will be running through that area, which often brings convection and lower pressures. And, it is not unusual to get little spin ups along that, especially as we get into Monsoon season, which is when there is a change in the prevailing winds. These spin ups can develop into a tropical system either in the Atlantic or East Pac, so what the models are saying is not unreasonable. Now, if this storm develops, where will it develop, and how strong will it get? At this point in time there is equal opertunity for this to develop in the Atlantic or East Pacific. We will just have to see. And, if this low pressure does indeed develop like the models show, there is nothing to stop it from at least developing into an organized tropical low, if not a depression or weak storm. Early indications are wind shear over the possible storm will not be extreme, as the westerlies will remain well north of the system. Water temps also will be warm enough. But, the sub tropical jet stream (it is weak, but still a factor) could cause enough wind shear to preven this system from getting very strong. Also, potential land interactions will also likely prevent this system from getting too strong. And down the road, once this strom gets north of about 35-40 degrees latitude, it will run into the westerlies and become extratropical if it isn't obsorbed by another system.

Summary: A low pressure will likely spin up in the western Carribean of East Pac later this week. Conditions may be favorable for this system to develop into a weak tropical system, that will move off towards the north.

Saturday Quickcast

The only real area of active weather will be in the central Planes, northern Planes, and NErn Rockies, and Florida. The showers in New England will be limited, and the showers in the west will also be limited but they will be scattered about.

TGIF! Quickcast:

Friday a ridge will continue to slide into the east bringing some drier, warmer weather (finally) and a trough will bring cool and damp weather in the western and central US. In the central US, the same storm that brought a severe outbreak today will bring more severe weather tomorrow. I really don't have time to make a severe weather outlook but you can always view the SPC's outlook here.

HIGH RISK Issued by SPC for Today's/Tonight's Outbreak

I did not get a chance to cover this outbreak nearly as well as I would have liked, as I was away from my computer from 6AM to 8PM, but when I walked in was not surprised that several super cell storms had developed over the front range of the Rockies and parts of the Planes, with already a lot of tornado reports and more storms forming. Please, if you are in the risk zones I or the SPC or any of your local news stations have specified for today/tonight, please keep your eye on the sky because this severe outbreak will continue through this evening. I have added a warning box to the upper left for all active severe or tornado warnings. Also feel free to visit my other weather website that me and another forecaster update at: http://weather-live.piczo.com/?cr=2

Extended Range Severe

I do not usually do this but this evening I will issue preliminary severe WX outlook maps for Friday and Saturday. There will be one long lasting outbreak that has already started today and will last through next Tuesday, effecting areas from the Rockies to the east coast. I will have more detailed maps for each day as we go on through this outbreak.

Thursday Quickcast...We're Getting Closer!

A trough will remain in the east, keeping things well below normal, with maybe even a little snow in the higher elevations downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The ridge will be continuing to move east, drying out the upper MW, upper GLs, and the SE and also starting to bring some mild air northward a little bit into the MW/SE. A trough will continue to push into the central US, bring a rain and severe threat. South and central TX will remain hot. The NW will still have the same trough in place for a couple more days, so things there will remain cool and a bit damp.

Thursday/Thursday Night Severe

Disscussion: For this map did not take any gambles, took what the models and SPC said and went with it since everything the models are showing look pretty straight foreward and in agreement with the SPC, so my outlook is close to the SPC outlook...A cold front will be pushing ENE into TX, OK, KS, and Nebraska. This, along with high CAPEs, dew points, and LIs should get activity going along the cold front tomorrow afternoon. This could get severe with hail and high winds. Tomorrow evening, the jet stream looks to stregnthen across the region in question, and this will enhance the damaing wind and tornado threat. The area where the moderate risk has been painted in is where I believe that the stongest wind shear and instability will best coincide. This area will probably see scattered strong to severe storms starting late tomorrow afternoon, with all modes of severe weather possible.

Early Look at Memorial Day Weekend

A long weekend awaits while we struggle through another long workweek. Yes, memorial day is already closing in, a day that signifies the un-official start to summer and a day to remember those who fell serving our great nation. So, what will the weather be like for all those barbecues, beaches, pools, and other outdoor activities that will be taking place during this 3 day weekend? Well, the ridge of high pressure that has been bringing a dry heat to the west over the last few days will continue to slide east, and should keep the eastern third of the country dry and will bring moderating temps. A trough will be digging into the west to start this weekend, but it will slide east into the central US, continuing the warmth and humidity in the Planes but also bringing a growing rain threat to the central US, which will start to slowly spread towards the east on Monday. In the west, the trough will exit by Monday, but on Saturday and Sunday some cool and possibly showery conditions will persist in the west, especially in the Rocky Mountains. By Monday things should dry out pretty nicely in the west and temps will return to near normal. Many more details coming up this week for the holiday weekend.

Tuesday Quickcast...1 Down, 4 to Go!

The ridge that has brought heat to the west over the last few days will start slowly moving east towards the central US as a tough digging off the west coast forces it east. This will bring the sunny skies and warm weather east for tomorrow, and areas in SE TX and into the four corners will get hot! A area of low pressure will slide through the Mid Atlantic bringing periods of rain, but elsewhere in the east the cold air will take a break for a day, and with any luck most of the eastern US could see some peaks of sun (outside of the Mid Atlantic) and near normal temps (finally).

Monday :( Quickcast

As you can see a ridge will persist in the SW, causing more dry heat, while a trough still keeps the east cold and damp. In the upper Great Lakes frosts and freezes will be a concern tomorrow morning, and in parts of New England and downwind of the lower Great Lakes, some snow flurries mixed into some rain showers will be a concern. Accumulations will be very light and at higher elevations if they do occur.

Cold Air Aloft Brings Severe Weather and Snow

A busy day today as very cool air moves in place, causing severe storms today and snow tonight. What is causing this unsettled weather is a series of short waves that will be rotating through the NE/GLs. Today these shortwaves will cause showers/storms to fire, and with VERY cold air aloft will cause any showers/storms to bring the threat of hail/high winds. Late tonight, as a shortwave comes through the lower Great Lakes, it will be cold enough that some of the light precip caused by that shortwave could be in the form of snow. Any accums would be very light.

PS: Sorry about not being able to post much the last couple days, but I should now be back to a more regular posting schedule.

PSS: A showers that only showed up as about 35DBZ on radar just gave me a few minutes of pea sized hail here just outside of Cleveland.

But First, We Have a Huge Cooldown to Deal With!

A huge trough is expected to really dig into the east over the next few days. This, will bring the east more unseasonably cool air and damp weather in the East starting Sunday and lasting most of this coming work week. For a lot of areas in the GLs and the NE could be stuck in the 40s/50s for highs Sunday-Thursday, with frosts/freezes in some areas at night. Friday, warm air will start surging into the southern GLs/southern Mid Atlantic, but it will take until Sunday for the warm air to completely move into northern New England. And, not only will these areas have several days of very chilly temps, the models raise the question: Will it snow Monday morning downwind of Lakes Erie/Ontario? Possibly. Surface temps will dip into the upper 30s and 850MB temps will range from -1 to -5, so maybe some wet flakes will mix in...So, before we get a brief preview of summer next weekend, we have to get a harsh reminder that it is still spring.

Warm Up Coming! 200 Posts!

A trough has been persistent in the east, with a ridge dominating the west, leading to rainy and cool weather in the east and dry and hot weather in the west. How would you like to see that pattern switch? For Memorial Day Weekend? Well, early indications on the GFS ensemble and EURO look like a ridge may build in the central US with a trough in the west. If this verifies, the eastern half of the country (may take a little longer in the eastern NE) sees some warm and drier weather for the holiday, and the weekend before it. Stay tuned because this is what we have been waiting for.

Saturday Quickcast: Finally!

The weekend is finally here. And pretty quiet weather will dominate most of the country. The exception will be the Northeast and Great Lakes where several troughs will rotate around an area of low pressure south of Hudson Bay. This will keep the threat of rain for the whole northeast through the weekend, with some cooler weather spilling SE, especially by Sunday. In the west things remain HOT!

TGIF! Quickcast:

Basically cool and rainy in the east, hot and dry in the west tomorrow. For more detail, the Quickcast map has been posted above!

NE Rainfall Map:

This is my rainfall map for 7pm Thursday through Saturday AM. There is just a ton of dry air to the north. The block is weakening some but with the dry air in place the block should be able to keep the storm to the south, so as I said yesterday the NAM and EURO look reasonable, so those models and the current radar are what I based my rain map off of. The only area that could see over an inch is where the rain could become a little convective tomorrow afternoon/evening. Otherwise this storm is quick moving and not that rich with moisture so one inch amounts elsewhere will be hard to come by.

Thursday/Thursday Night Severe

Pretty much in line with the SPC, as this isn't a really tough forecast. A cold front will be pushing south, with a low pressure riding along the northern portion of it. There will be a ton of moisture pooled in the south, with some day time heating, and a piece of jet stream energy moving through. This will get storms going, some possibly severe. Hail and high winds appear to be the highest threats with maybe some isolated tornadoes. Not a great severe set up overall as instability will be lacking some, and there will only be some shear in place, but still some severe storms tomorrow afternoon/night in the SE.

Thursday Quickcast

Here is Thursday's quickcast, for an accurate, easy to read forecast for every location in the nation.

Wednesday Severe Map Verification

Tuesday evening I issued a bit of a bold severe weather outlook. How did it verify? Well, there was a large bust area, due to cloud cover. However, most other forecasts also had that area in a moderate risk, including the SPC. The part I gambled on was extending the risk zones into central and northern IL. However, that area actually had the highest concentration of severe reports, so I say that part of the forecast verified. Farther south in OK/TX the forecast was OK, so in general my overall grade for this forecast is a B-...not bad but it could have been better...

Wednesday/Wednesday Severe Discussion:

Tomorrow a low pressure will be tracking across the deep south, and there will be a few focal points for severe weather with this:
TX Dryline:
-Dew points in the 60s/low 70s, CAPEs of over 2500, and LIs of -6 to -10 will all contribute to a Texas severe threat tomorrow. Normally, this may constitute a moderate risk, but there will really be a lack of low level jet stream energy (wind shear) and there may be a cap in place to limit the severe weather. So, for now only a slight risk. However, tomorrow evening when some isolated to scattered storms develop, some could be highly severe, so even though this is a slight risk all modes of severe weather, some of it significant will likely occur along a dry line in TX tomorrow evening. Warm front advancing NE (rest of the slight risk, it could move through a lot of states):
-Dew points will be rising into the high 60s/low 70s south of the warm front, and there will be CAPEs of into the 1000-2000 range throughout the night along and just south of the warm front, LIs of -4 to -8 along and south of the warm front, and some shear will combine to create a ongoing severe threat along the warm front starting late tomorrow across AR/LA and advancing ENE throughout tomorrow night. It appears that hail will be the biggest threat, but with the added shear I cannot rule out some tornadoes and straight line wind damage with the warm front convection tomorrow/tomorrow night.

Wednesday Quickcast

The Wednesday Quickcast forecast map. I will post a severe weather map soon, as some severe weather is expected, and post a forecast verification map for yesterday's map soon.

Rainfall Forecast

Several waves of low pressure will ride along a stalled out cold front in the south over the coarse of the next 4 days. This will cause several different waves of storms to develop along the front. These waves of storms will cause rain totals to add up to several inches over a large area, so flooding is possible. NOTE: These rainfall totals are a general forecast, but since t-storms can often be scattered in nature and sometimes can train over the same area for a long time, localized areas could see less or more than indicated.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night Severe Weather *Outbreak*

Reduced: 75% of original size [ 541 x 474 ] - Click to view full image

Here is my severe weather map for tomorrow/tomorrow night. What is the method to my madness? Here is my discussion:
For the dryline in Texas:
-Plentiful moisture, with dew points of 68-72+, CAPEs of 3500, LIs of less than -8, and directional wind shear will allow isolated storms to develop along the dryline in central Texas late tomorrow afternoon. However, it appears that a cap will be in place, which will hopefully keep the severe threat from getting too out of hand. But, with the isolated to widely scattered storms that develop along the dryline in Texas, huge hail appears to be a big threat, especially with the very high instability. However, with the directional wind shear in place tornadoes are also possible tomorrow evening along the TX dryline. Also, some damaging strait line wind gusts are possible.
For the cold front over eastern OK, SW MO, western AR, and later at night northern TX:
-Dew points will be in the mid to upper 60s, with CAPEs of 1500-3000, LIs of -6 to -10, and some directional and a little vertical wind shear will fuel severe storms which will start to develop tomorrow afternoon. The difference in this area will be less of a cap, which is why I chose to put this area under a moderate risk. So, I expect scattered storms to develop along the cold front starting tomorrow afternoon, with all modes of severe weather possible, with some of the stronger storms producing significant severe weather also.
For the cold front from central MO into parts of IL/IA:
-Dew points will be a little lower, 60-65, CAPEs will only be in the 1000 range, and LIs will range from 2 to -4, however there will be some vertical and directional wind shear. Despite some of the parameters being marginal for severe, I put the southern portion of this area into a moderate risk and the whole area, all the way up into Chicago into a slight risk because of the stronger piece of jet stream energy moving over the area. I have a feeling that in the late afternoon/evening that some storms, perhaps strong to only marginally severe will develop, but with the wind shear I am a little concerned about some damaging winds/tornadoes with these storms. I am going out on a limb here but the higher wind shear would support that type of severe weather even that far north.
Overnight in TX: A low pressure will begin developing over central TX Tuesday night, and this could cause abundant showers and storms to develop late tomorrow night in southern TX. All modes of severe appear possible.
On a side note: GO CAVS!

Tuesday Quickcast

Tuesday's Quickcast, for and accurate, straight to the point forecast for the whole country. As is shown on the image, severe weather is likely in the southern Planes tomorrow. A map will be issued later.

Monday's Quickcast

Need a forecast but don't have the time? Well, check out Monday's Quickcast. It is an easy, accurate, no nonsense forecast designed specifically to let you know what to be prepared for, without needing to read a page long discussion.

Final Storm Map

The storm is tracking a little farther south than the models showed yesterday, so I have changed the rainfall amounts to reflect it. Still, 2-3" amounts look good in the southern Mid Atlantic, where minor flooding is expected. It will be very windy on the coast north of the low, with winds coming off the water and a strong May storm, so 40-50MPH gusts are possible. *Note: Amounts shown are for storm total rainfall after 9PM Saturday night, so the amounts shown over the south and Midwest may have already fallen.

Severe Weather: Updated Map and Discussion:

Severe weather is ongoing across SE Georgia/SE South Carolina. This will be moving off the coast soon but I have issued a moderate risk for it.
-A cold front will be moving SE today through the southeast. There is plenty of moisture/wind shear along it for severe weather...the question is: Will the area destabilize enough? I believe it will take all of this morning and even into this afternoon to start seeing some severe threat along the front, because we need to destabilize the atmosphere after last night's/this mornings storms. However, once we get things going all modes of severe seem possible, however with a strong jet blasting over the area damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the bigger threats. Hail will occur in stronger storms, but with less day time heating than some of the areas saw yesterday we shouldn't see hail bigger than gulf balls in the strongest storms. Even though last nights MCS is only affecting a very small area of the SE, I have put a lot of the eastern Carolina's into a moderate risk because things will have most of this afternoon to destabilize, and there will still be plenty of low level jet stream energy in this area, so this is where the most significant severe WX is expected today.

Tomorrow Severe and Nor' Easter Maps:

Maps...enjoy! I will have full discussions in the morning.

9:20PM Nowcast:

There are three areas of concern, all of which are or soon will be seeing organized severe weather. One area which has been north of the warm front in AR/TN/MI, and has gotten much more organized with several super cell storms in it. This area appears to be trying to orgainize into a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) so the damaging straight line wind threat will increase in addition to the ongoing tornado threat in that area. Along the cold front in AR there are still scattered storms, some of which are severe, but in northern AR along the cold front the threat has diminished some as there has been less daytime heating there. Expect storms to erupt in southern AR/eastern TX as the cold front continues to overtake the dryline. All modes of severe will be possible in that area.

7:15 Nowcast:

Here is my new Nowcast update. There are three areas of concern, the biggest one outlined in the white oval, where instability is very high and shear is also high. This is where big tornadoes could occur. These will shift east in AR this evening and will bring a tornado threat for most of the state, although once they get towards NE AR they may weaken some due to less instability. In TX it looks like things are trying to fire but I think activity along the dry line will be more isolated.

5:30 EDT Nowcast:

My latest nowcast. Oval area is where I think the worst weather will be before 23z/7PM EDT. We'll see what can get going on the dry line in TX. Still looks capped down there, but on satellite and radar things are clearly about to explode over OK. Front now on top of Tulsa...west of there threat has ended, but east of it look out.

Morning Re-Analysis: Still Looks Bad...

The warm front looks as if it will push farther NE than expected yesterday. This has lead to a larger area of severe risk. New Discussion:
-There will be three focal points for severe weather today. A warm front, a dry line, and a cold front. Here is the warm front discussion:
-A warm front will lift NE throughout the day today. It is currently located along the LA/AR border and will be lifting NE. North of the warm front, the air mass is not all that warm and unstable, but south of it, it is. So, it looks like throughout the day storms will be firing along and south of the warm front, and move north of the warm front. An enhanced area of jet energy will be moving along and south of the warm front today. This will be where the first area of big storms will likely develop. It will likely begin to get active along this feature in AR/N.Louisiana/E Oklahoma. Super cells with potentially huge hail due to CAPEs of well over 2000, LIs of less than -8, DPs in the 70s, and hot temperatures will occur. Also tornadoes will be a very large threat, along with damaging winds. It will shift east into eastern AR, SE Missouri, and western TN late this evening which is when conditions will be best for tornadoes. I believe this area is where we could have some large, damaging tornadoes. The threat will shift into the SE tonight as this little jet stream feature pushes east. This severe weather may organize into a derecho as it pushes east late this evening. Either way the high severe threat will linger throughout the night
-In the warm sector along the dry line and the cold front that will catch up to it, instability will be extreme along with very high dew points, and a strengthening jet stream. This will cause super cells to develop in the warm sector, with a lot of them focused along the dry line/cold front to develop late this afternoon. Tornadoes will be a threat but not as big of one as in the areas I mentioned above. Huge hail will also be a big threat. As the evening goes on damaging winds will be a growing threat, as it appears that late this evening the storms will organize into a large squall line along the cold front, with a continued hail threat and a high damaging wind threat. This squall line will push ESE very quickly tonight along the cold front.
-More updates later.

Saturday/Saturday Night Severe...oh boy This Could be a Doosey...

A severe weather outbreak is expected in the southeast US starting tomorrow afternoon and lasting through Monday. The map above represents the severe weather risk for tomorrow through tomorrow night. Detailed discussion:

-A storm system will be developing in the Planes tomorrow. It will pull north a lot of Gulf moisture into the southeast. A strong cold front will be plunging south into the hot and humid air mass and storms will fire.

-Tomorrow afternoon a dry line will develop and move through central/eastern TX and eastern/southeastern OK. Some of the models (especially GFS) are showing limited development, due to some capping along the dry line. However, I believe this is incorrect because dew points will be in the 60s/70s along the dry line, CAPEs will be anywhere from 3,000-4,500, and LIs will be -7 to -12 along the dry line. It appears that this moisture will also be very deep. This should allow storms to break the cap along the dry line and explosive development is possible late afternoon/evening. All modes of severe appear likely, with HUGE hail (baseball of larger) possible in the stronger storms, along with a high tornado threat. The low level jet will not be exceptionally strong but there will be plenty of turning of the winds with height so storms will rotate late tomorrow.

-Late tomorrow evening the cold front will catch up to the dry line. At this point in time the low level jet will be roaring along and behind the cold front as much cooler air comes in. This will likely cause linear development along the cold front tomorrow night across S. Missouri/SE Arkansas/Louisiana/east Texas. Hail and very strong winds will be the main threats but the tornado threat will still be there, although it will be smaller. This activity will quickly shift ESE through the night and will likely form into an organized MCS with a long lasting damaging wind threat throughout the night.

-Farther north along the cold front in Missouri and into IL/IN there will be marginal instability and moisture, but with such a strong cold front coming in that will likely be sufficient for a thunderstorm threat with localized damage winds.

-Tomorrow morning I will re-assess and may consider a HIGH risk.

Saturday-Tuesday Storm

A quick and simple forecast map and expected evolution of this storm. This could be a decent late season Nor' Easter, with a classic secondary and everything. The GFS ensemble and EURO are in very good agreement on the track of the low, so I am fairly confident in it at this time. At this point I think the more conservative EURO is going to win out over the stronger GFS in the strength department, because this is not winter and it is very hard to get such a strong storm this time of year because the temperature extremes are a little bit less extreme. I will not try to guess at rainfall amounts at this time, but will likely be making an early map for that tomorrow. This storm will also be pulling in unseasonably cold air so maybe some of the higher mountains in New England could see a couple snow flakes mixed in Monday night, but it will not be a big deal and it is also not a done deal by any means, but that is what I will be looking at this weekend. There is also a severe threat in the south that will need to be addressed over the next couple of days.

Rain, Rain, Go AWAY!

An area of low pressure is tracking through the east this afternoon, bringing with it rain, cool air, and some severe weather in the south. The rain has added up to 2-3" for a lot of areas in the Mid West, and has dumped locally up to .5" in the east already. And it is continuing to push east, and will leave widespread 1-3" totals (yesterday's map looks good). While these amounts are not enough to cause widespread flooding, they will saturate the ground pretty good, and with another storm expected Sunday-Monday and another one later next week, flooding will be a growing concern. More on those storms later this evening.

Severe Analysis: Threat Remains High in Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas This Evening

800 x 600 (98.97K)

As you can see wind shear values are high in the SE US. This along with CAPEs of over 1000, temps near 80, and dew points in the 60s has allowed storms to really get going in the southeast, especially over Alabama. These storms will transition ENE tonight into N.Georgia and the Carolinas as wind shear remains high and instability and moisture remain sufficient.

Thursday/Thursday Night Severe

Not a huge outbreak but it will be unstable enough with plenty of moisture and some wind shear in the slight risk area. Do not think widespread severe will occur but hail/high winds are the primary threats. Can not rule out tornadoes with some jet stream energy and high helicity. More on this with a severe analysis tomorrow afternoon around 3:50PM.

Rainstorm Disscusion

Here is my full info on the storm that is producing some severe weather in the south now and that will produce rain and wind for the east coast.

Reduced: 65% of original size [ 624 x 540 ] - Click to view full image

I know it may look a bit confusing with all those layers on top of each other so here is a little key:
The blue is where wind gusts of 30-40MPH are likely.
The red (makes the rain predictions under it look kind of brown) represents where severe weather is possible.
The greens/yellows are the rainfall forecasts. These colors may be slightly different if severe weather or wind gust forecasts are on top of it, but you can still tell where the different amounts are.
Discussion:
The models have strengthened the storm by a few millibars over the last day or so. However, the operational GFS remains the strongest, and the EURO looks the most constant. So I will go with a split of the GFS ensemble and EURO for strength of the low. As for the track, the EURO looks a little too slow and a little too far south. I am saying this because there will be some weak ridging in the Atlantic/Gulf which will push the storm northward some:

1000 x 600 (80.45K)

As you can see on that 500MB height anomaly map for 12z Friday, there will be some weak ridging in the areas I mentioned. (remember, on those maps greens/yellows are ridging, blues/purples are troughiness) The ridging will be fairly weak and won't be enough to push the storm back into the Great Lakes, but I think it will keep it from tracking as far south as the EURO would indicate. So, for the track I went with a blend of the GFS ensemble and EURO with emphasis on the GFS ensemble. As for winds, it does look like the storm will be a few millibars stronger than before, but chances are it still won't get below 990-994MB at any point off the east coast, but with a weak high behind the storm and cooler air coming in, wind gusts of 25-35MPH are likely inland with gusts of 30-locally 40MPH along the coast and over water. Now, for rainfall forecasts I will change my prediction from last night now that I have gotten a better look. The storm looks like it has slowed down some and will get a little stronger than originally though, so I brought rainfall totals up. I think across southern New England/the Mid Atlantic widespread 1-2" rain amounts will fall. I do not think more than that will fall in those areas, because farther west where my 2-3" stripe is (where some flooding is possible) there will be strong convection to the south to feed the rain, and there will be more moisture, but as you approach the east coast you loose the gulf connection some and it looks like there will not be as much convection wrapping up into the rain area as farther west, so only 1-2" of rain there. I think 3-4" amounts are highly unlikely on the east coast because there will not be a lot of convection or heavy rain bursts that are needed to get those amounts in a storm like this.

***For here in Ohio it looks like a decent bought of rain is likely. Expect the rain to start this evening in the form of showers and to pick up tonight into a steady, moderate rain that will last most of tomorrow and into tomorrow night. 1-2" of rain is expected in northern Ohio with over 2" in southern and especially southwestern Ohio. Some minor flooding problems are possible but the ground is very dry and the rain will not come down at the rate needed to get major flooding. Also expect chilly conditions with temps stuck in the upper 50s/lower 60s the next couple of days.

***For severe weather yesterdays map/discussion looks good, although the threat has passed for the western portions of the threat area. For up to date info on this outbreak including warnings, visit www.weather.gov and for a very good interactive radar map visit www.wunderground.com and click on the Wundermap link on the homepage.

10-14 Day Outlook

Ridging will continue to dominate in the west with dry, sunny weather with above normal temperatures. In the east a very persistent trough of low pressure looks likely, meaning lots of rain and chilly weather, and more than likely not the sunny, hot, summer weather we are waiting for.
Individual Storms (hype):
-Cut off low over New England most of the 5/18-22 period (ugh!). Could be lots of clouds, rain, and not much warm weather...with a trough dominating the east (if this pans out) a large storm with a severe outbreak is unlikely between 5/18-5/22.

6-10 Day Forecast

For the anamolies/patterns, it looks like troughiness will dominate over the the eastern 2/3 of the country. This will easily bring below to well below normal temps in much of the east, except for the deep south. With all these systems that this weather pattern will bring much of the east will also see above average precipitation. It appears the west will start out below normal temp wise but a ridge will be quickly building in by day 7, so it should average out to above normal temps in the west and very dry in the west also.
Individual Storm Opportunities:
-A storm appears to move W-E across most of the east from the 14th-17th ish. This looks to bring more below normal temps to the north and more severe chances to the south.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night Severe:

Here is my discussion:
Severe weather is expected tomorrow along a cold front from the lower Great Lakes through the southern Planes/Lower Mississippi valley. A MCS (I think I found the right abbreviation) will likely be ongoing tomorrow morning in IA/northern Missouri. Damaging winds are possible along with flooding rains with this. Tomorrow morning this will continue to blast east and will likely weaken as it moves towards IL/IN/OH. However, some convection will likely start firing along the cold front late tomorrow afternoon from Michigan into IL, IN, western KY, Missouri. It appears debris clouds from the morning convection will litter the sky in these areas most of the day. This will keep temps, CAPEs, and LIs down. This will limit how severe and widespread the PM storms can get. I think north of southern Missouri that the PM showers/storms will be scattered and the severe threat will not be that great, so just a few reports of hail/high winds are expected from Michigan into northern/central Missouri, and a very outside chance of a couple tornado reports.
NOW THE IMPORTANT PART!
Over Arkansas/NE Texas, it appears that there will be at least some sun most of the day Wednesday. CAPEs will be in the 1000-2000 range with negative LIs, there will be a strong LLJ, and wind shear tomorrow afternoon/evening over these areas. It looks like tomorrow afternoon storms will start firing over NE Texas. Surface temps will be warm but a cool pool will be developing aloft. This could allow for very large hail and damaging downburst winds tomorrow afternoon/evening in the moderate risk area. The wind shear will also cause a tornado risk. These storms will push east in AR tomorrow evening with continued huge hail, damaging straight line wind, and tornado threats. Tomorrow night as the storms push farther east into Mississippi/TN it looks like they will weaken due to the loss of instability. This is the area to watch tomorrow. Farther north instability will just be too low.

Tuesday Severe

Severe map discussion for Tuesday-Tuesday night:

The bottom map represents the severe setup. As you can see moisture will be pooling. It also shows where the focus areas will be...the dry line, cold front, and the warm front will also be the focal point of some convection. Along the dry line, drier air will meet up with dew points of 63-68. Also, winds will be SSE across ahead of the dry line and SSW behind it. This convergence, along with high dew points, LIs of -5 to -9, CAPEs of 1000+, and increasing wind shear will likely cause convection to fire late tomorrow afternoon along the dry line. The convection will likely become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornado threats. Storms will be isolated to scattered along the dry line but they will be super cells with the potential for extreme severe weather (70MPH+ straight line winds, 2"+ hail, or tornadoes). Along the cold front diving south into the NW Planes, moisture will also be pooling with dew points into the 60-66 range. There will also be converging winds along this boundary, LIs of -5 to -9, CAPEs of 2000+, however the jet stream will not be that strong. So, I think that storms will begin developing in the warm sector ahead of the cold front late afternoon. It looks like very large hail is possible, along with isolated damaging downdraft winds. A few tornadoes are possible also with winds coming at different directions at different heights...although they will not be extremely strong. Along the cold front as the jet stream strengthens at night the storms may organize into a MCC. Some flooding is possible because a MCC can dump inches of rain over a large area quickly. Along the warm front in the lower Great Lakes and into Wisconsin some moisture will be pooling, but DPs will only be in the 50-55 range, and CAPEs will only be in the 200-500 range. These values are rather unfavorable for severe weather, but with very cold air aloft and low freezing levels, lapse rates will be steep and any convection could produce small hail.

Tomorrow's Severe: Day 1 of 4

A low pressure will begin developing along an old frontal boundary tomorrow, and will spark off some storms. I do not think tomorrow will be a huge severe day but some severe is expected. Here is what I think will happen:
-Moisture return from the gulf has set up over the southern Plains. So it appears that south of Nebraska dew points will be into the 60s by tomorrow evening. This along with plenty of daytime heating tomorrow will result in storms popping by evening. CAPE values are expected to be over 1000 in much of the slight risk areas with LI's in the -6 to -8 range, so things will definitely be unstable enough for scattered storms with large hail/damaging winds by evening.
-Tomorrow night wind shear will increase some in the warm sector. This will enhance the threat for large hail and may also introduce a tornado threat.
-In summary scattered storms will develop in the warm sector with a hail/high wind risk with the stronger storms. Tomorrow night the wind threat will increase and isolated tornadoes are possible as wind shear increases.

More Severe Weather This Week?

We very well could have another multiple day severe weather outbreak...I have posted the 0z GFS image (8PM EDT) for each day where severe weather is possible...and will now break the possible outbreak down day by day:
-Tomorrow/Tomorrow night will not be that bad. Right now there is a small slight risk on the SPC day 2 outlook. For tomorrow it looks like the surface low will just be starting to develop across the Plains. Across the Southern Plains it looks like moisture will start returning from the gulf today and will be plentiful by tomorrow. This along with high CAPE values and a poorly defined dry line will allow scattered storms to pop from SW Texas up into OK/KS. Due to high amounts of shear and moisture some storms could become severe. The winds aloft will not be that strong tomorrow across the area in question, but will be coming from all sorts of directions so some storms could spawn tornadoes. Expect a map for this later today.
-Tuesday/Tuesday night there will be a bigger threat area. It appears that cold air will try to dive south across the Great Lakes/Northern Plains. This will likely spawn storms along the cold front that will be slowly pushing south from the Great Lakes to the Central Plains. It appears that this front may not get really active until later Tuesday evening but may stay active most of Tuesday night due to the jet stream speeding up and a 10-20 degree temp diff on either side of the front. This bodes well for a damaging wind threat.
-Wednesday/Wednesday night another low will develop over the Panhandle of Texas and slide ENE. This will be very interesting, almost like a winter time Panhandle hook in the early May. There will be very chilly air to the north of the system and warm, moist, and unstable air south of the system. There will also be an energetic low level jet across the deep south with this system. I will not get into specifics now since we are still several days but this will likely produce severe weather across the deep south Wednesday/Thursday.

Severe Update

The map above is a forecast verification map...more details below...
Very strong storms are occurring in western KY, TN, SE AR, and northern Mississippi. But why are the storms in northern IL under performing? And what will happen tonight? How do I rate my performance so far? Answers below!
The highest instability is south of IL, and in the areas where I said the strongest storms occurring. Farther north, instability and moisture is marginal for severe weather. Wind shear is very strong over the whole system. So, where there is lower instability there are strong storms with small hail and isolated damaging winds, but where there is more instability there are strong storms with huge hail, damaging winds and at times tornadoes. Tonight, the storms in IL/IN may form into a broken squall line with an isolated severe threat, but I think what will likely happen is they will slowly weaken as we go through tonight. Farther south, super cells are likely through the rest of this evening, but I think they will organize into a squall line with more of a damaging wind threat as the storms push east tonight. How do I rate my performance? Yesterday, I give myself an A. The worst severe weather was exactly where I put the moderate risk, the squall line developed in the evening as I expected, however, for 1-2 hours the super cells along the dry line got a little more widespread than I though, but it was still evident that a strong cap was in place because after sundown the dry line storms weakened. Today I give myself a B-/C+. I was suspecious of the instability in IL, but, I though for sure a squall line would get going by this evening with maybe some super cells ahead of the squall line. However, the squall line is just getting going now in mid evening, with no super cells. Considering I had most of IL in a hatched zone and moderate risk that will take quite a few points off of my metaphoric grade. However, farther south I made up for it. I nailed the AR/KY/TN threats. However, I did not extend the moderate risk farther east so a few more "points" off. Overall I nailed Thursday but busted in IL Friday. What I learned and need to get into my head is that clouds will limit the severe threat. This is not the first outbreak where I have busted in one area because of clouds limiting instability.

Friday/Friday Night Severe...Brief Disscusion and Map

Here is my map for tomorrow/tomorrow night. Just wanted to get it out there. Here is a brief discussion:
-Storms will be ongoing 12z Friday across Missouri/Arkansas. These could be severe in the morning, but will quickly weaken.
-The strongest axis of jet stream energy will ride from Missouri/AK in the morning towards IL/IN. After 18z it should destabilize enough for storms to start firing along the cold front. Along the front the best threat will be high winds. The question is will be how many clouds will be in the sky to keep down daytime heating. If the skies clear out in the warm sector tomorrow, not only will there be a squall line along the cold front, but discrete super cells ahead of the squall line. Tomorrow a cap does not appear to be a problem, so we could have many super cells with tornado threats ahead of the squall line. I do think that super cells will develop tomorrow afternoon, so we could have a number of tornadoes... I am now out for tonight...I will update tomorrow between 330 and 4PM EDT...if there is enough daytime heating in the warm sector...I may go all the way up to high risk somewhere in the current moderate risk zone...

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK

Well I was out for about two hours this evening...when I left, scattered storms were just starting to develop...when I got back there were reports of huge tornadoes on the ground and the dry line was completely lit up with storms. Now, as we are loosing day time heating at around 10EDT, the storms are starting to die down as a strong cap was in place. As I said, it looked like the models may have been over doing the moisture this afternoon, and were still showing bone dry mid-levels this evening. But, the moisture was much deeper, and was more than enough to get scattered super cell thunderstorms going. The dry line activity will remain scattered through at least midnight tonight with a tornado risk on any storm that really gets going. However, the cold front will catch up to the dry line after 5z tonight. At this point the cold front will likely light up, especially in the moderate risk area on my map which has already gotten pounded. These storms will have more of a damaging wind threat but some tornadoes cannot be ruled out. As an early assessment of my forecast I put the moderate risk in the right spot...although things got more active than I originally though. I originally though just isolated to widely scattered storms on the dry line, but at one point most of the dry line had scattered to widespread thunderstorms. So the moisture got deeper than expected and allowed the cap to break this evening. Now as we loose daytime heating the cap is starting to suppress the storms again. But as I said more activity will develop tonight.

Tonights Severe Weather Disscusion

I have updated my map for tonights severe weather, shaving some off the eastern edge of the risk zone do to models slowing down the front some. Otherwise everything is going according to plan. Here is what I expect to happen tonight: A few super cells will try to develop along the dry line from SE Nebraska into central OK, and maybe extreme northern TX. These super cells will likely be few and far between, because of the strong cap, but with the high CAPEs and wind shear aloft any storms that do develop could be severe and tornado producing along the dry line this evening. Later tonight, after 3z the cold front will begin overtaking the dry line. At this point the moisture will be a little more abundant, and the cold front will likely provide enough lift to break the cap. This will likely cause storms to break out along the cold front from far northern Texas all the way up into far SE Nebraska between 3z and 6z. The tornado threat will be slightly elevated with these storms, but with the loss of day time heating should not get out of control. These storms will pack a damaging wind threat with the strong jet stream energy that will be blowing over the cold front at this time. I will have more on tomorrows threat later.